Jehangir Hussain :
Despite Bangladesh’s GDP growth, average monthly earnings of 77 per cent households fell in the country in 2020 under the impact of Covid-19 pandemic and at least one member in 34 per cent families lost job or earning, shows a joint survey done by BRAC, UN Women Bangladesh and New York University’s Centre on International Cooperation.
The research was done from December 10 to December 25, 2020.People working for the informal sectors were the worst hit.The researchers found that 25 per cent of returnee migrant workers found it hard to repay the money they had borrowed for migration, ranging from Tk 76,000 to Tk seven lakh. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted almost all aspects of lives and livelihoods in Bangladesh The study drew attention specifically to the impact of the Covid-19 on internal and international migration, including returnee migrants who were forced to return to their places of origin due to various circumstances during the pandemic.
BRAC, UN WOMEN and NYU-CIC conducted the research to look into the changes in demographic, economic, and social environments in secondary towns, peri-urban (upazila) and rural areas brought on by the reverse migrations during the COVID-19 pandemic. For this research, 21out of 64 districts in all the divisions were selected through a multistage systematic random sampling as study locations, with a focus on migration-prone districts.
Both qualitative and quantitative approaches were applied. A survey using a semi-structured questionnaire was carried out for primary data collection from households in the selected villages and towns during 10-25 December 2020. The survey was conducted with 6,370 households, 60 per cent in rural areas and 40 per cen5t in urban and peri-urban areas. Roughly 26.5 per cent of the surveyed households included at least one migrant worker, internal or international, and 21.9 per cent of households were led by women. Among the migrant households, 60 per cent had returnee migrants during the pandemic.
The first set of findings from the survey -focused on demographic changes -suggests that population growth in 2021 is likely to exceed the expected rate. The average family size was found to be 4.7, which is higher than the pre-pandemic national average of 4.06.
The household survey identified 604 pregnant women among the surveyed households, indicating an expected crude birth rate of 20.2 per 1000 people which is higher than the crude birth rate of 18.2 in 2018.Returnee migrant households have a higher expected crude birth rate of 30.6) than households without returnee migrants of 16.4.
An alarmingly high incidence of child marriages occurred in the surveyed households during this pandemic which has grave implications for maternal and child health and is also likely to result in higher population growth. And in 77 per cent of the marriages that took place in these households the brides were under 18, which was 26 per cent higher than the national rate of child marriage of 51 per cent in 2018.
Child marriages were found to be more prevalent in rural areas, 81 per cent compared to 70 per cent in urban areas. More child marriages took place in households headed by women compared to the families led by males. Both primary and secondary data suggest that the death rate decreased in 2020.
In the surveyed households, 152 persons died during the survey reference period, indicating a death rate of 5.1 per 1,000 people. The pre-pandemic death rate in Bangladesh was 5.5 per 1,000 in 2018, indicating a slightly lower death rate in 2020, which in turn may contribute to a higher population growth rate.
Due to the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic many people, particularly with low earnings and working for the informal sectors lost jobs and earning opportunities. About 34 per cent of the households surveyed had at least one member who lost jobs or earning. For 77 per cent of the households surveyed average monthly decreased during the pandemic. For the households with migrants earnings fell more than the households without migrants.
The affected families spent their savings and borrowed to meet their daily expenses. The average monthly savings of households decreased by 62 per cent on average, and household debt increased by 31 per cent while the average monthly expenditure fell by only 8.6 per cent.
Although there was not a significant difference in the fall of income and savings between urban and rural households, the household debt increased for 47 per cent urban households compared to 22 per cent rural households. At least 10 per cent urban households spent less compared to 7 per cent rural ones.The surveyed households reported a 58 decrease in monthly remittances received on an average during the pandemic.
Government and non-government bodies and individuals made efforts to provide sustenance support to those-in-need during the pandemic. However, only 19 per cent of the households surveyed said that they had received any assistance from government or non-government sources. And 24 per cent of the urban households received more support compared to 15 per cent rural households, 24 per cent of the household headed by females received support compared to 17 per cent household led by males.
The returnee migrants are facing grim economic prospects and 77 per cent of the respondents in this category said that job opportunities for them were scarce. Many of these returnee migrants said that they withdrawing from savings or using rent from assets to meet their expenses. And 25 per cent of the returnee migrant households said that they didn’t know how they would repay their outstanding migration loans, varying between Tk76,000 to Tk seven lakh. The study found that 13.35 per cent of returnees, both external and internal, were above 40 years of age, and 4.56 were above 50, with less prospect for remigration.
The female returnee migrants, mostly internal migrants, have been subjected to increased social burden during the pandemic, their main problems were getting income-generating work, moving freely, and increased burden of household chores and problems in child-rearing and ensuring their education.
The returnee migrants are facing economic and social adversities. Reintegration of these returnee migrants should be a policy priority in the pandemic recovery plan. Financial and business support is needed for their economic reintegration and to familiarise themselves with the local market, supply chain, and business environment. Skill development training should be offered to those who intend to make a change of career. Government agencies, the private sector and NGOs need to play the necessary roles in reintegration plan.
Internal returnee migrants, on the other hand, will need support to get back to work as soon as possible, maintaining the necessary health safety and hygiene rules. The return of women workers to their pre-pandemic workplaces should also be facilitated and encouraged by government initiatives. Additional resources must be allocated in these sectors where necessary to accommodate the increased need for services caused by the potential increase in number of students, old aged people, newborn babies, and people with psychological stresses at the local level.
The findings were released at a virtual international dialogue, moderated by Leah Zamore, head of humanitarian crises programme, the Centre on International Cooperation, New York University.
Leah Zamore, humanitarian crises programme lead at the Center on International Cooperation of New York University moderated the dialogue.
KAM Morshed, senior director of BRAC, presented the research findings with Shoko Ishikawa, country representative, UN Women Bangladesh, Dr Daniel Naujoks, interim director, International Organization and UN Studies Specialization at Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, and Dr Adam Schwartz, director of health for BRAC USA, were the panelists in the discussions.
(Mr.Hussain is a journalist. Email: [email protected])
