Dr Matiur Rahman :
The World Economic Forum has recently published ‘The Global Risks Report 2022’. This year it examines risks in five categories such as economic, environmental, geopolitical, social and technological. The report’s key findings show that social and environmental risks have been the worst since the Covid -19 pandemic began, with “social cohesion erosion” and “livelihood crises” topping the list. Other risks identified as being significantly worse are “debt crisis”, “cyber security failure”, “digital inequality” and “backlash against science”.
Among survey respondents, only 11 per cent of them thought the world would be marked by an accelerated world recovery towards 2024, while 89 per cent considered the short-term outlook to be volatile, broken or increasingly catastrophic. Absolutely 84 per cent of respondents expressed negative feelings about the future meaning they were “anxious” or “worried”. Extensive pessimism can create a cycle of disillusionment that makes galvanizing action even more challenging.
“Loss of social cohesion”, “livelihood crisis” and “deterioration of mental health” are three of the five risks that will be seen as the most worrisome threats to the world in the next two years. These social spots challenge national policy-making, limit political capital, focus on leaders, and require public support to strengthen international cooperation on global challenges.
The health of the planet, however, remains a constant concern. Environmental risks – in particular, “extreme weather” and “climate action failures” – appear to be the top risks in the short, medium and long term perspectives. In the medium term, economic risks such as the “debt crisis” and the “wealth bubble burst” also emerge when governments struggle to balance fiscal priorities. On the long-term horizon, geopolitical and technological risks are also a concern – including “geopolitical conflicts”, “geopolitical resource competition” and “cyber security failures”.
Respondents point out that environmental hazards are most likely to affect humans and the planet, followed by social challenges. The “debt crisis” and the “collision of the geopolitics” are in the top 10 risks in terms of intensity over the next 10 years.
Respondents’ views on 15 different governance areas signal broad disappointment with the effectiveness of international risk mitigation efforts. “Trade facilitation”, “international crime” and “weapons of mass destruction” were rated as the areas with the most effective efforts, but only by 12.5 per cent of respondents in the best case. By contrast, “artificial intelligence”, “space exploitation”, “cross-border cyber-attacks and misinformation” and “migration and refugees” were seen by most respondents as the areas where international mitigation has not started.
The most serious challenge persisting from the pandemic is economic stagnation. The macroeconomic outlook remains weak, with the global economy expected to be 2.3 per cent smaller by 2024 than it would have been without the pandemic. Commodity prices, inflation, and debt are rising in both the developed and developing worlds. The pandemic and its economic consequences continue to stifle countries’ ability to control the virus and facilitate a sustainable recovery. Along with labour market imbalances, protectionist policies and widening disparities in education and skills, the economic fallout from the pandemic risks splitting the world into divergent trajectories.
Governments, businesses and societies are facing increasing pressure to transform into a net-zero economy. An aggressive and rapid transition will alleviate the long-term environmental consequences but may have serious short-term effects, such as trying to lay off millions of carbon-intensive industry workers or starting social and geopolitical tensions. Conversely, a slower but more orderly transformation will prolong environmental degradation, structural fragility, and global inequality. Divergent trajectories across countries and sectors are creating more barriers to collaboration and cooperation in both scenarios.
The growing reliance on digital systems, intensified by the Covid-19 response, has fundamentally changed societies. At the same time, cyber security threats are growing and exceeding society’s ability to effectively counter or respond to them. Critical infrastructure, misinformation, fraud and attacks on digital security will affect public confidence in digital systems and increase costs for all stakeholders. As the attacks become more serious and more widespread, tensions between the governments affected by cybercrime and the governments involved in their commissions will already escalate, as cyber security becomes another nail in the coffin for differences rather than cooperation between nations.
Increasing insecurity in the forms of economic hardship, worsening impacts of climate change and political persecution will force millions to leave their homes in search of a better future. Yet in many countries, lingering effects of the pandemic, increased economic protectionism and new labour market dynamics are resulting in higher barriers to entry for migrants who might seek opportunity or refuge.
Although humans have been exploring outer space for decades, private and public activity has increased in recent years, both creating new opportunities and also signalling that space is an emerging risk area. The most immediate consequence of increasing space activity is a high risk of collisions between infrastructure and space objects near the Earth, which could affect the orbits of Earth’s core systems, damage valuable space equipment, or create international tensions in a few regions. The increasing militarization of space also poses a risk of increasing geopolitical tensions, especially as space forces fail to co-operate under new rules to govern the state.
But amid all the bleak predictions, there’s still reason to hope for more positive outcomes, with the Global Risks Report 2022 including lessons in resilience from the Covid-19 pandemic, advice for cooperation in space, greater cyber resilience and a more sequenced climate transition.
(The writer is a researcher and
development worker).
