Neeta Lal :
THE BIGGEST takeaway from the mammoth general elections exercise in India – inarguably the most important one for the country since Independence in 1947 – has been that it is not entrenched corruption (as was preconceived), but the governance deficit and lack of job and economic opportunities, that are playing on the minds of the voters.
In survey after survey, the young demographic – which has come out in hordes to vote this time – cite paucity of jobs, and lackluster economic parameters as most niggling worries. In televised interviews, many even frankly admitted that they’d rather have a corrupt but dynamic government at the Center than an honest and an inefficient one!
What does this tell us about the general mood? That the government that assumes power to form the 15th Lok Sabha (lower house) must swiftly fast track economic growth and facilitate an enabling environment for job creation.
The two most-watched protagonists of the main political parties – Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi – have hardly dwelt on the corruption issue. Erstwhile Bihar chief minister Laloo Prasad Yadav, and Congress’ estranged coalition partner Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSR Congress – both of who were jailed in corruption scams – have got a rousing welcome from the public. This is a clear signal that the electorate is rooting for them because of their administrative acumen and perceived earnestness to work for public good.
Data from the Association for Democratic Reforms, a transparency group compiled over a 10-year period shows that an increasing number of candidates facing criminal charges are also being fielded by political parties at all levels of elections, including state polls.
The analysis revealed that a candidate with a criminal case had a 23 per cent chance of winning elections while an honest one lagged behind with chances of nearly half – just 12 per cent.
Two other new studies suggest stronger correlation between wealth, crime and winning ability. Overall 17 per cent of the candidates contesting the 2014 elections have a criminal background, up from 15 per cent in 2009, when the last general elections were held.
Worse, findings showed that a candidate’s winning potential surges with the seriousness of the charges against him. For instance, those without a criminal case had a seven per cent chance of winning, which ratcheted up to 19 per cent if the candidate had at least one ordinary charge. For those facing a serious charge, such as murder, the winning chance shot up to a whopping 25 per cent.
The last two phases of the nine-phase elections have 20 per cent candidates each who have had a brush with the law. Since 2003, when disclosures for candidates became mandatory, and publicly available on the election commission website, it emerged that at least 7.9 per cent candidates with a criminal case on an average had contested various polls. While voters do want to “penalise” corrupt candidates, this “negative effect” is offset by factors such as a candidate’s wealth.
What has brought about such a fundamental change in the public mindset is worth pondering over. Not so long ago, the Aam Aadmi Party, with almost a single-point agenda of wiping out corruption, was hailed as a pioneering force to reckon with. Before that, social activist Anna Hazare had tapped into a groundswell of public angst against institutionalized corruption to become the messiah of the masses. His pledge to uproot corruption from the body politic resonated with millions.
But now it seems corruption has taken a back seat. People want the fundamental issues of food, water, shelter, jobs and education to be addressed forthwith. No matter if the candidate with a dubious record accomplishes it.
Worrying as these signs are, as countdown begins to election result day on May 16, whichever government comes to power must send out an unambiguous signal that as far as its own conduct goes, there will be zero tolerance for corruption in its ranks. This is not only desirable but also imperative for India’s future and prosperity.
(Neeta Lal is a Delhi-based journalist)
