The global lender World Bank has predicted that Bangladesh’s GDP growth would plunge to 2.0–3.0 per cent in the 2019-20 fiscal amid the fall of garment exports, lower private investment and other disruptions caused by coronavirus pandemic. The predictions were published recently in its biennial update report on the South Asia region’s economies. Not only that a lower revenue collection against a higher spending could widen the deficit to 7.7 per cent of the GDP in the outgoing fiscal year, the WB noted. While GDP growth was expected to touch the ceiling, the COVID-19 attack would force it to remain between 1.2 and 2.9 per cent in the 2020–21 fiscal year and 2.8 to 3.9 per cent in 2021–22. It warned that ongoing pandemic may threaten food security too. Obviously it will be a big blow to country’s economy which earlier enjoyed around 7 per cent steady growth for couple of years.
Country last witnessed only 2.83 per cent GDP growth in 1989–90 due to the devastating flood. This time, the GDP would witness a downslide trend as economic growth would shrink due to falling of exports and imports since January. Moreover, falling oil price is likely to add salt to the wound. The inflow of remittance by migrant workers from the oil-rich Arab countries will be shuttered. In the local level — the factories, transports and job market are closed from March 26. The low-income people, especially poor workers, who have little or no access to healthcare or social safety nets, are hit hard by coronavirus outbreak. Apart from huge losses caused directly by pandemic, widespread corruption is another reason that would create deep crack in the fragile economy. Without taking long-standing pragmatic policy with harnessing the corrupt ones it would not be possible to survive absorbing the aftershock of the pandemic.
Those who are responsible for systematically ruining the economy cannot be trusted to save the economy. The government officers and ministers were found so obliging for personal benefit that nothing short of total overhauling of the government can be ensured by them. There is no any such hope too. We certainly ask those economists who dishonestly misled the government. We want to hear from them.
