Mohammad Amjad Hossain :
Since the emergence as newly independent countries in the Central Asia following the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991 no political leaders from the Republic of India has attached any importance to the 5 states in the Central Asia which are endowed with natural resources, including hydrocarbon, Uranium, substantial amount of gas, oil and gold. Historically, these states in the Central Asia gave birth to many scholars and men of learning. Great scholar like Abu Al-Fath Al-Khazen who was born in Turkmenistan, became famous for his works in physics, astronomy, Mathematics and mechanics. His book Mizan Al-Hikmah (Scale of wisdom) was one of the most popular books in history of Physics and his accurate astronomical discoveries became widely known in Europe. Kyrgyzstan was home to two of the greatest thinkers of the medieval orient, Yusuf Balasagun and Muhammad Kashgar whose works had been accepted into the literacy wealth of world civilization. Similarly, Abu Ali Ibn Sino, philosopher, physician and poet was known as the Prince of Philosophers while Al-Khorezmiy is known as father of Algebra. Both of them were from Uzbekistan. Ulugh Beg, the grandson of Tamerlane, who built three majestic Madrasas in 1417, was renowned scholar and one of the greatest astronomers of his time. The remains of his observatory are preserved at the original mound, a few kilometers from Samarkand of Uzbekistan. It was reported that Madrasah built by Ulugh Beg was one of the Universities of medieval times. One of the great Muslim scholar and poet Omar Khayyam came to Samarkand to study mathematics, astronomy and philosophy.
Against the backdrop of importance of the countries in Central Asia which Russia has already staked its claim for sphere of influence in its near abroad, including the central Asian countries, apart from Pakistan’s growing influence in Central Asian republics, and India’s competitor in Asia: China’ sphere of influence, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not sphere much of his time unlike his previous predecessors, who concentrated at developing its relations with the West in post cold war era, to successfully penetrate in the Central Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has availed of the opportunity in visiting Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan from 6-8 July while he covered Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan from July 10 to 13 July. Narendra Modi also attended summit meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as an observer founded by China and Russia in 1996 where all five central Asian countries except Uzbekistan which joined in 1991. Both India and Pakistan now entered in SCO as full member on 10 July of 2015.Narendra Modi also did not miss the opportunity in attending summit of BRICS(Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in Ufa in Russia on 9 July.
During his visit to countries in Central Asia Indian Prime Minister apparently concentrated in developing trade, apart from developing relations between Indian army and armies of countries in Central Asia by providing training to counter terrorism and joint military exercises. More so, India has agreed to buy Uranium from Kazakhstan which turns out to be largest producer of Uranium in the world. Kazak’s economy is possibly largest in Central Asia but trade with Kazak accounts for almost half of India’s trade with the whole region. Uzbekistan was Indian Premier priority list to pay tribute to the memory of Lal Bahadur Shastri, Indian Prime Minister who conducted peace negotiation with President Ayub Khan to stop war with Pakistan in 1965 through courtesy of Premier Kosygin of Soviet Union. Following talks Tashkent declaration was announced on 10 January of 1966, but
Lal Bahadur Shastri expired in Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan on 11 January. His death remained shrouded in mystery. Uzbekistan is known to Indian because founder of the Mughal Empire in India was Babur who was born in Fergana Valley of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan decided to boost ties in key areas of atomic energy, defense and trade. In Turkmenistan Narendra Modi argued for an early implementation of $ 10 billion TAPI(Turkmenistan-Afghanistan – Pakistan – India) pipeline project to supply one million cubic meters per day of natural gas to India. Turkmenistan has biggest natural gas reserve in the region.
There has been tussle between China and India on the importation of gas. China has signed an agreement with Islamabad on April 20, 2015 to construct a pipeline from Pakistan’s Chinese built Gwadar port to Nawabshah where it can join Pakistan’s domestic gas distribution network while public relations work of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi for promoting of an Iran-Oman-India pipeline signals a new round of Sino-Indian rivalry. The prospect of such project has brightened following discussion with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the sideline of summit of SCO. During the visit of Indian Premier to the region for the first time will certainly boost relations with India although some columnists pointed out visit of Indian first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in the region in 1955 when all these countries were part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Similarly, Indian Premier Narendra Modi has established link with the countries in Indian Ocean region in about 30 years before undertaking trip to Central Asian region to counter the growing influence of China. Last 30 years no Indian leader care to maintain relations with Indian Ocean region.
