Sonjoy Chakraborty :
It is clear that increasing traffic congestion does impose costs upon not only travelers but also on the whole economic activities and finally affect national income. It has been difficult to develop and apply empirical measures of the extent of those economic costs. This paper describes a modeling approach to estimate economic cost and how Dhaka city traffic congestion affects GDP. A number of studies on congestion have been carried out for Dhaka. But there is little study, especially on the economic impact of congestion in Dhaka city. Most of the study has been conducted only to estimate the congestion cost. The effect of different types of vehicle on congestion has been captured on the basis of marginal congestion by Maitra et al. (2004). Using congestion models, the marginal congestions have been estimated for different road widths, traffic compositions and on-street parking levels. Among the large various types of congestion related study few of them are discussed below.
Mohammad R. A., Bhuiyan A. R. and Sultana S. (2013) attempts to explore the hidden causes of traffic congestion of Dhaka city as well as to shed light its overall consequences. This study is based on the survey of 400 people who were directly associated with this problem. The researchers have also drawn information from the existing literature and various reports of the Government of Bangladesh to clarify the different causes of traffic congestion and its overall effects. The major finding of the study is that there are several factors liable for traffic congestion of Dhaka city and it has adverse effects on the different socio- economic aspects, but he did not measure the overall traffic congestion cost and its economic cost. Singh & Sarkar, (2009) made an attempt to determine congestion pricing in central area of Delhi that is Connaught Place with a view to ensuring desired level of service. Two methods for the determination of optimal pricing were adopted. The first method was related to the point of pricing where the external costs were met by the revenue generated by the pricing level while the second method was the Pricing level needed to maintain a level of service. By using these methods, pricing for car and two-wheeler motorized vehicles had been determined. Varmora and Gundaliya (2013) in their study in the city of Ahmadabad have shown that due to change in carriageway width and vehicle composition, the traffic stream speed and flow also encounter more congestion level along the length of link.
Rao & Rao, (2012) discuss a novel and interesting way to detect the congestion on the urban arterials in India. They suggest using a Wi-Fi signal emitting device and a receiver across the road to identify the congestion. This method was found to be successful in terms of high accuracy of classifying the road as congested or free flowing.Sen et al. (2009) discussed the characteristics of the ITS techniques that need to be developed to cater the traffic conditions and congestion in developing regions and presented a brief description of a few efforts being made in this direction (Rao & Rao, 2012).Shuichi and Hironao (2003) have shown in their study that by improving traffic signaling strategies can improve the traffic situation of the street cars. According to them, their proposed signaling strategy improves the traffic situation of the street cars. Same signaling system can be implemented in Dhaka City to improve our traffic system.
Litman, T. (2015) studied how traffic congestion can significantly affect transport planning decisions. This report describes various factors that affect congestion cost estimates and the evaluation of potential congestion reduction strategies, including analysis scope, baseline speeds, travel time valuation, accident and emission impact analysis, induced travel analysis, and consideration of co-benefits. It discusses how these factors influence planning decisions, and describes best practices recommended by experts. It applies these methods to evaluate various congestion reduction strategies including roadway expansion, improve space efficient modes, pricing reforms, smart growth policies and demand management programs. Fioravante et. ai, (2009) studied in Brazil on environmental impact due to automobiles. Due to demographic changes that have been occurred, the article projects the number and composition of households of Belo Horizonte (Brazil) by household size and marital status and age of reference person, using a multidimensional model developed by Yi (1991) that considers the interdependence between demographic events. However the ambient impact did not occur with the same intensity, because some old vehicles were substituted by new ones that have lower emission of pollutants. Karim (1997) found that limited resources, invested for the development of transport facilities, such as infrastructure and vehicles, coupled with the rapid rise in transport demand, existence of a huge number of non-motorized vehicles on roads, lack of application of adequate and proper traffic management schemes are producing severe transport problems in almost all the urban areas of Bangladesh. Worsening situation of traffic congestion in the streets and sufferings of the inhabitants from vehicle emissions demanded extensive research in this field.
Background of the study
I am in a tiny steel cage attached to a motorcycle, stuttering through traffic in Dhaka, Bangladesh. In the last ten minutes, we have moved forward, maybe three feet, inch by inch, the driver twisting the wheel left and right, wriggling deeper into the block between a delivery truck and a rickshaw in front of us. Up ahead, the traffic is jammed so close together that pedestrians are climbing over pickup trucks and through empty rickshaws to cross the street. Two rows to my left is an ambulance, blue light spinning uselessly. The driver is’ on the road, smoking a cigarette, standing on his tiptoes, looking ahead to where the traffic clears. Every once in a while he reaches into the open door to blow his horn.
