Md. Zillur Rahaman :
Four years after the eruption of Rohingya crisis, there has been no visible progress in repatriation and Bangladesh is not getting a chance to hold bilateral talks on the issue as there is almost a civil war in Myanmar. The generals are struggling to cope with the internal political conflicts in the country, so it goes without saying that they are not interested in discussing the Rohingya issue to keep their sphere of power intact. In addition, the Chinese-mediated tripartite talks have stalled and due to the military rule and the new refugee problem in Afghanistan, the crisis is not a priority for the international community at this moment. As a result, there is serious uncertainty about Rohingya repatriation.
Not that there is no country behind the military junta of Mayanmar. This government has the tacit support of two big neighbors and two of Asia’s most powerful powers, India and China. Myanmar is very important to China in geopolitical considerations. Especially since the launch of China’s new global geo-strategic plan ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ in 2013, the Rakhine (Arakan) region of the Bay of Bengal in Myanmar has become one of the world’s strategic lands. Large investments and geopolitical interests of China and India are the main obstacles to resolving the Rohingya issue and are prolonging it and pushing it towards an uncertain future.
First, China has huge investments in Myanmar. According to a report released by the country, the amount is $ 18 billion, which is more than double the total investment of all western countries. However, the amount of China’s total investment in Myanmar is very secret for strategic reasons. In the troubled Rakhine city of Sittwe alone, the Shaye gas field gas pipeline (from Shaye to Kunming in China’s Gonjeh province) has invested US$ 2.50 billion in the construction and safety of the pipeline (cantonment and paramilitary camps). Myanmar’s army chief himself is in overall charge! According to various media reports, China has planned to invest US$ 18 billion in Rakhine alone.
It is no secret to the world that China has been the sole seller of almost all types of weapons to Myanmar’s military for four decades of sanctions. In other words, Chinese-made weapons are the main force in Myanmar’s defense sector and it controls 90 percent of the country’s military market. China, meanwhile, has been accused of providing financial and arms support to freedom fighters in several states and territories, including the Kachin, Sun and Kokang regions of Myanmar, which borders Myanmar. China has resorted to this two-pronged strategy to keep Myanmar in its hands. Therefore, just as it is not possible for Myanmar to sideline China for its own security, also China has always been in the shadow of its economic and political interests.
On the other hand, India also has land border connections with Myanmar. Reducing India’s influence in Myanmar and encircling India strategically is one of China’s military policies and strategies to keep Myanmar in its hands at any cost. India, a close friend of Bangladesh, has also sided with Myanmar’s genocide because of its geopolitical interests. In fact, although Bangladesh has been able to suppress the freedom movement of India, providing corridor facilities, transit, transshipment, etc., Indian needs special cooperation from Myanmar to suppress the insurgency in Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram border with Myanmar. If they stand by Bangladesh without supporting Myanmar on the Rohingya issue, it will be difficult to suppress the movement of these three states.
The Siliguri Corridor, known as the ‘Chicken Neck’, is the only land route for transporting goods, sending military equipment and road communication to the ‘Seven Sisters’ in northeastern India. The 18-kilometer-long corridor is strategically important to India, as China will desperately try to seize or close the corridor in the event of a Sino-Indian war. In that case, even if India cannot use the transit of goods transported through Bangladesh, it is not uncommon for the Seven Sisters to lose control. So, as an alternative, India has planned to use the Kaladan River through Myanmar to set up a long-distance ‘Multimode Aial’ or multidimensional communication project from Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine, through Mizoram in northeastern India, called the Kaladan Multimoda Transport Project. India has already released $ 500 million for the project, which is aimed at tackling the threat of a united India and sovereignty. The project will enable the delivery of various goods from Kolkata’s Haldia port directly to the Seven Sisters of India through the Sittwe port.
Meanwhile, Indian policymakers also feel that China is encircling India. Therefore, for security and military strategic reasons, India has consumed ginger water to reduce China’s influence in Myanmar. As part of this effort, work has already begun to establish India-Myanmar-Thailand connectivity under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Act East Project’.
The Myanmar government and army cannot in any way avoid and deny the responsibility for the Rohingya genocide. The government, the military and the religious leadership are in line in the country regarding the Rohingya. For this reason, the Myanmar government has not been sincere in repatriating Rohingya from the beginning till now. The international community should try to resolve the Rohingya crisis effectively by putting pressure on the Myanmar government, as well as the UN International Court of Justice. It should be noted, however, that unless China and India exert effective pressure on Myanmar, the Rohingya problem will not be easily resolved.
(Zillur Rahaman is a banker and
freelance columnist).