First and foremost of his policy is to contain growing influence of China in Asia and Indian Ocean area in particular. His dramatic visits to Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka in Indian Ocean region in March 2015 is the reflection of priority in his foreign policy to curb influence of China in the region which has been reflected in his comments both in Seychelles and Mauritius that” India attaches paramount importance to strengthening relations in the region which is vitally important from Indian security perspective and India would provide security in the region”. This was the visit of Indian Premier in 33 years. Seychelle is being used as a refueling port for China’s navy. India will provide petrol ship, Surveillance radar and ocean mapping instrument to Seychelle to protect its exclusive economic zone. India provided aircraft and launched radar project.
In Mauritius, Narendra Modi was a guest of honor on the national day of Mauritius on 12 March, a day Modi described special to all Indians because Mahatma Gandhi had begun his Dandi (Salt Satyagraha) March from Ahmedabad on this day of 1930.Here Indian Premier offered $ 500 million concessional line of credit for key infrastructure projects including developing ocean economy. Mauritius is a multiracial country but Hinduism is dominating religion. Both the governments agreed to upgrade sea and air links on the remote Agalega island. Visiting Indian Ocean region is a part of Narendra Modi’s foreign policy of outreach of Indian Ocean.
Narendra Modi visited Sri Lanka in 28 years as Indian premier. This seems to be ridiculous from Indian point of view to visit a close door neighbor in 28 years. Apart from historical link a large number of Tamil community are citizen of Sri Lanka. The deep-sea port with Chinese fund was built in Hambantota on south coast of Sri Lanka which was opened by President Mahinda Rajapaksa on 18 November of 2014.That caused growing concern for India.In the election that took place in January of 2015 President Mahinda Rajapaksa was defeated with the blessing reportedly from Indian government. In Sri Lanka, Narendra Modi offered $380 million to Sri Lanka railway sector. He inaugurated the reconstruction Northern provincial railway lines and paid a visit to war torn Jaffna which might struck a chord with Sri Lanka’s Tamil community where he stressed the need to go beyond the Thirteenth Amendment of 1987 Constitution in term of political empowerment of the Tamil in United Sri Lanka. India and Sri Lanka also signed four other agreements. While addressing members of the Parliament Indian Premier called for greater security cooperation with Sri Lanka which has become necessity for regional prosperity. Sri Lanka has become focus of both leading nations of Far East: China and Japan and leading nation of South Asia: India in maritime security because Sri Lanka in fact plays as Indian Ocean pivot.
The importance attached by Indian Premier to Indian Ocean region is the fact that India’s old rival: China has increasingly focused priority in the region. China has built highways, power plants and sea ports in the region. China’s ambitious scheme of $ 40 billion modern silk road project which is aimed at connecting China with communication system in Indian Ocean region, is another concern of Indian premier. I personally feel Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on the correct path in improving bilateral relations with countries of Indian Ocean region in particular, which is the backyard of India, to counter growing Chinese influence. Between these visits Narendra Modi paid a visit to Xian, capital of Shaanxi province of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Beijing, Shanghai from 14-16 May,2015 to establish rapport with China and dissolve border dispute amicably which stands as hurdle in developing friendly mutual relations. During his visit to China as many as 24 agreements were signed worth over $ 10 billion dollars while India has joined China’s pet project of new development Bank whose headquarter is located at Beijing and South Africa will have a regional office in Johannesburg to counter the influence of the World Bank.
His visit to Bangladesh, another close door neighbor, from 6-7 June following constitutional amendment of Land boundary agreement of Bangladesh-India of 1974 in 41 years, is reflection of China factor worked to expedite resolving Land boundary agreement of 1974 between Bangladesh and India. Here too China has made lot of investment, particularly in defense and infrastructure sectors. Bangladesh has caved in to the pressure of India in shelving the much-hyped Sonadia deep Sea multi-billion project to China. His visit to Nepal two times is seen from the perspective of driving Nepal from the influence of China.
Indian Rockstar Prime Minister practically has made an attempt to engage countries in Indian Ocean region plus South Asian countries as well with a view to deterring Chinese growing influence in these regions in particular and on the other hand, India premier has availed of his pro-China business acumen as Chief Minister of Gujarat State of India to keep Chinese leaders in good humor to resolve long standing border dispute, the issue of Tibet because large number of refugees from Tibet, Including religious leader of Tibet Dalai Lama are rehabilitated in India, sharing of waters from Brahmaputra river and at the same time inviting investment from China for developing infrastructures of India. Indian Premier’s rendezvous to Indian Ocean region plus countries in South and Central Asia would likely bear fruit in cementing relations in these two regions.
(Mohammad Amjad Hossain, retired diplomat from Bangladesh and former President of Nova Chapter of Toastmasters International Club of America, writes from Virginia, US)
