Md Khaled Bin Chowdhury :
There was less than 30 percent turnout in the recently held two city corporation elections of Dhaka. The poor turnout speaks about the apathy that has developed among voters regarding the electoral process. Voters’ presence was thin at most of the polling centers where over 54 lakh voters were supposed to elect the city’s guardians. This poor turnout indicates people’s diminishing confidence in the country’s electoral system. Many people were deprived of their voting rights in some of the previous elections too. The Election Commission is failing to create enthusiasm among the voters to go to polling centers.
It is obviously the outcome of the irregularities in previous elections. This time too voters did not have confidence that they would be able to cast their votes without any fear. The voter turnout should have been higher this time. But the poor presence of voters indicates that the Election Commission has failed to uphold the trust of the voters. To the contrary, it shows the lame excuse that the voters in Dhaka city left Dhaka for their village home to enjoy the three day election vacation. Actually the voters of Bangladesh have lost all interest in electioneering during the last few years. This time the supporters of the opposition candidates were active in canvassing for their candidates. It was an opportunity for the Election Commission as well as the government to make the election acceptable to all. But, as before all assurances from the law-enforcing agencies were like false hopes to the voters.
Voter turnout is sometimes low in many developed countries such as, US and UK. Voter turnout in the United States is incredibly low compared to other modern democracies. In the 2012 presidential election, 53.6 percent of the voting-age population turned out to vote. This puts the United States behind countries such as Turkey (84.3 percent turnout in 2015) and Belgium (87.2 percent in 2014), where voting is compulsory. But the U.S. also lags behind other countries with voluntary voting, such as Sweden (82.6 percent turnout in 2014), France (71.6 percent in 2012) and many others. Normally people in advanced countries skip voting for other reasons, not for no-confidence in voting process only. These may include inclement weather, dislike of candidates nominated by political parties. Some people also feel it’s pointless to vote as they are just one out of tens of thousands of voters in their constituency.
Researches are conducted to find out the reasons for people’s abstinence from voting in those countries after election. But we do not need any research to investigate the low turnout in our recent elections. Any novice and ordinary person might be well aware about the reasons for this low voter turnout and voting apathy in recent times in Bangladesh. The political parties are liable for this. In the past the political parties going to leave power after their tenure had to bow to the demands of the opposition parties and adhere to the international pressure to ensure free and credible elections. That is why, the provision for caretaker government was in practice through constitutional arrangement. In spite of that, every time the incumbent parties tried to manipulate the next election to pave the way for their return next time. The spirit of caretaker government was thus spoilt.
Later on this system was legally annulled by dint of majority of the incumbent party in parliament through the 15th Amendment of the constitution. So general elections are now being held under a party government. In a country like ours where democracy has not become institutionalized and does not stand on a solid footing, any election under party government is not supposed to be free and credible. Our political culture is not still refined and civilized so as to let any election to be held without any bias and influence under a political government. In countries like ours, the process of election manipulation starts much earlier before the election time. There are researches about how election is rigged in countries staying at the bottom of the list of malfunctioning Democracies.
In their highly acclaimed book How to Rig an Election (Yale University Press, 2018), Nic Cheeseman of the University of Birmingham and Brian Klaas of the London School of Economics have shown that 75 per cent of elections are won by governments in power through authoritarian adaptation and systemic manipulations. The book made a fascinating analysis of the pseudo-democratic methods employed by despots around the globe to retain power. The authors in this book argue that the increase in voting has not led to a corresponding rise in embracing democratic norms.
Rather, voter intimidation, strategic misinformation, and ballot-rigging are common in many countries that describe themselves as democratic. They also say, “The ‘best’ election rigging tactics are subtle, legal, and effective; nobody knows you’re doing them; if you are caught, it’s technically within the confines of the law. The authors also point out that ‘Only amateurs steal elections on Election Day.’ In reality, the savviest ‘experts’ at rigging elections start the manipulation process well before the voting begins.
A similar study by Mubashar Hasan and Arild Engelsen Ruud narrates that election in many fragile democracies are rigged through other vicious activities. Most of the manipulations are usually orchestrated during the weeks and months before the election, including the arrest of opposition activists on criminal charges and the refusal to accept nominations on the ground of loan defaults. These decisions are within the bounds of the law, but the law is clearly applied with a political bias. In the end, the election result is not a surprise.
In tandem with the domestic political scenario, the external factors that impact the holding of credible elections have lost their ground. In Bangladesh the pressure for credible election was once created from external forces. These forces are the geopolitical power dynamics which have recently taken a different direction. Foreign pressure for democracy and a fair vote has diminished to such an extent that internal political forces now cannot find external allies. The influence of the democratic West on us has become weak and the global contest between the US and China has also taken attention away from the state of democracy in Bangladesh. To the key external partners of Bangladesh, stability is at this moment more important than a flawed election because, they apprehend, an unstable Bangladesh would be a breeding ground of terrorism in the region.
For the external forces, Bangladesh is an important ally in the fight against terrorism. To Bangladesh’ new set of external partners, stability, not democracy is a priority. To them an unstable Bangladesh would have multiple implications for regional and global politics. Realizing this changed geo-political and strategic scenario, the Awami League government has made the most of its bargaining power with the external stakeholders of Bangladesh. Moreover, economic interest has now become more important than a flawed election to all external forces. Once, the Western powers individually and through their importance in the UN agencies and the World Bank used to play a pivotal role in Bangladesh, funding both of our development budget and a huge number of non-governmental organizations. This situation has recently changed and the dependence on these agents for development fund is now virtually low.
It’s a fact that Bangladesh cannot ignore the geopolitical reality centering Bangladesh. At the same time, it is also not easy to overhaul all electoral irregularities from Bangladeshi politics overnight. It is also unrealistic to think that the caretaker system will again be established. But what can be done is to overhaul the flawed electoral system. The party in position should realize that people’s apathy to voting is gradually leading to the de-politicization of the statecraft. This practice will make the incumbent party both politically and morally weak and dependent on extra- constitutional forces devoid of the spirit of sacrifice for the country and humanitarian values.
The incumbent party may also be split into several factions in the absence of a strong leadership and politics devoid of morality and ideology. The opposition also needs to play its constructive role in re-establishing the glorious past of free and credible election. The main opposition cannot also decry its responsibilities for the present scenario. They should reflect on their previous roles and responsibilities and work judiciously to re-establish the culture of fair and credible election. Most importantly, the Election Commission is to play the pivotal role in ensuring credible election at any tier of the state.
(Md Khaled Bin Chowdhury, teacher of a private University, Chattogram; e-mail [email protected]).