Dhaka has the distinct importance in the national and regional urban hierarchy. Administrative functions and all other functions are over concentrated in this capital city. The Dhaka city’s traffic system is considered to be one of the most chaotic ones in the world. The residents are compelled to undergo physical stress and suffer financial losses in terms of man-hours lost on working days. The media, both print and electronic, have been constantly highlighting the sufferings of the commuters in Dhaka city because of the troublesome traffic problem. Though the Government is trying his best, but yet the city did not achieve any sustainable permanent solution. Director General of Bangladesh Railway (BR) Abu Taher said the government has taken a plan to bring dynamic changes in public transportation by setting a very planned and modem railway network. He said that the traffic congestion could be removed from the capital significantly by appropriating the metro rail network and running commuter trains after converting the Tongi- Dhaka route into three lanes and Dhaka-Narayanganj route into two lanes (The Financial Express, September 9, 2012). Various attempts were taken by the governments, including a special meeting with the agencies concerned to devise means to help reduce the intensity of traffic problem in Dhaka city. Some tangible improvements have been achieved, but still far from the targets.
In Dhaka city, every day 21 million trips generated. Out of this huge trips, about total only 5% are carried out by private cars, which however use roughly 80% of the road space and are the main cause of traffic congestion. Yet 28% of the total trips are carried out by buses which only use about 5 % of the road space. What’s more, 58% of the total trips are made by walking, bicycling, or riding on rickshaws, also called non-motorized transport modes (NMT). But these NMT modes barely get proper allocation of road space. There are no dedicated bicycle or rickshaw lane on any roads in Dhaka and less than 25% of roads have separated, paved sidewalks, most of which are either occupied by parked cars or damaged without proper maintenance. NMT users literally have to fight with vehicles for their right of way on roads and thus expose their lives to huge risks. Public transport and non-motorized transport meet mobility needs of 86% of the people in the city while only consuming a small portion of the road space and urban land (World BanK). DITS (1993) study in metropolitan Dhaka revealed that the mode of walking and rickshaware dominated of all trips. Over 60 per cent of trips involved walking alone. Of the remaining trips, some 11 per cent included a significant walking component. Some 40 per cent or more of non-walk trips involved the use of pedal rickshaws. Only about 10 per cent of trips involved motorized public transport services.
Combating Dhaka’s traffic congestion requires short-term and long-term measures. Transportation engineers and urban sociologists must grip, together, why people so compulsively rely on personal cars and what it would take to influence them to use public transport (provided ·there is one that is safe, efficient, and user-friendly). A comprehensive solution involves both
infrastructure planning and passive measures such as educating urban-dwellers about the benefits of using public transport, walking, and exercising civic responsibilities. Planning policies become viable only when they foster a culture of urban ethics. Many authors argue that “underdevelopment is a state of mind,” meaning that progress-resistant cultural habits cause the problems we are in, including traffic congestion. We want mobility without exercising our share of urban responsibilities.
MCCI & CMILT (2010) revealed that traffic jam was liable for the loss of people’s 8.15 million working hours, 40 per cent of which are business hours. The aforesaid money is lost due to 3.2 million business hours wasted in congestion. Again, from another study of Dhaka ransport Coordination Board (DTCB), it has been found that against the speed capacity of 40 kilometers per hour (kph), motorized vehicles can run in the city on a speed of average 15 kph. In reality, the speed is much less now. In fact, the quality of life and mental as well as physical stress remain uncountable which means the loss is much more than the calculated amount. Apart from the mentioned losses, motorists are burning extra liters of fuel or extra cubic metres of compressed natural gas as they crawl along in stop-start traffic on the obstructed roads. “Cars use four times more fuel on congested roads than when traffic is flowing at a normal speed. When a car is at a standstill, stopping and starting or moving slowly in heavy traffic, it uses 24.4 litres of fuel for every 100km driven. If the same car moves in free-flowing traffic, traveling at 50km/h or more, the fuel consumption drops to 6.4litres per 100km” (Financial Express, August 4th, 2011).
Considering the above discussed matter, this paper aims to explore the causes of traffic congestion in Dhaka city, to estimate the cost of traffic congestion and finally to measure the ecopomic impact of traffic congestion.
Objectives of the study
The main objective of the study is to estimate the impacts of traffic congestion in Dhaka city which embedded in the name of the article. The specific objectives of the study are:
a. To Estimate the total traffic congestion cost of Dhaka city with the available data
b. To analyze the Impact of traffic congestion
c. Recommendation for reducing traffic congestion in Dhaka city
Methodology of and data
This is actually a deterministic model to calculate the economic’ cost of traffic congestion of any city of locality. To develop this model, existing modelslliterature have been surveyed and the elements of these model were considered. The secondary data were collected through content analysis from various published sources, including books, online journals, newspapers, magazines, government! non-government organizations like BR T A and ARI, Contd from page 41
previous works on the related issue and reports. The publication manual of AP A (American Psychological Association, 2001) was used for citation of the sources of references that have been used in the study.
