Shah Alam Nur :
Some 78,323 buildings will be destroyed completely if a 6-magnitude earthquake shakes Dhaka originating from its beneath, causing havoc throughout the densely populated capital city, says a recent government study report.
In case of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake originating from Madhupur Fault, the study says, some 72,316 buildings in the city will be damaged totally while 53,166 partially.
It says if an 8.5-magnitude tremor from the plate boundary of Fault-2 hits the region, some 238,164 buildings will be destroyed completely across the country. Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) under the Food and Disaster Management Ministry conducted the study in recent time.
There will be an economic loss of about US$5,112 million for only structural damage in case of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake from the Madhupur Fault, it estimates.
“Economic loss due to damage of structures will be $950 million and $1,575 million respectively in case of an 8-magnitude earthquake from the plate boundary-2 and in case of a 6-magnitude earthquake from under Dhaka city,” the study says.
Some 50 million tonnes of debris, equal to 5,880,000 truckloads (25 tonnes for per truck), will be generated if a 6-magnitude earthquake jolts the city from beneath of it.
A 7.5-magnitude earthquake from the Madhupur Fault will generate a total of 50 million tonnes of debris, killing some 531,029 people instantly and injuring 90,948 others.
According to the study, at least 10 major hospitals, 90 schools in the capital will be destroyed completely while another 241 hospitals and clinics, 30 police stations and four fire stations partially in case of a 7.5 magnitude quake.
Bangladesh is situated at a high-risk zone for earthquake and an unprecedented human disaster may occur in the city anytime for even a moderate to heavy tremor, Dr Maksudur Rahman, an urban environmental management and planning researcher, told The New Nation on Monday.
Referring to three major earthquakes of the region, he said a powerful earthquake needs at least 100-150 years to be originated for a particular region and in that sense it is overdue for Bangladesh and parts of Assam, as 112 years have passed by since a heavy tremor from Dawki Fault hit the region. “So, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to a powerful earthquake.”
Dr. Rahman stressed the need for demolishing old and risky buildings of the city as a first step towards minimising casualties in such natural disasters.
“If we can maintain the Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) in constructing new structures, we can minimise causalities and damages to some extent,” he said.
Another earthquake and tsunami expert, Dr. ASM Maksud Kamal, said, “As a number of moderate to heavy earthquakes are overdue for some parts of the country, including the capital, it is important to get ready for the possible disasters by raising safety awareness of people.”
Dr. Kamal, also a teacher of Geography and Environmental Science of Dhaka University, feared that if a quake of lower magnitude lasts for a minute it might destroy 80-90 per cent of the urban concrete structures.
“Gas leakage management, power supply control, firefighting, alternative power generation, wireless communication system, heavy equipment for removing debris and emergency clinical facilities are the top priority areas for attention,” he said.
