US jobs data could be key to presidential campaign

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AFP, Washington :
Divisive rhetoric and character attacks aside, it is the state of the US economy that likely will make or break the presidential bids of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and the July employment report this week will be a key element with less than 100 days to go until the elections.
Coming on the heels of a sluggish second-quarter GDP report, which showed the US economy expanded by just 1.2 percent, better than the first quarter’s 0.8 percent but still well below the pace of the last two years, a disappointing result for jobs growth could set the narrative for the Trump campaign.
“The numbers are horrendous,” the Republican candidate said of the economy.
“1.2 percent, 1.2, we’re sinking.” Sinking may be overstating it-the first quarter of 2014 was the last time the US economy contracted-but as The Wall Street Journal reports the pace of this expansion has been by far the weakest of any since 1949.
The economy has grown at an annual rate of only 2.1 percent since the recession ended in June 2009, compared with annual growth of 4.3 percent during the economic expansion from 1982 to 1990.
And even with an unemployment rate of 4.9 percent, a Gallup poll found that 60 percent of Americans think economic conditions in this country are “getting worse.”
The US Labor Department releases the July jobs report Friday, and the consensus among economists is for nonfarm employment to increase by 185,000 payrolls, after a 287,000 surge in June. Payrolls have increased an average of 147,000 a month in the latest three-month period, which includes the dismal performance in May.
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