The comparison is quite aesthetic. However, the reality behind is extremely tragic and painful, involving an uncertainty in the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people. Yes, I am talking about a possible second wave of the Corona pandemic. Think of waves rising in the sea ¾ small waves, big waves. The water swells, the tide rises. The water goes down again as the tide recedes. Pandemic attacks also may come in waves. About a hundred year back, Spanish flu attacked the world in three waves, where the second wave killed more people than the first one. Is a second wave coming in the case of the Corona epidemic, too?
The pandemic put its terrible claw over a large part of Asia, Europe and America since it began its journey from Wuhan, China, last December, devastating people’s lives all around. Many countries faced such a humiliating situation that they have been forced to look to the sky as the last resort. Many of them, however, have been able later to manage the situation apparently. Even some countries like New Zealand have at one stage declared themselves 100% Corona free. In addition, China, South Korea, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, Italy and many other countries have been able to cope with the initial blow of the pandemic. However, after the relaxation of restrictions imposed on public life, including lockdown, to control the pandemic, it re-emerged in many of these countries leading to a need to re-impose restrictions.
The question is: is it another wave of Corona? Many are reluctant to call it as a second wave. They think the first wave is still going on. What is happening is just a slight increase or decrease in infection from time to time. In their opinion, the attack of the pandemic could be considered as a second wave if the infection rate significantly increases again after it has come down under total control once. [K‡ivbv fvBivm: ‡m‡KÛ Ih‡?f Kx Ges ‡miKg wKQy wK Avm‡Z hv‡”Q? – BBC News evsjv, 21 June 2020].
Let me explain the climate factor a little bit. Many viruses that target the respiratory tract, including the novel Corona virus, become more powerful in cold weather. The Corona infection may be exacerbated by the simultaneous attack by the other microorganisms responsible for diseases like pneumonia, flu, cold, and cough. In addition, the condition of patients with lung problems like asthma or bronchitis worsens during the winter. If you review the spread of the virus so far, you will see that the infection started in China during winter in December, 2019. It then spread rapidly to the countries in the cold zone. However, in addition to the cold weather, the extent to which the countries have been able to take timely and effective action on transnational migration and public health issues, such as lockdown, crowd control, mask wear and hand sanitation, to control the infection might have also played a role. On the other hand, in relatively warm countries, the spread of the virus has been relatively slow and controlled.
When the virus first spreads in Bangladesh during March-April this year, the hot season has already started. Although the number of infected and dead and the detection rate compared to tests performed gradually increased over the first 3-4 months, it has dropped by almost half in the last couple of months. Where an average of three and a half thousand patients were being diagnosed every day in May, June and July, it dropped to about one and a half thousand in September, while all kinds of activities other than educational institutions, such as public transport, shopping malls, offices, courts, factories, and so on had been reopened in full swing. So, what have reduced the infection? The authority may say, we have handled the situation well. On the contrary, critics will say, that’s actually a reflection of reduced number of tests performed. Even if this criticism is true, does not the decline of the detection rate compared to tests from above 20% to about half, i.e., close to 10% mean that the virus has weakened? However, the reality is that the virus is still active enough.
I don’t think the country is in a position to think of imposing ‘lockdown’ again. Therefore, we need to take utmost care to make sure that such a situation would not arise. Strong campaign and administrative measures are indespansable to enforce mask wear and hand sanitation and to control unwarranted public movement and gatherings. Along with the administration and health department, local people’s representatives, socio-political activists and the mass people also need to be effectively engaged in the overall activities. The students and teachers of schools, colleges and madrasahs can play an important role in the campaign. There are innumerable mosques all over the country. Other religious places of worship also have considerable mass connection. These can be used to reach a wider population. Consideration also needs to be given to how the country’s public health experts can be more involved in the overall work.
The government seems to be quite conscious and committed to enforcing the issue of wearing masks. Mobile courts have already begun cracking down on movement without wearing masks. Besides, if the ‘No Mask, No Service’ policy announced by the government could properly be implemented, there will be a big progress in this regard, but its implementation in practice could be quite challenging. According to media reports, in addition to the fines for disobeying the instructions, masks are also being handed over to the people penalized. As part of the mask campaign, free masks can be distributed to the poor across the country. Not only will the masks reach their hands, it will also play an important role in creating awareness among the wider population.
Newspapers have reported that, in many districts of the country, local MPs / administrations have taken such initiatives. Many of them have taken up the program of distributing masks in mosques. The issue of extending this program to the grassroots level in all the districts of the country can be actively considered. Public transport, shopping malls, bus / launch stations, etc., play a major role in the spread of the infection. Therefore, special emphasis should also be laid on disinfecting them regularly and limiting public gatherings.
(Dr Muhsin is professor of Pharmacy, Jahangirnagar University).