Limitation of the Study
To calculate the cost of TCC (Traffic congestion cost) the component TTC (Travel time cost), DWL (Dead-weight loss or Avoidable Social Cost), EC (Travel delay externality cost), VOC (Vehicle operating cost or excess fuel cost due to congestion), EC (Environmental externality cost such as, air/noise pollution), RATC (Road Traffic Accident-Cost) are considered. But due to lack of time & data availability, we cannot calculate VOC (Vehicle operating cost or excess fuel cost) and its value were hired from the study of Khan & Rashidul (2013). On the other hand, there are a very few study that measured the RA TC (Road Traffic Accident Cost). There are 10(ten) sub-component of RTAC. Among the ten components, only one component, that is, Lost
Where, TIC = Travel time cost per vehicle-person per day, t = % Trips, TT = Travel Time, i = vehicle type, j = trip purpose (i.e. work trip, W.T. or non-work trip, N.W.T), k = Time factor (peak or off-peak hour) and m = allowance for short distance and/or less-time sensitive trips (L.T.S) VOT = Value of Time (varying according to travel condition, travel time, mode choice, travel purpose etc) TTV = Travel Time Variability Due to lack of specific detail data on different factors, i.e. the portion of trips in a particular mode for different trip purposes and for different travel times (peak/off-peak hours), the formula stated in (2) is modified according to the currently available data and shown in (3) below. But with specific necessary data, travel time cost can be computed from (2). Therefore, the modified model for estimating traffic congestion cost is:
Where, W.T. is the working trips (assumed to occur during peaks only) and N.W.T. is the nonworking trips with different values of time (VOT) for a particular vehicle type i; TT is the travel time for mode i determined from average vehicular kilometers travelled VKT (Km/day) and average speed. Speed is varied according to travel time condition (peaks/off-peaks). For a certain time condition (peak/off-peak), TTi (hr) = Average VKTi / Average speed; Oi is the passenger occupancy of the vehicle i and Ni is the number of vehicle i.
The major assumptions made for the estimation procedure of and relevant to the TTC are below: 1. All commuter or work trips are assumed to occur at the peak hours only and similarly all nonwork trips are assumed to occur at the off-peak hours only. 2. Average speed corresponding to economically efficient volume (discussed later) of traffic is assumed to be equal to 30 km/hr for all the vehicles and for buses 25 km/hr ( MCCI & CMILT 2010). 3. Working and non-working trips are assumed to have a 50-50% split. 4. TTV, DWL, RTAC, FTC and delay externality costs are estimated approximately from previous observations, not using theoretical approach
The VOT (Value oftime) values for Dhaka city from willingness-to-pay survey regarding traffic congestion are collected from (MCCI and CMILT, 2010). After reviewing the literature, 1.5 times greater VOT is adopted for the peak hour than that for the off-peak hour or N.W.T. trips.
About TTV losses, it may sometimes be incorporated within the VOT itself implicitly. A reliable traffic system indicates that travelers can anticipate their travel times accurately before their trip, based on the experience gained from the past trips. In that sense, the measurement of reliability is how stable rather than severe the congestion is from day to day. Therefore, travel time variability can be used for evaluating the reliability of transportation systems. A high degree of variability indicates that the travel time would be unpredictable and the traffic service is less reliable (Turochy and Smith, 2002). From the traveler’s perspective, a decrease in travel time variability reduces the uncertainty in decision-making about departure time and route choice as well as the anxiety and stress caused by such uncertainty (Sun, et al. 2003). It may be computed separately and added to the total direct travel time loss (as in (2) or (3)) or may be included within the VOT, knowing the precise values of variability and travel time, if possible. For this study, 25% allowances of the total travel time delay costs are assumed (BTRC, 2007). Table I enlists all the data necessary for the computation of travel time costs.
BTRC (2007), has estimated that typically externality cost is 60-75% of the total delay cost with the average being 70%. The DWL is estimated to be around 50% of the total cost, typically ranging between about 30-55%. In this paper, these are estimated as being 70% and 50% respectively of the computed total TTC and are added with other costs to determine the total congestion cost from (l).
No. of vehicle (N) Occupancy (0)
Daily VKT (Km/day)
A vg Speed (kmIhr) Desirable Speed (km/hr) VOT (W.T. ) – *BDTlhr VOT (N.W.T.) – *BDTlhr
Note: first four types of vehicles such as Bus, Taxi-cab, Auto-rickshaw, Auto-Tempo and Private Passenger Car information is collected from BRTA, MCCI & CMILTA (2007) and Wadud & Khan (2 OIl) Last 4 vehicle’s information is inserted from assumption of the first four vehicle’s information. We assumed that micro-bus and Mini-bus is the substitute of Bus, Jeep is the substitute of Private Passenger Car and Motor Cycle is the special types of vehicle. By considering the other vehicle’s information, its information is considered.
Vehicle operating cost due to congestion consists of the cost of excess fuel burnt and the cost for the lubricants and additional maintenance for the vehicle. Fuel consumption rates vary depending on the type of vehicle (i.e. gasoline/diesel-powered automobile) and driving environment (i.e. urban versus freeway travel, un-congested versus congested travel). In Bangladesh, there are three types of fuels used for vehicle operation-diesel, gasoline (octane/petrol) and CNG (Compressed Natural Gas). In the current study, first the fuel consumption cost is made for three types of fuel for all vehicle types and then the excess fuel burnt cost is determined with respect to congested and uncongested travel condition.
Where, N is the number of vehicle, v of a specific fuel type f; A is the average run per day; FE and FC stand for the corresponding fuel efficiency and fuel cost.
