Tanbir Uddin Arman :
Although all pre-election opinion surveys and analyses about BJP’s potential to hit the jackpot in the 16th Lok Sabha election have not remained unproven, things now sink into obscurity that how the Narendra Modi regime will go ahead with domestic issues and foreign policy.
Modi has a strong allegiance to the prosperity and economic development, and dedication in stimulating investment and rooting out corruption, that we have seen in Gujarat for which he has been Chief Minister since 2001, but it is likely that Modi’s belief in hyper Hindu nationalism, less dependency on the other parties of the alliance and distinctive majority in the election will make him and his party – BJP much more of authoritative and muscular nature.
However, much about Modi’s religious extremism and his connections with communal flare-ups is known enough to all. The 2002 Gujarat flare-up, wherein Modi was accused of allowing the riot to happen, had claimed the lives of more than 1000 Muslims and rendered about 200,000 people displaced. As these are Modi’s previous records, question may arise as to why most of the Indians opted for a big change and cast their votes in Modi’s favour? Yes, it is because of the Congress’s failure in promoting economic development, tackling corruptions, inflations and unemployment, which has obligated many Indians to feel a need for a change. And here Modi could very successfully utilize these frustrations and angers of the people as leverages in election campaigns and thus in winning the people’s mind. However, he has to keep in mind that the people in this globalized world are now much more aware of human security, human rights violations, and religious and ethnic discriminations. And he might not blank out that the world is now tired of seeing violence, ethnic cleansing, communality, religious militancy and attacks on minorities any more.
South Asia is one the least integrated regions in the world in terms of cross-border infrastructures such as transport, trade and energy. The region possesses three distinct features that very few regions around the world do. First and foremost, the region has long been plunging into violent religious militancy. Second, it is a region of perplexed ethnic, linguistic and cultural diversity. And thirdly – it has the highest population density in the world. So, scraping religious and ethnic conflicts, promoting regional integration and stability, and diluting the fast-growing population burden should be the more priority issues in the region, which requires well coordinated and collective responses from all of member states of SAARC. India as the biggest stakeholder in this region has a lot to do in this connection. Although some initiatives have been made for the integration and stability in the region by the former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of the Congress Party, most of them remain hitherto undone. Now the Modi regime has got the opportunity to take these initiatives some steps further. Yes, the BJP election manifesto has mentioned the need for peace, prosperity, and political stability so as to achieve growth and development in South Asia, but they have to prove it by making a real progress.
If Modi takes a hard line against Bangladesh as he has told during his election campaigns, and expels Bengali-speaking Muslim minorities from India-what he called ‘illegal immigrants’, the ramifications would undoubtedly be the regional instability and communal flare-ups in and out of India, adding fuel to the fire. BJP should empathize in the right way with the fact that anti-Indian sentiments outside India would be on the rise if it takes such stands. The BJP leaderships cannot go on forgetting Bangladesh is a big concern for India. Keeping an amicable tie with Bangladesh is necessary not just for them, rather it the necessity for whole India’s territorial integrity and sovereignty out of the former’s geographical proximity to India’s already volatile northwestern states.
Moreover, India does need transit facilities to its Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya through Bangladesh’s territory. So, because of India’s complex geographical settings and its dependency on Bangladesh, the Modi regime will have to reconsider its stands vis-à-vis Bangladesh and the Muslim minorities living in India.
There is a strong need to rebuild bilateral relations on the basis of cooperation and peace. In relation to Pakistan, Modi during his election campaigns underlined the importance of engaging her and insisted that ‘anger cannot be a basis for a policy towards Pakistan’. On the other hand, Modi’s intention to revise India’s ‘no first strike’ doctrine on nuclear weapons leaves Pakistan and China with some degree of ambiguity and security concerns on how it would revise and update the current nuclear doctrine. However, any revision of India’s nuclear policy will be the reversal of the existing doctrine of ‘no first strike’ which might aim at Pakistan. If the Modi regime does so, Pakistan will exasperatedly react to it. But in consequences, it would inevitably cause security menaces in the region and vex China as it has also a policy of ‘no first strike’. However, Modi is anticipated to be found to be more decisive in considering the consequences of alteration of India’s nuclear policy. As much of Modi’s ‘Guajarati Model’ is about economic development, he should not forget that only regional stability and friendly relations with the neighborhood can render economic development to happen. ASEAN may be an instance in this connection. Integrity and cooperation among the states in Southeast Asia guarantee not just a peaceful and stable neighbourhood for them, but have made them economically and technologically virile in Southeast Asia and beyond.
The former premier – Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the BJP could successfully establish a ‘bus diplomacy’ between longstanding rivals- Delhi and Lahore as a gesture of trust and confidence building. It will not take us by surprise if BJP’s new leaderships take this some steps further and establish relations anew with Pakistan. Modi while he was the Chief Minister of Gujarat established good economic relations with China, and a large number of Chinese enterprises invested there, contributing to the economic development of the state. He can now play a decisive role in metamorphosing such relations into political ones with China and Pakistan and thus in ensuring a stable neighborhood.
Finally, one continuing trait in the Indian foreign policy is that it is driven much by ‘hegemonic stability theory’. Nonetheless, the BJP leaderships will have to come out of this hegemonic attitude towards the neighbours, and base their foreign relations on idealism, forfeiting the competition for power accumulation. They should not forget that economic development of a country would be rendered possible if only and when domestic serenity and regional stability be made possible.
(Tanbir Uddin Arman works as a Research Assistant in BIPSS, Dhaka)
