M A Hossain :
Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Egyptian physician who ensconced himself at the helm of al-Qaeda (AQ) after Osama bin Laden’s death in 2011, was killed by the US drone strike in Afghanistan on the 31st July, 22. Biden’s administration is hailing Al-Zawahiri’s death as a ‘hugely significant blow’ to AQ, especially considering the manner of orchestrating the killing after the elimination of High-Value Targets (HVT) like Osama bin Laden, Abu Baker Al Baghdadi or Qasem Soleimani. In the past, these types of targeted killings used to have a daunting impact on jihadist organisations, but not a decisive effect. It also could not help to eliminate terrorist attacks and affected neither the rate of terrorist attacks nor the likelihood of organisational collapse. Probably, neutralising these types of HVT could achieve an immediate vision rather than an ultimate vision for the US administration.
Zawahiri was the long-time Deputy Leader of AQ with Osama bin Laden, and he undeniably provided much of the intellectual foundation for AQ’s international agenda of committing mass-casualty terrorist attacks and promoting sharia governance. AQ under Zawahiri was deliberately communicating with local and regional jihadi organisations, content to quietly rebuild and regroup. Zawahiri’s quietism strategy was validated by the patience and perseverance that restore the Taliban to power. He carried the movement together through his force of personality, and strategic vision, which was to allow the various offshoots of AQ to pursue their local and regional agenda and have complete tactical independence. It has been successful.
Ayman al-Zawahiri leaves behind a robust network of not only strategically aligned but tactically independent AQ affiliates operating in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Al-Shabaab and Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin have a strong bastion in East Africa and the Sahel, respectively. AQAP is still fighting in Yemen and AQIS has spread to Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, and Pakistan. Hurras al-Din is working in the Levant. He created an extensive operational bureaucracy in the organizational system with a clear chain of command that ensures that the Group’s fate is not tied to any single leader, including himself. Under his leadership, AQ expanded its reach from Mali to Kashmir. He faced challenges in Syria and Iraq; but ultimately, his strategy has been successful being not to be extirpated there. During Zawahiri’s tenure, he portrayed AQ as a moderate extremist but did not mean that it has eschewed terrorism or given up its struggle. So, we can see that AQ tends to survive after the death of its leader because of its operating organisational bureaucracy, enduring ideology and communal support.
It is definitely a massive success for intelligence operations, but not for counterterrorism missions. It proves that America can carry out any targeted killing mission without favour. Now, if we look into the trend of such announcement of neutralising HVTs by the US administration, then it will be clear to us. When the incumbent administration of the US is losing its popularity and the electoral procedure is nearer, then it needs to assure the US citizens that this administration is capable of safeguarding the nation. Americans consider safety as its top priority in their daily life, especially during post 9/11 epoch. So, the Biden administration needs to cover up the shambles it faced in handling Covid-19, the Ukraine war, and the imbroglio with the internal economy in the same way its predecessor did with the likes of Osama bin Laden, Qasem Soleimani, and Baghdadi. However, in my opinion, it is not in the offing that Zawahiri’s death will hamper AQ much in the long run. But the current debacle necessitates the US to demonstrate its military prowess that America will not hesitate to strike anywhere around the world when America’s safety is concerned. Another intention of this strike is to subdue the Taliban and allude the Afghan Government aware that they have violated the Doha Deal and negotiation with the US to unfreeze the 9 billion in assets that Washington is holding.
This whole theatricality is nothing different from the trends adopted by the US during Cold War era. It can showcase the military strength to the other superpowers. But at the end, the obvious question remains yet to be answered as to who is behind the creation of this AQ, Saddam Hussein, ISIL, Taliban or who trained those espionage or law enforcement agencies of countries which are indicted for gross human rights violations? We know the answer and hope to stop creating Frankenstein further.
(The writer is a political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh. His Blog handle is: MAHNEWS24/7).