Total cost with congestion: A local survey estimated that the average additional cost due to the congestion is about 40% of the cost incurred in the congestion [Ref.: MCCI (Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry) and CMILT (Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport), “Traffic Congestion in Dhaka City: Its Impact on Business and Some Remedial Measures”, July 2010.]. So, for a specific type of vehicle, Total fuel cost /day with congestion = 1.4 times the Total fuel Cost without congestion in (4) Therefore, Lost Fuel Cost per day = Total fuel cost /day with congestion – Total fuel cost /day without congestion Hence, Annual Lost Fuel
Vehicle Operating Cost: Estimating Vehicle Operating Cost is not calculated here. By using the equation (4) , Khan& Rashedul (2013) estimated that due to congestion in Dhaka city excess fuel cost is 178.55 million USD.
Road traffic accidents have now become a great social concern in Bangladesh and the situation is deteriorating. The safety problem is very severe in Bangladesh by international standards with some 45 fatalities per 10,000 motor vehicles in Bangladesh compared to 2.0 in the USA and 1.4 in the UK (Hoque et aI., 1997). Dhakatribune (source:http://www.dhakatribune.com/longform/20 14/feb/03/death-road) mentions that in addition to the tragic loss of life, there are also economic costs to these accidents. In Bangladesh, the annual economic cost of road traffic accidents is estimated to be around 2% of its Tk151bn ($1.95bn) GDP. This is almost equal to the total foreign aid received in a fiscal year. The losses include direct and indirect expenses, such as medical costs, insurance loss, property damage, family income losses and traffic congestion. A study by the police shows that the age group most vulnerable to road accidents, those between 21 to 35 years, comprises the core of the country’s workforce(DMP, 1996).
The statistics reveal that Bangladesh has one of the highest fatality rate in road accidents – higher than 85 deaths per ten thousand registered motor vehicles every year. whereas, in developed countries the number of motorized vehicles is many times more, the rate is below 5. A recent accident analysis shows that vulnerable road users are pedestrians, cyclist/motor cyclist and public vehicle passengers. Of the accident victims about 50% are pedestrians, one-third of the victims are adult males of age between 21-40 years, about 50 % accident occur on National and Regional Highways and 20% on city roads. Accident on national highways is more severe about 48% fatal and in city roads 14% accidents are fatal.
Human Capital Approach of Accident Costing: Cognizant of the magnitude of the ill effects of vast motorization, the United States with its National Highways Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the TRL pioneered in developing methodologies for costing accident. Since then, they have developed guidelines for use of developing countries after previous studies have noticed the vulnerability and greater effect of accidents on the poor. Their approach – the Human Capital Approach – has been adopted in this study.
Accident Cost Components: To simplify the process of identifying the sources costs, the Human Capital Approach, otherwise known as the Gross Output Method, classifies accident cost into three main components as shown in 1st Contd from page 42
column of table 3. Victim related costs are directly associated with the resources loss of the casualties. To be humane and considerate of the social impacts of accidents, a notional sum is also added to quantify the PGS (Pain, Grief, and Suffering) of the victim’s families. Property damage consists of vehicle repair, loss of the economic productivity of public utility vehicles and the cost of towing services. The first two components make the largest portion of property damage and are given due attention in this paper. The third and last component of accident cost consists of costs associated with police investigation, legal activities and insurance administration.
Lost Labor Output: Potentially productive years of life lost as a result of an accident are also considered. Lost output is typically the largest casualty related cost incurred. A study by the police shows that the age group most vulnerable to road accidents, those between 21 to 35 years, comprises the core of the country’s workforce (DMP, 1996) and from this report we can say that the average age of accident is 28 years. Using the compulsory retirement age of 59, we can deduct the average lost economic years of fatalities as 31 years.
The average income of people of Dhaka City is 1314 US dollars (According to Per-capita income of the people of Bangladesh in 2014).For fetal, the country has to loss complete output of that dead person which he would produce rest of the life. On the other hand, it can be assumed that the people are grievously injured, they will lose their 50% productivity of their rest of the lifetime and the people of the simple injured will lose their 10% productivity in their lifetime. For the simplicity, I have considered the per-capita GDP as the yearly income of the people of Dhaka who have faced the accident.
As lost of the labor output is equal to 14358735USD which is the 73.9% of the total accidental cost according to the study of Richmnd M. M. D., Primitivo C. C., Ricardo G. S., (2005), so we can calculate the total accidental cost and it will be 19696841.48 USD or 19.6968 million USD. In this way we can calculate the sub-sectoral loss due to accident.
8.Freight Traffic Cost: The excess cost of freight traffic is mainly due to the average waiting time that the freight has to face for traffic congestion during peak hours. For Dhaka city, this is not a prime source of congestion cost because the freight traffic is only allowed to enter the city during off-peak hours at night in order to avoid the congestion. Hence this is majorly related to policymaking of government and not related to congestion particularly for Dhaka city currently. For this reason this cost is not considered in this study though it is an considerable component of raffic consideration.
From equation (1) we getTCC= TTC+DWL+EC+VOC+RTAC, where, TCC = Traffic congestion cost, TTC = Travel time, cost, DWL = Dead-weight loss (Avoidable Social Cost), EC = Travel delay externality cost, VOC = Vehicle operating cost (excess fuel cost due to congestion), EC = Environmental externality cost (air/noise pollution), RATC= Road Traffic Accident Cost. In the above details study, the result of the component of the Total Traffic Cost in Dhaka city is inserted in table 7.
