Suresh Kumar :
T.S. Elliot may well turn in his grave believing that poetic injustice is being done to his turn of phrase used to describe the transition in political governance taking place in India. But his words succinctly capture the dual syndrome of a somewhat inglorious exit of Manmohan Singh’s government. and the rather hyped-up events surrounding the solemn swearing-in of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister of India.
But, then, this is a parliamentary democracy where the ‘winner takes all’ even if only by gaining 31% of the popular vote. This adverse arithmetic does not detract from the merits of Modi’s well orchestrated election campaign .He invested significant time, energy and efforts to the success supplemented by several millions-strong workforce of the BJP, RSS and its allied organisations. The victory is indeed a tribute to this exceptionally brilliant team work and superb execution of a carefully-crafted strategy.
In contrast, neither the Congress nor many of the provincial political bigwigs, with the exception of Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu , Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Navin Patnaik in Orissa, as incumbent chief ministers, could hold any candle to this Modi blitz.
Therefore, the incoming PM does come in with a bang. He has not faulted a single step along the way – from humbly kneeling-down at the Parliamentary portals before being formally elected by his Party MPs to authorising invitations to the SAARC heads of government to attend his swearing-in ceremony. Every move has proved to be a master-stroke in burnishing his democratic credentials in statesmanship.
The media has been abuzz with rumours on the composition of his professed preference for a competent, compact cabinet of no more than 25 ministers. Yet, with proportional representation for his NDA allies, he seems to have a free hand in quelling any bickerings in his party or among the allies This augers well as well begun is half done especially as neither he nor his cabinet colleagues can harbour any illusions about the enormity of challenges ahead. The UPA-2 government has left behind a whole swathe of poorly-finished and unfinished agenda, mired as they were, in many of their own sins of commission and omission.
Only two of Manmohan’s 39 senior and 60-odd cabinet colleagues could re-elected – just barely. This is a sad indictment for a man credited with ushering in economic reforms in India as it was tottering in terms of financial reserves and fiscal excesses. Some say that even the credit for reforms belonged to the political dexterity and courage of the then prime minister Narasimha Rao who allowed Manmohan to take credit!
Presiding over two successive government, during the last 10 years, Manmohan was barely assertive but for a few times – once over the nuclear deal with the US and last year when he waxed eloquent about liberating animal spirits. The first was vitiated by a scam over buying the votes of MPs so as to secure the nuclear deal, and the other was offset by him acquiescing in a budgetary fix to squeeze expenditure and inflate revenue estimates.
Of course, the intellectual and the urban English-speaking elites found him, publicly, as a figure of integrity and wisdom; while privately circulating jokes deriding him. Manmohan’s tenure is an object lesson for a professional gone sour by choosing to cling on to the vestiges of the office, even with no ‘power’ to speak of.
While Modi has an enviable track-record of delivering on his developmental agenda at the state level, his critics will conclude that anybody can achieve it in vibrant Gujarat but, at the Centre, it’s a different story. Similarly, his rumoured cabinet colleagues have not had much experience in ‘working the Delhi echelons of bureaucracy’ except in relatively junior positions under Vajpayee. So, they will all have much catching-up to do, while the huge expectations that Modi and they have stoked-up will mean that, inevitably, some disappointment will set in. Besides, effective governance is like making an omelette and you will need to break some eggs, egos and vested interests – almost entrenched in the system that prevails in the Delhi corridors.
Refreshingly, Modi will bring a somewhat hands-on and almost authoritarian-style decision-making matrix to Delhi – not seen since Mrs Gandhi, in the early 70s. The overwhelming mandate received by him and his thumping majority in the parliament, will prevent the actions and analyses-paralyses that dogged Manmohan and will, hopefully, be a thing of the past. There is no reason to believe that Modi will not adhere to federalism, in spirit and in letter, as he has been in the forefront against encroachment by the central government into state-turf. This is critically important as Modi will know that the central government can, at best, formulate policies and support by way of funding and expertise as well as the successful roll-out of the various projects and plans. Again, he would know that his writ will not run in many of the states, some of which are still ruled by his erstwhile but now vanquished opponents.
Modi can learn from President Obama, who repeated a huge popular mandate himself, for a second term as President, but only with majority Republicans in the Congress. Therefore, Obama will be remembered by what he could not achieve, as he struggles through two terms in the White House. Therefore, for Modi, this will be a test of his governance, in action.
As Manmohan departs with a whimper, his proclaimed friendship with Obama, during the G 20 Summits, will be put to test. A private joke has been that Obama applauded him for saying very little and nodding amiably on the basis that even the little that Manmohan mumbled was neither audible nor made much sense. Some might say that the knives are out even within his party with the first jab coming from his former press advisor. The former Congress Chief Minister of Punjab has criticised him for not behaving like a PM in office and others attributing the drubbing in the poll to his government’s inadequacies.
This is harsh retribution for Manmohan, who I, personally, found to be one of the gentlest souls, unfailingly courteous and yet, decidedly uneasy with the crown of thorns that he wore grudgingly. He must be now breathing easy and contemplating about the past and the future.
(The author is a veteran banker and now Chairman of the Values Group in the UAE)
