Staff Reporter :
More than five million people in the country will again fall below the poverty line due to the adverse impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food, fuel and fertilizer prices, which have been rising rapidly in the world market since the beginning of the war.
The impact of price hikes of essential commodities on economic stability, food security and poverty rates in developing countries like Bangladesh has already become a major concern, the study said.
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has published a research report titled ‘Bangladesh: Impact of the Ukraine and Global Crisis on Poverty and Food Security’ recently.
The report based on the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model also found that the overall impact of war will reduce Bangladesh’s real GDP by 0.3 per cent.
More than five million people in the country will again fall below the poverty line due to the impact of the war, the report said.
In that case, the overall poverty rate is going to increase by 3.3 per cent more, it said.
Rural poverty is going to increase by 3.8 percentage points as the price of food, fuel and fertilizers increases. In urban areas this rate is 2 per cent.
According to the observation of the organization, Bangladesh fulfills a large part of the demand of daily necessities like corn, wheat and edible oil through imports. The prices and import costs of these products have increased. Again, the supply of fertilizer used in the
cropland for the production of agricultural products at the local level has also been interrupted, and the price has increased, it said.
The inclusion of new poor populations in the country will depend on the sustainability of the war and the continuation of current growth trends, it said.
Currently the growth in the country is 7.25 per cent and it is projected to be 7.5 percent next year. If growth continues, there is no reason for new poor.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur said that the impact of the ongoing war is global and the impact varies from country to country. In the case of Bangladesh, in addition to the impact of external influences, the good governance of internal market management has become very important.
Market surveillance at the local level is quite weak. Due to this, there is increased concern about issues like inflation, income, employment and poverty, he said.
Around 21 lakh people have become new poor in the country in last five months after the beginning of the war, according to a study of Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD).
Market management has become an important issue now as the food market has become unstable. The global factor is not only the reason behind the new poor but the internal shock management is very much important to deal with the situation, Mansur said.
It is important that the market management needs to be addressed efficiently in line with the public interest, he added.