From the above estimation we see that total congestion cost for the Dhaka city is 12561.296 million USD. Considering the country’s total population, per capita congestion cost is 78.50 USD and if we consider only Dhaka City’s population, then per capita congestion cost stands 785.00 UD. From the Appendix A and B, we can see that this per capita congestion cost in Dhaka city is larger than most of the metropolitan city’s in the world.
As the resource is not unlimited, so strategy or recommendation should be the best alternative. Two major strategies have to be taken to reduce the traffic congestion in the Dhaka city. First is to arrest the inflow of people to the Dhaka city and second is to take measures to reduce the existing traffic congestion in Dhaka city.
The main causes of population concentration in Dhaka city are employment, health, education and official purpose. If people get employment, health and education facility in his own location, the movement of people towards Dhaka will reduce drastically. On the other hand due to the Supreme Court and centralization of governmental activities, many of the people have to come to the Dhaka city. To address the problem following recommendation can be taken into action.
11.1.1. Administrative Decentralization: According to the article No.1 of Bangladesh Constitution, Bangladesh is a unitary, independent, sovereign Republic to be known as the peoples’ of Bangladesh. The provisions of article 1 states that Bangladesh is a unitary, independent, sovereign republic, which has been recognized by the Supreme Judiciary as one of the basic features of the Constitution [Anwar Hossain Chowdhury & Others v Bangladesh, 41 DLR (AD) 165, paragraph 292]. According to the article 5. (1), The capital of the Republic is Dhaka. There is no provincial system. It speaks that the administration (all executive functions headed by Prime Ministers, supreme judiciary headed by the Chief Justice, and legislative functions headed by the Speaker) of the country are highly concentrated in Dhaka. According to the article 7B 1, there is no scope to change this provision. In such a situation, with the consultation of the Supreme Court, the government can establish circuit High Court Bench in the all divisional cities.
11.1.2. Work redistribution among Ministry, Department and Divisional other sub-ordinate offices: Ministry will work only in policy preparation and monitoring. At present, not only, policy preparation and monitoring but also the implementation, transfer, leaves, appointment, promotion, fund allocation and many other works are also done by the ministry. As a result, the ministry cannot give proper attention to the policy preparation. For this reason Officers are attracted in the ministry as they can enjoy both the policy preparation and execution of the policy.This is one ofthe main problem of the development of economy. On the other side, as most of the works are centralized in the Contd from page 44
ministry and DG offices, people has to come in the Dhaka city. For example, posting, leaves, etc. of the health, education and many other cadres may be distributed to the divisional authority.
11.1.3. Abolition of Vertical Local Government: Article 59 and 60 of the Bangladesh constitution has the provisions of the local government system. According to Article 59 (1), Local government in every administrative unit of the Republic shall be entrusted to bodies, composed of persons elected in accordance with law. There are four tire administrative units in Bangladesh, that is, ‘Divisional level, District level, Upazila level, the Union level. According the constitutional obligation, there should have four tire local governments. Beside this, City Corporation and Porosova are two types of horizontal urban local government. So many tire of local government system create complexity in administration as one local government has no power to control or supervise or regulate by other vertically lower local governments,because the local government bodies are statutory bodies.There should be urban and rural, that is,only two types of local governments or more than two types of horizontal local governments.But, there should not have any vertical local government like, union level, then upazila level, then district level and then divisional level. Government has to decide to retain anyone tier local government.
In the case of the Dhaka metropolitan city, all the area is also the administrative area of Dhaka district Parishad. The land administration is complete control of District Administration. City corporation and District Parishad are simultaneously responsible for the development activities. It creates a serious mismanagement.
On the other hand, as three tire local government is existing so, very few amount of resource is generated by the every tire local government, but they have to carry the around the same unnecessary administrative cost. There is no coordination, arrangement between the vertically existing local governments due to the obligation of law (As every local government is a statutory body).So, most of the time, development projects overlapped and create distortion and misuse of resource and the economy achieved sub-optimal output. For this reason, operationally growth centers are not developed in the center of the local government administrative unit. These local governments cannot create the center of economic activities of these administrative areas. As a result mega cities, especially Dhaka became as the more concentrated businesses, economic and central point of the economy and finally traffic capital in the world.
11.1.4. Creation of Metropolitan Government: The name of the present local government in Dhaka city is called city corporation local government. This city corporation has no control over the traffic control, law and order, electricity system, water and sanitation, telephone, transport, or any other activities which is related to road maintenance, use and development. Only for traffic management, there are many agencies named DSCC, DNCC, DTCA, DMP, RHD, WASA, PDB, WDB, Gas, T&T, BRTA and many other departments and who are responsible for the management of the traffic system of Dhaka city along with RAJUK. The Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority is formed to co-ordinate these authorities, but the authority is not empowered due to the various legal obligations. Police and especially traffic police are mostly responsible for the traffic control, but, there is no control of Dhaka City Corporation over the metropolitan police. So, without creation of metropolitan government, and complete control of the police department, traffic control will be very tough.
