Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :
Russia’s primary objective was to persuade the NATO alliance that Russia would take all possible measures against Ukraine if it joins the alliance. The second is, to prove that Russia will no longer accept the kind of pressure that the Ukrainian government has exerted on all Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine over the past six/ seven years. Although Russia aimed at a very destructive war, this goal seems to have been achieved somewhat. The Ukrainian government and Ukrainians want their country to regain its territorial integrity and sovereignty. In other words, Russia should not lose control of various areas, including Donbass, Crimea and Mariupol in the south. Ukraine has been resisting Russian forces in cooperation with the United States and the NATO alliance, and has even launched counter-attacks elsewhere. In particular, the United States wants Russia to never stand on its own feet in world geopolitics. On the other hand, it would not be a surprise, if Russia is defeated in the Ukraine war, if Russia carried out a limited nuclear attack on the question of its existence. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war situation in Ukraine is likely to take a more dangerous turn. After nearly three months of fighting, the advance of the Russian army has come to a haltby a smaller number ofUkrainian army associated with the Westerners. In that case, Putin has a tough choice – how and when to reinforce the infantry, increase the cost of the war, or escalate the conflict.
Can Vladimir Putin still be considered a rational actor? Is it worth continuing to talk to him? Even if we believe the West must defeat Russia, is it not also necessary to offer Putin a “way out” (off-ramp) of the crisis to save face? Could this be the key to preventing further escalation of the Ukraine war? What price will the West have to pay in order to dissuade Moscow from new interventions and raise Ukraine from its ruins? How has the war changed China’s international role, and what will this role look like in the future? It appears difficult to provide simple and definite answers of so many questions. In order to see how events are unfolding more clearly, we may imagine different endgame scenarios to the current conflict.
More importantly, though, Russia is a country that has made documented use of retaliatory chemical weapons and cyber-attacks against adversaries, not to mention President Putin’s use of veiled nuclear threats. The fact that the West is still willing to employ its favorite economic weapon with such vigor, in spite of these risks, demonstrates the severity of the situation and the strategic importance that is placed on these ever-popular tools of foreign and security policy. Indeed, doing nothing, or not doing enough, could lead to an emboldened Putin, willing to repeat his actions elsewhere in Europe.
Putin is not going back from the war in the face of international condemnation and pressure, even may suffer from massive embargo on the war in Ukraine. The whole Western world is united against Putin. Meanwhile, Russia is not a country to give up. The West’s ban has forced European countries to buy fuel and gas by Russia’s own currency, the ruble, instead of the dollar. As a result, Russia’s ruble is getting vibrancy in the international market instead of the collapse of, Russian economy. The size of the Ukrainian army is smaller. But they are receiving training from NATO and the United States. Although previously supplied with small arms from the United States and NATO have now increased their arms and ammunition like drones and missiles. With all these weapons, Ukraine is much more organized and morale-boosting than ever before. President Zelensky even said he would expel Russian occupying forces from Ukraine and hoped the war would end in a few months.
Sweden and Finland have already applied for NATO membership, despite warnings from President Putin that joining NATO would have dire consequences. NATO is also interested in giving them membership. But Turkey has blocked it. Turkey has not agreed to include Sweden and Finland in the NATO alliance. Both countries have in the past condemned PKK’s military crackdown on rebels in Syria and imposed sanctions on arms sales. However, the United States and Germany say that despite Turkey’s objections, they are in favor of granting NATO membership to the two countries and that the NATO alliance would be stronger if they join NATO.
It is not yet time to clarify who is currently in a strong position and who is in a weak position in the Russia-Ukraine war situation. However, it appears that in this war, Putin is fighting alone with the West. Under such circumstances, will Putin’s real goal and purpose in the Ukraine war be successful? Ukraine war is a threat to the world? And what is the end of the result of the Russian-Ukrainian war? The answers to such questions are driven by doubts and suspicions. Nonetheless, the liberal, progressive and humanitarian organizations of the world, peace missions in response to the humanitarian call of the United Nations, must take any other steps, including diplomatic engagement with all the warring parties to end the brutal war on earth. This is what all peace loving people of the world expect.
(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar and VDP).
