The provincial election of West Bengal (WB) in India started on 27th last month. First time the elections are going to be held in 8 phases. There will be multiple rounds of voting in one district. South 24 Parganas district has been most considered as one of the valued constituency of multiple rounds of voting. However, polling in Birbhum, Jhargram, Kochbihar, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, North Dinajpur, South Dinajpur and West Burdwan will be held on the same day. In Karshiyong district there is only one assembly seat. Even in Kolkata, there are two rounds of voting this time. Voting in the metropolitan area will be held in the seventh and eighth phases. According to the election schedule, elections were held in 30 seats in the first phase on March 27 in the state. In the second phase on April 1, voting took place in 30 constituencies. Voting of 31 seats in third phase will take on April 8. In the fourth phase, voting will be held on April 10 in 44 constituencies. After that, on April 17, the fifth round of voting will take place in 45 constituencies. Voting in the sixth phase will be held on April 22 in 43 constituencies. In the seventh phase, voting will be held in 36 constituencies on April 28. Voting in the eighth phase will be held on April 29 for 35 seats. The election results will be announced on May 2.
However, rising gas prices at the moment, the impact of the central peasant movement, religious polarization, Pamela cocaine scandals could put the The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a Hindu nationalist party, in crisis. Again Trinamool Congress (TMC)’s Prashant Kishore and Abhishek Banerjee’s authority, coal scandal, Narda scandal, Katmani scandal can also lead to crisis. On the other hand, the Congress and left alliance with Abbasi could also be in crisis. For the BJP, the covid-19 vaccine can improve the situation. The Kanyashree program can help create a congenial environment for the Trinamool. In the midst of all, we have to wait until May 2 to see who will take the last smile. Will the management of West Bengal be in the hands of non-communal forces? There are list of questions.
Political analysts think that this is a big challenge for the TMC. On the other hand, in order to establish its dominance over the culture of Bengal, BJP is trying to create an impact on the political arena on Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose, Rabindranath Tagore and Swami Vivekananda. Apart from that, the Trinamool wants to keep Bihar’s opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with them in the Hindi-speaking areas by giving them 3 to 5 seats.
Neither the Trinamool nor the BJP will get a majority in the 2021 assembly elections, such a hint was found in the polls of Bengal. According to a CNX poll report, Abhas – Trinamool and BJP will come to a halt before touching the magic figure. The Left-Congress-ISF alliance could become the kingmaker in the face of the Trinamool and the BJP. Left-Congress-ISF alliance facilitates Geruya Shibir Left-Congress-ISF alliance is giving a glimpse to the Trinamool Congress in the polls. As a result, the TMC vote is declining compared to the previous poll. The vote is 3 percent less. On the contrary, BJP is taking advantage on the TMC vote for Left-Congress-ISF alliance.
At the same time when the Hindu vote is being polarized against the minority vote bank, the Mamata Banerjee government has taken steps to appease the Hindu sentiment. Development boards have been formed for the Matuas. Thus, the people of West Bengal have never seen such electoral politics of identity. Even the Left could not deny identity politics. Abbas Siddiqui created the ISF based on the Muslim entity. The leftists did not hesitate to join hands with that organization. They know that they will not be able to stand in the politics of West Bengal without the Muslim vote. Even the BJP is also mulling alliance itself with the ISF from the place of Hindu identity to the place of Muslim identity. Mamata Banerjee has tried to address the Muslim identity. Identity Politics has come to the fore in the West Bengal election, which has never been seen in the past. That is why many call this election a historic election. Besides, people will never think that the election will be taken to the stage of ordinary playing. Various songs are coming up as the Prime Minister or the central leadership has virtually declared war to win by any means. On the contrary, Mamata Banerjee is trying to retain her dominance in West Bengal politically.
For several days now, Indian newspapers have been reporting that Prime Minister Modi is paying special attention to his visit to Bangladesh in the context of his country’s electoral politics. The Anandabazar in Kolkata or the Hindustan Times in Delhi have made it clear that the vote of the Matua community is especially important in the forthcoming elections in West Bengal. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a Hindu nationalist party led by Prime Minister Modi, is now using all sorts of tactics to get a majority in the West Bengal state assembly. As part of that strategy, Modi is trying to win the support and sympathy of the Matua community. Although Modi visited on the occasion of the golden jubilee of Bangladesh’s independence and the birth centenary of Bangabandhu, his visit included the Harichand-Guruchand temple at Orakandi in Kashiani upazila of Gopalganj and the Jessoreswari Kali temple at Shyamnagar in Satkhira.
It is assumed that in the West Bengal Lok Sabha election many equations and formulas are working in it. Communalism, non-communalism, Bengali racialism, Indian nationalism, Hindu sentiment, Muslim sentiment, NRC issue altogether have made this election very historic. No monopoly polarization or support is found in favor of any particular party. Nobody can predict who will win or who will administer West Bengal. Only after the election result, one can say it is BJP or TMC will be in power.
(Dr. Forqan is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar & VDP).