11.1.5. Empowering Local Government: Now the local government is empowered basically only to implement some development activities. They have no control over the law and order. In most of the developed country local government is empowered to appoint of police and to control of law and order. Many of the cases in Bangladesh, ethnic minorities felt insecure in the rural area to survive due to inadequate law and order situation. So, they become more comfortable to live in the mega cities. Including police, all the development departments should be completely controlled by the local government administration. As at the very early stage of local government, they cannot afford the salary and other administrative cost. Central government can provide a lump grant to bear this cost. But, in every local government, there should be a representative of central government with some judicial power, which will be the eye of the central government and will be the independent from the local government. He will observe and advise the Local government to follow the administrative and financial rule of the central government. These types of local government can create the growth center in the area of the local government by enhancing the economic activities which will reduce the pressure on the Dhaka city and will reduce the traffic congestion.
11.1.6. Introduction of Judicial system in the local government level: Under the existing local government system, there is no judicial If central government provides judicial officer under the judicial system in the every local government, it may not be economically viable. Under section 190 (l)(D) of the Cr. P. C., government can empower any executive magistrate to take the conigence of any offense. As every local government should have a representative of the central government, he may be empowered under section 190(1 )(D) of the Cr. P. C. It will enhance the empowerment of local government, will bring the judicial system in the near to the people, policing system will be empowered, increase the economic activities in the rural area, arrest the movement of the people to the mega-city, especially in the Dhaka city and finally will reduce the traffic congestion of Dhaka.
11.1.7 Introduction of E-governance: Government already started e-governance system. All meeting, sending letters, conference, and official services should be done electronically. It will reduce the movement of the people, reduce cost, would save time and will reduce the traffic congestion.
11.1.8 Adoption of Family Planning in the Urban Area: Still there is no family planning policy in the urban area: A total of 3.5 million people is living in 4,000 slums in the Dhaka metropolitan area(Source: http://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/20 13/02/24/3 .5-mn-people-live-in-dhaka-slums). Most of the slum dwellers are extremely poor, uneducated careless regarding the family size. As there is no family planning policy of these slam area, the growth rate of population is very high. It should be controlled very strongly by introducing family planning policy in the city slum area.
11.1.9 Ensuring Quality of Health and Education in District and Rural Area: Most of the cases, for quality, ensuring the health and quality education, people move to the mega city especially to the Dhaka. Considering this matter, central government has to take necessary measure for ensuring the quality health and quality education in the district or lower urban and rural level. It will reduce the flow of people to the mega city and simultaneously will playas a catalyst of economic development.
11.2 Second Strategy: Take measures to reduce the existing traffic congestion in Dhaka city
As huge number of people is already existing in Dhaka city, and lawfully it is not possible to push-out them from the city and most of them are already become the settlers of the Dhaka city, so the government should develop the proper infrastructure and appropriate strategy to reduce the existing traffic congestion.
11.2.1 Establishment of V-Loop system: Introduction of U-Ioop system at the every intersection point of the road will drastically reduce the traffic congestion. In this system, very small amount of cost will be involved. If the V-loop system is introduced, there is very limited scope to violate the traffic rule and traffic signal will not be required.
11.2.2 Promulgation of the Law: Introduction of the legal system is required in the following
area:
b. In the Dhaka city, minimum ground floor of the every building situated by the roadside has to keeps open for the parking. As this option is not implemented, it has to implement within the certain time period. Otherwise, there should be a system of rigorous penalty.
c. Though, there is law against illegal parking and business (hawker)on the roadsideor footpath, but due to imperfection measure (corruption, inadequate government personnel, influential person, and so on)of the trafficking system, it is not properly implemented. If we introduce a counter measure system that, in illegal parking and business (hawker) in the road will be reported to the ministry of communication (with video documentary) and they will report it to the ministry of home to take necessary action against the responsible traffic person. Either that, every citizen should have an option to report to the ministry of communication through the electronically (internet or any other way) to report against the illegal parking and business (hawker) on the roadside. The employment of human resource of the counter measure system must be done by outsourcing only for 15 days and after 15 days, they must be changed for free of corruption, neutrality and finally efficient outcome. The report of the communication ministry implemented by the ministry of home will be discussed in the standing committee of the communication ministry.
11.2.3 Introduction of Jobs-housing balance policy: Residential arrangement in the office area is known as the job-housing balancing policy. If government arranges 20 to 30 percent one-room residential arrangements in the office area, especially in the high-rise office building, it will reduce the movement of the employee and their residential problem and will reduce traffic congestion. If this one-room residential system becomes available, these employees will not shift their family in the Dhaka. There may be budget constrained for the central government for the high rise construction. Under the PPP program, for construction of the high rise office, government can provide land and construction company will construct the building and government will pay their costs in the long-run installment including profit.
11.2.4 Construction of flyover on the Railway level Crossing: Total no of level crossing is 29 within the Dhaka metropolitan area (Kabir, 2004). Daily more than 80 train passes in these crossing between 06 am to 11 pm excluding mail trains. On average in every 13 minutes single trains pass these crossings, which spoil more than 06 hours in the 24 hour day. There is no alternative to create a fly over at the intersection point of railway crossing though it is very costly.
