Dr. Md. Shairul Mashreque :
Contemporary global warning stemming from global warming and rising seas is a veritable reflection of experts’ concerns calling attention of the policy level political and official high-ups. Fast changing rainfall pattern showing decreasing trend in monsoon and increasing trend during post monsoon period is a danger sign. Unexpected heavy rainfall as a mark of capricious play of nature threatens to lead to increasing runoffs causing devastation of flood.
There has been increasing debate over global warming. Poor regions, particularly Asia and Africa, are vulnerable to ‘the projected effects of global warming despite the fact that their emissions have been small compared to the developed world. The exemption of developing countries from Kyoto Protocol restrictions has been used to justify non-ratification by the US and a previous Australian Government. Australia has since ratified the Kyoto protocol. Another point of contention is the degree to which emerging countries such as India and China should be expected to constrain their emission.’ According to 2007-2008 Gallup Polls survey ‘over a third of the world’s population was unaware of global warming, developing countries less aware than developed and Africa the least aware. Awareness does not equate to belief that global warming is a result of human activities.’ Organized environmental group and policy communities stressed the need for changes in the current climate and with calculated risks. At times they advocated ‘promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.’ Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or called for policies to reduce global warming. A host of global warming skeptics in the political community debated ‘all or some of the global warming scientific consensus, questioning whether global warming is actually occurring, whether human activity has contributed significantly to the warming, and on the magnitude of the threat posed by global warming.
According to the latest UN Global Warming report underlining facts and predictions ‘the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change delivered a huge blow to global warming skeptics. Leading climate scientists are now 90 percent sure that human activity is heating up the planet. They present various scenarios that show where global warming could take us by the end of the century. The choice is ours’.
The concerns of the government of the small island states deserve mention. Maldives, for illustration, is a small island state vulnerable to changes in sea level. Due to climate change there are possibilities of being badly damaged by cyclone, floods, tidal surge, and tsunami. The Maldives and Bangladesh are among the SAARC countries with clean air having much less incidence of emission of greenhouse gas. Despite this reality these two countries are going to be the worst victims of global warming and ‘consequential sea-level rise’. Scientists apprehended Maldives would go under sea water and one third of Bangladesh would go under sea water.
The global environment is changing due largely to ‘the rapid sea-level rise occurring in all climate models whether they depict low, medium or high rates of greenhouse-gas emissions. In a medium greenhouse-gas emission scenario, the coastal areas would see an additional rise of about 8.3 inches above the mean sea level rise that is expected around the globe because of human-induced climate change’ ‘Thermal expansion and the melting of land ice, such as the Greenland ice sheet, are expected to cause the global sea-level rise. The scientists projected the global sea-level rise of 10.2 inches based on thermal expansion alone’
The scientists express grave concern over coastal belts. This is because of the fact that ‘about half of the world population live in coastal belts. Of course there is a large variation among countries. Changes in climate will affect coastal systems through sea level rise and increase in storm-surge hazards and possible changes in the frequency of extreme antecedents. The people in developing countries are four times more likely to die in natural disasters than people in developed countries. An increase in the global temperature is likely to potentially result in a sea level rise as much as one meter that may cause inundation of costal areas and high frequency of submersion of vast area under water. The consequences are being faced by the people in different parts of the world regarding health hazards, natural calamities, draught, acid rain, desertification, sea level rise and so many greenhouse effects
Cop 21 was held in Paris, most beautiful and green friendly city of Europe . It continued from 30 November to 12 December 2015. “The conference negotiated Paris agreement , a sort of climate chorus with concerted views and promise of united action . A number of meetings took place in preparation for COP21, including the Bonn Climate Change Conference, 19 to 23 October 2015, that ‘ produced a draft agreement’
Paris conference is also termed global agreement on the reduction of the danger of global warming. The text of the global agreement. Paris concert in other others represented a consensus of the representatives of the 196 parties attending it. The agreement was supposed to become ‘legally binding if joined by at least 55 countries which together represent at least 55 percent of global greenhouse emissions. Such parties will need to sign the agreement in New York between 22 April 2016 and 21 April 2017, and also adopt it within their own legal systems (through ratification acceptance, approval, or accession).’
Think tanks such as the World Pensions Council(WPC) expressed the view that the keys to success lie in convincing U.S. and Chinese policy makers: “as long as policy makers in Washington and Beijing didn’t put all their political capital behind the adoption of ambitious carbon-emission capping targets, the laudable efforts of other G20 governments often remained in the realm of pious wishes.
According to reports on the Paris confertence:
According to the organizing committee at the outset of the talks, the expected key result was an agreement to set a goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees celsias(°C) compared to pre-industrial levels. The agreement calls for zero net anthropogenic green house emissions to be reached during the second half of the 21st century. In the adopted version of the Paris Agreement, the parties will also “pursue efforts to” limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. The 1.5 °C goal will require zero emissions sometime between 2030 and 2050, according to some scientists.
‘The agreement establishes a “global stocktake” which revisits the national goals to “update and enhance” them every 5 years beginning 2023. EU suggested Intended Nationally Determined Contributions( INDC) ‘ a commitment to a 40 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990’
Some main points about the COP21 in and outside ther confrence table may be reproduced below
Institutional investors’ contribution to limiting fossil fuels
As is usual before such major conferences, major NGOs and groups of governments have drafted and published a wide variety of declarations they intend to seek a consensus on, at the Paris conference itself
Women’s Earth and Climate Action Network seeking “powerful submissions by worldwide women” sharing “stories, struggles, solutions and action plans … [a] women’s climate justice mobilization
Countries of the Mediterranean Sea. Dam Bridge, Strait of Gibraltar, S.A. (PPEGSA). The first draft PresaPuente adapting to climate change is designed to protect the Mediterranean from the imminent rising waters caused by the polar thaw. More than 24 countries, over 500 million people, more than 15,000 islands and thousands of kilometres of coast which can be saved from flooding
Solar alliance: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced at the 2015 G-20 Summit that he, along with French President François Hollande, intends to propose creating an alliance of solar-rich countries similar to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Ahead of the climate summit, the two leaders sent written invitations to over 100 countries to join the coalition proposed to be called the International Agency for Solar Policy and Application (InSPA)
A vast range of other activities in preparation to influence the major decisions at the conference.
In fact COP 21 was a conference with a difference. The participants were determined any way to fight against any dangers coming on the way responding to street demonstrations. Around the world, 600,000 people from different citizen bodies participating in demonstrations were in favour of a strong agreement. Paris authority imposed a ban on public gatherings because of recent militant attacks killing. Despite it allowed ‘thousands to demonstrate on 12 December against what they felt was a too weak treaty. There were also illegal demonstrations in Paris, including a violent clash between police and pro-communist protesters on 29 November’. We now have a tip toe expectation that COP-21 will produce result. The whole global community is expected to fight against global warming as one.
(Dr. Md. Shairul Mashreque is Professor of Public Administration, Chittagong University)
