BSS, Dhaka :
Bangladesh achieved average 6.3 percent growth in the past four years from 2010 to 2013 and the steady trend in growth would be back in the next two years, shaking off the trail impact of last year’s political unrest, the latest report of the World Bank (WB) said.
The annual report, “Global Economic Prospects”, released from Washington DC last night (11pm Bangladesh Time), forecasts a constant recovery of the country’s economy in the next two years, which felt a jolt this year due to pre-election social and political unrest.
The report projects GDP growth of 5.9 percent for 2015 and 6.2 percent for 2016 while it put the growth rate at 5.4 percent for the current financial year ending in June.
Already, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) projected 6.3 percent growth for the outgoing 2013-14 financial year when Finance Minister AMA Muhith in his proposed budget for the forthcoming 2014-15 financial year targeted 7.3 percent growth rate.
Leading economists and the different think-tanks observed that achieving the 7.3 percent GDP growth would not be an impossible task though it seems highly challenging against the backdrop of sluggish trend in investment and looming political concern.
The WB in its report put the GDP forecast at a lower level, but did not detailed the reasons that would holdback the growth prospect. The report, however, gave some relatively latest data about some major economic indicators including inflation, export, remittance inflow and domestic demand.
The WB apparently showed that the past political unrest and slowing remittance are among the major drawbacks of taking the economic growth to a higher trajectory.
The report though showed the growth rate at lower than the government’s achievement and target, it put Bangladesh ahead of Pakistan and Nepal in the mid-term growth prospect as the two SAARC countries economy would grow by 4.0 percent as against Bangladesh’s 6-plus percent growth.
According to the report, Bangladesh’s exports grew rapidly in 2013 as demand from Euro nations and North America improved, but it slowed down in the first quarter of 2014 partly due to the lagged effect of disruptions caused by political unrest.
“In Bangladesh, exports are projected to improve after short- lived effects of political turmoil and transition to better compliance with factory safety standards and working conditions. But upward wage pressures in absence of productivity gains could erode its competitiveness in global markets,” the report said.