11.2.5 No Further Educational institution in Dhaka City: No further public and private education institution should be established in the Dhaka city. By maintaining the adequate quality, post graduate level online education system may be introduced, certainly not the under-graduate level.
11.2.6 Introduction of Adequate Public Transport System: Due to lack of a comfortable, adequate number of public transport, most of the mid or just above the mid-level income group people are using private cars, which occupy the 78% road capacity but carrying only 5% trip. BRTA or under the PPP program, the government can introduce the comfortable public transport system. In the morning, heavy traffic is created by the movement of personal Contd from page 46
vehicle of student’s guardian to carry their child for more security and safety. If the school authority become to bind introduced a safe and secured transportation system, traffic congestion will be reduced as well as tension, time and financial cost of the guardians will also be reduced.
11.2.7 Imposing more cost on the private vehicle: Private vehicle operating cost may be increased by taxing policy like registration, fuel, insurance, and many other systems to reduce the number of private vehicle in the Dhaka city.
8.1.2.8 Irregular Loading in the Bus: Within the city, vehicles are loading/unloading passengers, goods etc. in any places; whereas they are supposed to do so only in the DNCC and DSCC specified stand.
11.2.9 Developing a bicycle network: Develop a region wide bicycle network, with specific focus on dense urban areas where bicycles can serve a large share of trips. It will reduce not only traffic but also carbon emission.
11.2.10 Car clubs or car sharing/pooling: Car clubs have begun to take off in the UK over the last few years, largely because of the added expense of running a car in the midst of a recession. Car clubs have been already popular in continental Europe before the recession and have proved to be popular for a range of reasons. For instance car clubs are environmentally more friendly than owning your own car and save a member a significant amount in comparison to the costs of running their own car.
11.2.11. Construction of Infrastructure: Elevated Expressway, metro rail, bypass road, underground footpath, foot over bridge, fly over and many other mega infrastructural facility certainly will reduce the traffic congestion, But, these involve a large amount of cost. There are a lot of mega projects government already initiated to reduce the traffic congestion which is not required to discuss here (See Appendix C).
Note: Article 7B: Basic provisions of the Constitution are not amendable: Notwithstanding anything contained in article 142 of the Constitution, the preamble, all articles of Part I, all articles of Part II, subject to the provisions of Part DCA all articles of Part Ill, and the provisions of articles relating to the basic structures of the Constitution including article 150 of Part XI shall not be amendable by way of insertion, modification, substitution, repeal or by any other means.
Dhaka is the heart of Bangladesh as it is the capital city as well as it plays all types of internal and external economic & business hub of the economy. If the heart is attacked or blocked, whole body will be collapsed. Free flow of transportation can be compared to the blood circulation of the human body where the capital city (like heart) is the main player. Bangladesh would enjoy the benefits of a huge economic boost by alleviating traffic congestion in the capital, which contributes to more than 35 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (MCCI & CILT, 2010). As Bangladesh is a unitary state due to the constitutional obligation, so, the severity of the economic problem is more compared to other non-unitary state like India, Pakistan, USA and many of the countries in the world. Michael Hobbes is a human rights consultant in Berlin mentions that Dhaka is the “Traffic Capital of the World” and from this comment, it can be evaluate how seriously the economy is affected. The Total GDP of Bangladesh (in current value) is 173.8189 Billion USD (WB Data-bank), Whereas according to this study, it is estimated that the total economic loss of the traffic congestion is 12.561 Billion USD, which is around 7%. Certainly, this amount of congestion cost for the lower-middle of Bangladesh is very much higher compared to any other country of the world. If, no traffic congestion in Dhaka city, then per-capita GDP would increase (12561.296 million USD 10ss/160 million population) 78.50 USD, that is our GDP would be (1314 USD+78.50 USD) 1392 USD. If we calculate this economic loss from 1971 then the GDP of Bangladesh might be more and more larger than the present amount. On the other hand, if this loss being continued, then the severity of economic loss will have been increasing exponentially and this may be one of the main hindrance for achieving the middle income country within the 2021 and subsequently, developed country within the 2041 as mentioned in the long-term perspective plan (2010 to 2021) and the economic goal of the present government.
Al-Mamun A., (2012). “Cost of Traffic Congestion in Dhaka City and its Implication in Business” held at the Institute of Engineers, Bangladesh (IEB). An Unpublished Article. The Financial Express, Sunday September 9, 2012
Bickel, P., Schmid, s., Krewitt, W, & Friedrich, R., Eds. (/997). “External Costs of Transport in Extern E, ” Final Report. IER, Stuttgart.
Boyce, C. (2009). “ATA President Discusses Dangers of Congestion Pricing and Privatization of Roadways, American Trucking Association “, available at www.trucking.org/article.aspx?uid=6dd5 9be6-cge8-49 20-a8fcf2736aa6bd4e.
Binnie Partners (/994). “Preparation of Structure plan, Master plan, and Detailed Area plan for Chittagong, Component 2C: present situation report, traffic and transportation in Chittagong”, Project BGD/88/052, UNDP/UNCHS (Habitat), Govt of Bangladesh.
