Would annexation of Crimea excalate global tension?

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Ibne Siraj :
Crimea’s parliament has approved the resolution on the country’s independence, declaring the Black Sea peninsula an independent, sovereign state and appeals to join Russia as a republic, with 85 lawmakers voting in favor. The resolution was approved during an extraordinary session of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea on March 17. Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 17 night recognized Crimea as an independent state in defiance of sanctions imposed just hours earlier on senior Russian officials by the US and EU. The Russian president’s move threatened to escalate the crisis in Ukraine after the last March 16 overwhelming vote by Crimeans in a referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. It marked a further step towards full annexation of the Black Sea peninsula with Putin devising Moscow’s plans for the region. The US and the EU have urged Putin not to move to absorb Crimea into Russia, a step they say could undermine principles of respect for national sovereignty that have been a cornerstone of Europe’s postwar security architecture. Washington and Brussels on March 17 readied more serious sanctions against Russia if it does annex Crimea, or moves its army into eastern Ukraine.
However, the West led by the United States ultimately suffered yet another diplomatic battle as their towering tall talks evaporated into the air following the referendum in Crimea. May be the Ukrainians in their capital were prepared for a war on the day after the referendum’s results showed “YES” to Russia but the Crimea’s election committee said 97% voters backed a union between the largely ethnic-Russian peninsula and the huge neighboring country. In Simferopol, the mood among Russians was festive after polling stations closed at 8 pm with a concert held in the city’s center square. Thousands turned up brandishing flags and dancing to live pop music. Residents of Crimea with 60% percent Russian origin were given a choice of either joining Russia or opting for more autonomy from Ukraine under the 1992 constitution. The status quo, in which Crimea is a semi-autonomous region of Ukraine, was not an option. Russia’s pro-Kremlin parliament welcomed the referendum and pledged to facilitate Crimea joining Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who authorized sending Russian troops to Ukraine on March 1, has insisted that Russia is only protecting Russians in Ukraine and would deploy armed forces only if necessary.
Earlier, Putin told German Chancellor Angela Merkel over phone that Crimean residents were voting in accordance with international law, in particular with Article 1 of the UN Charter, stipulating right of the people to self-determination. A woman holds a Russian flag as she casts her ballot in a polling station in Sevastopol. “Of course I have voted for joining Russia, I was born in Russia,” said Raisa Dragunova, a pensioner in her 70s. “The referendum wasn’t a surprise at all. I was so happy,” she added. “I’m for Russia. To be honest, I’ve waited for this for 20 years,” said Eduard Kutalitov, 38, a Russian factory worker. “I am a native of Simferopol, and I identify with Russia.” Kutalitov said as he believed that troops were sent to maintain law and order, but he hasn’t seen any disorder from pro-Ukrainian forces. “It’s quiet here, there’s not going to be any war.” Some who opposed Crimea joining Russia did not vote because they said the referendum didn’t give them any option. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s government announces that it is abandoning an agreement that would strengthen ties with the European Union. It seeks closer cooperation with Moscow.
All developments centering Ukraine have left the West as truly funny to the global people. An expression of the will of the people is invalid, but a violent overthrow of a democratically elected government is fine as long as the thugs and other unsavory types like neo Nazis toe the line of the western elite. About 93 percent voters in the Crimean referendum have answered ‘YES’ to the autonomous republic to join Russia while only 7 percent wants the region to remain part of Ukraine, according to first exit polls. Polling stations closed in Crimea after the referendum where residents were to decide on the future status of the region. “The results of the referendum exit polls in Crimea and Sevastopol: 93 percent voted for the reunion of Crimea with Russia as a constituent unit of the Russian Federation. 7 percent voted for the restoration of the 1992 constitution of the Republic of Crimea and Crimea’s status as part of Ukraine,” the Crimean republican institute for political and social research said in a statement. The overall voter turnout in Crimea constituted over 80%, while in Sevastopol, about 85% of voters cast their ballots by 1600 GMT, two hours before the polling stations closed, according to the chair of the city’s election commission Valery Medvedev.
When Crimean people were submitting their future to Russia, Putin told Obama that the referendum in Crimea complied with the international law and the UN Charter. With some 50 percent of the ballots counted, the referendum results showed that 95 percent of Crimeans was nodding to join Russia and secede from Ukraine. Putin told Obama, “the peninsula’s population was guaranteed free expression of will and self-determination.” The two leaders have also agreed to continue seeking ways to resolve the Ukrainian crisis despite the existing contradictions. The political crisis in Ukraine erupted in November last following a step back by President Viktor Yanukovych from closer ties with Europe.
Months-long protests in the country’s capital Kiev that repeatedly turned deadly eventually led to his ouster by a vote of parliament on February 22. Crimea, along with several other regions in Ukraine, has refused to recognize as legitimate the new leadership in the country. Rather, the illegal parliament in Kiev has declared the Crimean parliament to be illegal, sounding funny actually. The parliament in Crimea was lawfully elected by the original elections long time ago, and everyone was ok with it. While the ”new” parliament in Kiev consists of those who have encouraged protesters to overthrow the legitimate, lawfully elected president of the Ukraine.
Obama’s press secretary, Jay Carney, said the White House would not recognize results of the referendum in Crimea describing Russia’s actions as “dangerous and destabilizing”. Western leaders also denounced the referendum as illegitimate and unconstitutional. “We don’t recognize Crimea referendum or outcome. We call on Russia to enter dialogue with Ukraine and resolve crisis within international law,” said British Prime Minister David Cameron. President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz said the referendum has violated the Ukrainian and the international laws and would complicate further efforts to resolve the crisis. US Secretary of State John Kerry said the US would not recognize the outcome of the vote, and the EU’s Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy both echoed that, also calling on Russia to withdraw its troops from Crimea. Zhana Nikitenko, head of the local election commission, praised the election process and brushed off all concerns about hasty preparations and the referendum’s legal status. “This vote is much better than all previous ones because we have no opposition here; nobody is making a big fuss about what is going on,” said Nikitenko, a middle-aged social worker. “I represent an Armenian who is married to a Russian; my children work in Crimea. Nobody is forcing us to vote and as you can see, there are no guns here,” said Larisa Avetisyan, 39, an Armenian and a native of Crimea.
Amid tensions between Ukraine and Russia, the vote produced what most observers saw as a foregone conclusion: Reunification with Russia. They now expect Russia to move quickly to reabsorb the region following the ballot. Many also see little prospect for long-lasting market turmoil barring a significant escalation of tensions or violence, with the US and Western powers in position to do little beyond imposing sanctions on Moscow. A vote in favor of rejoining Russia would likely be followed by a round of US-and European-led sanctions against Moscow. But that scenario is already “baked in the cake” from a market perspective. As mineral resources are concerned, both oil and gas jumped in late February and early March as tensions rose and Russian-backed forces took control of the regional parliament and swarmed Crimea. Memories of how Russia twice shut off the natural-gas exports to Ukraine in the last decade were briefly revived. The US government recently announced that it would make a “test” sale of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a move some commentators viewed as a warning to Moscow, though many industry observers dismissed the measure as a purely technical operation. If commentators were right in seeing this as a signal to Russia, then this signal will be too weak to reach the Kremlin.
(Ibne Seraj is a journalist)

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