Ibne Siraj :
A new wave of heat is now sweeping Asia after the visit of US President Barack H Obama to India with traditional allies China and Pakistan not giving a welcoming look at it. As Obama was overwhelmingly received at New Delhi’s republic day parade, China is now planning a more exposing such occasion, where Russian President Vladimir Putin will be invited to show the world how sweetly close can be the two superpowers with their diplomacy. Beijing has declared that Putin would be the chief guest at China’s grand military parade this time to mark the Second World War’s 70th anniversary, apparently to prove that the 30-year gas supply agreement between Moscow and Beijing would further be cemented in their other areas of diplomacy. When Obama wrapped up his second India visit, Beijing’s reactions ranged from cautious to critical and then to dismissive, even as US-India ties surged on a civil nuclear deal. When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Obama pushed through with the civil nuclear deal in the midst of public display of affection, China called the bonhomie a “superficial rapprochement” as well as “more symbolic than pragmatic.”
Xinhua says, “Three days are surely not enough for Obama and Modi to become true friends, given their hard differences on issues like climate change, agricultural disputes and nuclear energy cooperation.” What further irked China was Obama’s bid to include India in the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG), with reports suggesting that it would back India’s arch-rival Pakistan to also get an entry. But China believes such an inclusion should be at par with integrity and effectiveness of the regime and decision should be consensus-based. By the way, China stopped short of completely dismissing India’s NSG entry, stating that it will “support India’s inclusion into this group if it meets all the requirements”, putting pressure on India to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, in a move to hit back at India for jointly criticizing China over its presence in the South China sea with the US, Beijing called Pakistan an “irreplaceable all-weather friend”, when Pakistani Army Chief General Raheel Sharif met with Chinese leaders in Beijing. Things are now clear how strong is the bond between Beijing and Islamabad.
China finally seemed to shake off its cautious stance, with a commentary in Xinhua that “Beijing’s ties with New Delhi was ‘little impacted’ by the visit of Obama, probably one of the most high-profile guests ever attending the Republic Day Parade in India. But his presence there this time is not expected to significantly impact the longstanding China-India relations.” While pointing at certain persistent thorns in the Indo-China ties, the commentary ended on a positive note, dismissing speculations of the US President’s trip impacting relations between the neighbors. “China and India do have their differences, with the most outstanding ones in relation to their border disputes. However, aside from China’s repeated declaration of its intention to settle border disputes with India peacefully at an early date, there are other cases in point that could serve as testament of growing rapport between Beijing and New Delhi, with the latest being joint new year celebrations by the two sides at a bordering area on Jan 1,” it said. “(While) the ongoing Obama trip in India may succeed in propelling the US-India relationship forward, it could hardly change the ground reality that India also needs China as a crucial cooperation partner”.
During Putin’s visit to India, it was again demonstrated that Moscow and New Delhi do have quite a bit to gain from continuing close bilateral ties. As Russia is India’s largest source of defense imports in the post-Cold War era, additionally India’s push for civilian nuclear power requires relentless cooperation between these two countries on energy. The benefits for Moscow include India’s status as a stable client state for defense hardware and New Delhi’s willingness, if not to back Russia outright at a time of global isolation, at least to continue business as usual. In fact, India and Russia continue to enjoy a solid give-and-take relationship. Mutual interests are acknowledged and considered by both sides in high-level diplomatic interactions yielding tangible benefits for the both. In many ways, of course, the real question shouldn’t be whether Modi is willing to lead India away from non-alignment by abandoning Russia. Non-alignment, at least since the 1970s, has been a misnomer for Indian foreign policy given India’s partnership with Russia. Since the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation in 1971, non-alignment has come to mean maintaining a healthy distance from the United States.
Obama’s visit now means that the world’s two old democracies need a flawless strategic tie, as both the countries have apparently opened a door to advance their relations beyond just as arms traders. Analysts find the most important thing that Modi has shifted away from India’s past foreign policy of ‘non-alignment’ towards a sharper strategic focus. His move signals that India is no longer afraid to show a more strategic US-India partnership on own interest. The US-India defense relationship started on a tough footing even after the end of the 1998 US-imposed nuclear test sanctions on India. In addition to memories of 1998 US sanctions, America’s arms sales to Pakistan have always been a cause of concern for India. By the same token, suspicious of India’s close ties with Russia since the Cold War era, the United States is guarded with its transfer of sensitive technology and know-how to India. On the flip side, Russia’s military cooperation with Pakistan last November (the first since the fall of the Soviet Union) and Putin’s plans to build a second gas pipeline to China reinforces the argument that India should work to diversify from its heavy reliance on Russian suppliers – and better – to ideologically similar partners.
Against the backdrop of increasing security threats and closer alignment among Russia, China, and Pakistan, a national interest-driven Indian foreign policy is a welcome change. India should put a real effort to forge a closer strategic tie with Washington to achieve its goal of military modernization. Meanwhile, Obama’s trip to India has prompted Pakistan to leaf back through its visitors’ book with an aggrieved eye. Islamabad’s agony is that Obama has visited India twice bypassing Pakistan. It did not escape the notice of Pakistan that five US presidents were the guests of Pakistani military rulers. Pakistan spent almost half of its 68-year history under the civilian governments while occupants of the White House only ever dropped by when generals were in power. This reinforces a view in Pakistan that even by the rough-house standards of the global geopolitics, the US policy tends to the cynical pragmatism, cultivating ties when it’s in the US interests, and only when it knows it’ll get concrete results. It’s very easy to find Americans and others who’ll make a parallel charge against Pakistan, citing Islamabad’s record of brazenly pocketing billions in US military assistance while continuing covertly to support selected Islamist militant outfits, especially in Afghanistan.
Obama’s visit to India, Pakistan’s much larger, more prosperous and more important neighbor, was always destined to grate on the Pakistani nerves. A sense of pique hangs in the foggy winter air, partly because Pakistan’s always-hostile relationship with India is going through a particularly turbulent phase. Bullets, missiles and accusations have been flying back and forth in Kashmir, the disputed territory lying in the heart of South Asia’s tensions. Amidst all these developments, positive and negative, Putin is likely to play an important card while inspecting China’s grand military parade, an event to be Beijing’s bold stroke to highlight growing military strength and send a key message to Japan and the US about China’s growing clout. Now time will say whether Modi can afford to court the US while keeping things smooth with Moscow and Beijing. Washington could still throw a wrench into the works by asking India to condemn Russia or publicly state support for international sanctions, something New Delhi can’t afford to dot. Now, the Indians will have to see what their Foreign Minister Sushama Swarj brings from Beijing-love or hate.
