AFP, Caracas :
After a tumultuous year in which he declared himself Venezuela’s acting president and at times seemed close to toppling socialist leader Nicolas Maduro, Juan Guaido will bid for re-election as the parliament’s speaker on Sunday.
While the first half of 2019 was full of drama, tension, an abortive military uprising, arbitrary detentions, US sanctions and a political tug-of-war, by the end of the year opposition leader Guaido’s push seemed to have run out of steam.
Maduro appears firmly entrenched in the presidential palace, thanks primarily to the support of the armed forces, and Guaido is merely attempting to hold onto his primary role, as president of the National Assembly.
“We have more votes than we need,” said Guaido about his chances of re-election.
It’s the “most likely scenario,” said political scientist Luis Vicente Leon, as the opposition-controlled parliament already has an agreement in place. It is an important step for Guaido to continue his power struggle with Maduro after declaring himself in overall charge on January 23, 2019 – a move acknowledged by more than 50 countries, including the United States.
He claimed the right to do so after declaring Maduro’s 2018 re-election fraudulent, insisting the constitution authorized his ascension to the presidency.
But once Guaido is re-elected as National Assembly speaker, not much will change on Venezuela’s political landscape, according to Peter Hakim, president emeritus at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.
“I would guess Maduro keeps hold of the government with the support of the military, while Guaido heads an opposition that remains divided on issues and strategy,” Hakim told AFP.
Guaido insists he will “do more, correct things, redouble efforts” but his challenge to the Chavist regime has been stalled for months.
For all his backing from Washington – including sanctions against senior regime figures – Guaido’s momentum has been stifled by Maduro, who can count on support from China, Russia and Cuba.
Guaido’s popularity has waned and recent accusations of corruption among his inner circle have been damaging, but he remains “the most popular political figure in Venezuela,” according to Michael Shifter, Inter-American Dialogue’s president.
Some 44 percent of Venezuelans are in favor of his re-election as the parliament’s speaker, according to a survey by Datanalisis.
