UNB, Dhaka :
Narendra Modi’s fiery and often provocative rhetoric on the campaign trail, regarding alleged illegal immigration from Bangladesh, is likely to give way to a more pragmatic policy approach now that he is in office, reports IHS Jane’s Intelligence Weekly.
The newly elected Indian PM’s hand in this regard will be forced by continued competition with China over influence in the region, according to the respected UK-based magazine.
However, sharing of the Teesta river waters and land disputes between Bangladesh and India are likely to remain unresolved.
In a briefing dated May 25, 2014, IHS recognises that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in the Indian election means that the ruling Awami League in Bangladesh has lost a strong government ally in India’s Congress party.
However, it states that despite pre-election pledges for strong action against illegal Bangladeshi immigration and criticism of the ‘special relationship’ between Congress and the Awami League,
the BJP is likely to maintain strong relations with Bangladesh in government. In return, the Bangladesh government is likely to continue favouring Indian business domestically, particularly in infrastructure and energy, and assisting in counter-terrorism efforts.
While campaigning in states bordering Bangladesh for the elections that handed him and his party a huge mandate in the Indian Lok Sabha, Modi’s speeches even took on a communal dimension.
Essentially, he promised differential treatment for alleged illegal immigrants from Bangladesh into India, according to their religious denomination – describing Muslims as ‘infiltrators’, while Hindu migrants were ‘refugees’, apparently fleeing persecution in their home country.
Ironically, the IHS briefing asserts attacks on assets linked to Hindus are likely to increase in Bangladesh if the BJP government does push against illegal migration from Bangladesh.
According to an IHS source in Dhaka, several senior BJP figures have interpreted the relationship between the AL and Congress as the ‘personalisation of foreign policy’. While this will probably result in less forceful diplomacy, IHS assesses there are several factors that will continue to drive BJP support for the AL.
It says the BJP will be aware of the opposition BNP’s anti-India stance and how relations between the two countries have cooled under previous BNP governments. It will ultimately be in India’s interest, whether under Congress or BJP, to continue diplomatic support for the AL.
And yet, on issues of national importance to Bangladesh, there is likely to be no progress. Indeed, the report states that the agreement chalked out and waiting to be signed on Teesta, is also likely to be reviewed by the BJP government because of fears that it may lead to water shortages in India.
All in all, the report seems to indicate that while the BJP won’t turn its back to the AL completely, and certainly not veer towards supporting the BNP here, there will be a subtle downgrade in ties between Dhaka and Delhi.
