President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Dhaka and the Indian State of Goa was a game-changer for some and fate changer for many. It was significant because it was fraught with immense strategic, economic, and political consequences, which may, ultimately reshape South, Southeast and Central Asia — bringing in radical changes in state-to-state relations, diplomacy and balance of power. In South Asia one thing is certain : diplomatically and strategically, China has the nations in this region, Including India and Pakistan, where it wants them to be – although they don’t yet appear to realize it. Pakistan is increasingly dependent on China.
India is struggling to effectively compete with China when its biggest challenge remains to be Pakistan, about which its leaders have a decisive blind spot and a lack of imagination. It is riddled with mistrust, militarism and missed opportunities devoid of normal socio-economic relations. Both countries would benefit significantly by normalizing their relations. Given the right set of circumstances, the India-Pakistan and even China- India relations could normalize very quickly.
This would require politically powerful leaders on all sides, who have charisma and who enjoy strong political and popular support. At present such circumstances do not exist either in Pakistan or India. Narendra Modi’s attitude is, at best opportunistic and, at worst, reticent about Pakistan, as is his party and government. In Pakistan, Nawaz Shariff is politically weak.
Other South Asian nations are seeking better economic and diplomatic relations with China, invariably on China’s terms. China’s massive $ 38.05 billion investment plans in Bangladesh is set to open a new horizon to the country’s socio-economic development. It may turn out to be a strategic game changer in the region and a fate changer for the millions by eliminating poverty. China has invested $51 billion in Pakistan, $22 billion in India and billions more in other countries of the region.
China’s President Xi Jinping has already gained a great height, importance and reputation by his ability and achievements as an architect of international stature. Under his able leadership and with his vision, plus China’s obvious strategic and military drive and financial largesse, it is China’s star overall that is rising in Asia and Africa and more particularly in South and Central Asia.
One obvious trend in South Asia is the increasing entrenchment of China and its interests throughout the region. While India and China compete strategically, both nations can engage in many ways. Despite their border and territorial disputes being unresolved, their two-way trade relationship is worth $ 7 billion. China needs stability while matters are resolved in the South China Sea-as much as possible on China’s terms. India also needs stability to develop economically. It would prefer cooperation with China to competition, which is possible given the ability of both nations to deal with strategic complexities. Once China and India resolve their differences and normalize relations, their biggest challenge thereafter would be removing other nations’ anxieties and meeting their expectations, particularly to an insecure Pakistan. India would benefit immensely by normalizing relations with Pakistan, if only because, strategically, this might take its arch enemy, armed with nuclear arsenal, away from the embrace of the emerging superpower, China.
The need for China is to ensure that the growth and developments which occur due to China’s initiatives in the region benefit all nations and the people concerned and not just China and the Chinese. Challenge for all South Asian nations is to prevent China from encircling and excessively exploiting them. To achieve this, South Asia needs to be developed into a politically cohesive and economically unified region. The obvious precondition is to move beyond mistrust and old paradigms and engage with each other in meaningful and mutually beneficial ways. A strong SAARC can blunt China’s excessive influence if India is open minded and helpful both economically and diplomatically with its neighbors.
India needs high and sustained economic growth to overcome some of its serious developmental issues, such as pervasive poverty that afflicts 40 percent of its population, major deficiencies in health and hygiene, including 70 percent of its population not having access to a proper latrine, and widespread malnutrition among about half the population. India and Pakistan can create a separate independent and neutral state in J&K, making it the 9th SAARC member state.
This will cut the defense budgets of both countries to a half, dispensing with the nuclear missiles, nuclear submarines and the Russian choppers. Reduction in defense expenditure will boost India’s economic growth making India attractive to foreign trade and investment. Additionally, such growth will offer India strategic options to enhance its position in South Asia. This will depend on how effectively India and Pakistan resolve their long outstanding vitriolic relationship over “Disputed Kashmir”. At the latest BRICS summit in the Indian tourist hub of Goa, host Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the leaders of China, Russia Brazil and South Africa issued a joint declaration on a range of measures including the setting up of a new credit rating agency and fighting tax evasion. They also agreed to work together to combat ” cross- border” terrorism, but Modi’s guests held off from signing up to his fierce condemnation of India’s arch-rival Pakistan as the “mother-ship of terrorism”.
Under Xi Jinping’s leadership China has established its own organizations and launched initiatives . These include South Asian nations, bringing in a big change in the region being the desire of India and Pakistan to be involved in the Chinese -led organizations and strategic imperatives. First is the BRICS comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Significantly this brings China, India and Russia together in a way that may have caused the U.S. and its allies strategic concerns. It was formed in 2011 with the aim to challenge Western hegemony.
The nations, with a joint estimated GDP of $16 trillion, and 53 percent of world’s population, set up their own bank in parallel to the Washington based IMF and WB , holding summits rivaling the G7 forum. In the Goa summit President Xi said BRICS countries had much to be proud of and had contributed to more than 50 percent of global growth in the last decade. Second, is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that has seen China gain significant influence in Central Asia. In a rare confluence of effort, India and Pakistan are seeking full membership of SCO.
The third body is the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB). These international initiatives are President Xi’s brainchild and are intended to open up China’s vast land- locked central and western regions to the outside world and financially integrate Asia, Africa, Latin America and Europe in mutual benefit.
[Writer was an MP in Bangladesh’s 7th and 8th parliaments. He is author, columnist and political analyst]