Cambridge Systematics (2012). “Assessing The Economic Benefit Of Transportation Infrastructure Investment In A Mature Surface Transportation System, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Transportation Research Board”, at http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/docs/NCHRP 20-24(80) _FR.pdf
EDRG (2007). “The Cost of Highway Limitations and Traffic Delay to Oregon’s Economy, Oregon Business Council and Portland Business Alliance (www.orbusinesscouncil.org)”, available at www.portofport/and.com/PDFPOP/Trade Trans Studies Cost Hwy Lmtns.pdf
Disney s., &Naim M, Towill D., (/997). “Dynamic Simulation Modeling for Lean Logistics “, International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management), 20 3-4 194 196
Fernie J, & Regan F, A., (2000). “Retail Grocery Logistics in the UK”, International Journal of Logistics Management, 1128395
Fioravante, E. F., & FEgoli, M G. B. (2009). “Environmental impact due to automobile use.” XXVI IUSSP International Population Conference, Morocco.
Geunes J Konur D., (2009). “A Competitive Facility Location Game with Traffic Congestion Costs, University of Florida”, Center for Multimodal Solutions for Congestion Contd from page 47
It is clear that increasing traffic congestion does impose costs upon not only travelers but also on the whole economic activities and finally affect national income. It has been difficult to develop and apply empirical measures of the extent of those economic costs. This paper describes a modeling approach to estimate economic cost and how Dhaka city traffic congestion affects GDP. A number of studies on congestion have been carried out for Dhaka. But there is little study, especially on the economic impact of congestion in Dhaka city. Most of the study has been conducted only to estimate the congestion cost. The effect of different types of vehicle on congestion has been captured on the basis of marginal congestion by Maitra et al. (2004). Using congestion models, the marginal congestions have been estimated for different road widths, traffic compositions and on-street parking levels. Among the large various types of congestion related study few of them are discussed below.
Mohammad R. A., Bhuiyan A. R. and Sultana S. (2013) attempts to explore the hidden causes of traffic congestion of Dhaka city as well as to shed light its overall consequences. This study is based on the survey of 400 people who were directly associated with this problem. The researchers have also drawn information from the existing literature and various reports of the Government of Bangladesh to clarify the different causes of traffic congestion and its overall effects. The major finding of the study is that there are several factors liable for traffic congestion of Dhaka city and it has adverse effects on the different socio- economic aspects, but he did not measure the overall traffic congestion cost and its economic cost. Singh & Sarkar, (2009) made an attempt to determine congestion pricing in central area of Delhi that is Connaught Place with a view to ensuring desired level of service. Two methods for the determination of optimal pricing were adopted. The first method was related to the point of pricing where the external costs were met by the revenue generated by the pricing level while the second method was the Pricing level needed to maintain a level of service. By using these methods, pricing for car and two-wheeler motorized vehicles had been determined. Varmora and Gundaliya (2013) in their study in the city of Ahmadabad have shown that due to change in carriageway width and vehicle composition, the traffic stream speed and flow also encounter more congestion level along the length of link.
Rao & Rao, (2012) discuss a novel and interesting way to detect the congestion on the urban arterials in India. They suggest using a Wi-Fi signal emitting device and a receiver across the road to identify the congestion. This method was found to be successful in terms of high accuracy of classifying the road as congested or free flowing.Sen et al. (2009) discussed the characteristics of the ITS techniques that need to be developed to cater the traffic conditions and congestion in developing regions and presented a brief description of a few efforts being made in this direction (Rao & Rao, 2012).Shuichi and Hironao (2003) have shown in their study that by improving traffic signaling strategies can improve the traffic situation of the street cars. According to them, their proposed signaling strategy improves the traffic situation of the street cars. Same signaling system can be implemented in Dhaka City to improve our traffic system.
Litman, T. (2015) studied how traffic congestion can significantly affect transport planning decisions. This report describes various factors that affect congestion cost estimates and the evaluation of potential congestion reduction strategies, including analysis scope, baseline speeds, travel time valuation, accident and emission impact analysis, induced travel analysis, and consideration of co-benefits. It discusses how these factors influence planning decisions, and describes best practices recommended by experts. It applies these methods to evaluate various congestion reduction strategies including roadway expansion, improve space efficient modes, pricing reforms, smart growth policies and demand management programs. Fioravante et. ai, (2009) studied in Brazil on environmental impact due to automobiles. Due to demographic changes that have been occurred, the article projects the number and composition of households of Belo Horizonte (Brazil) by household size and marital status and age of reference person, using a multidimensional model developed by Yi (1991) that considers the interdependence between demographic events. However the ambient impact did not occur with the same intensity, because some old vehicles were substituted by new ones that have lower emission of pollutants. Karim (1997) found that limited resources, invested for the development of transport facilities, such as infrastructure and vehicles, coupled with the rapid rise in transport demand, existence of a huge number of non-motorized vehicles on roads, lack of application of adequate and proper traffic management schemes are producing severe transport problems in almost all the urban areas of Bangladesh. Worsening situation of traffic congestion in the streets and sufferings of the inhabitants from vehicle emissions demanded extensive research in this field.
Background of the study
I am in a tiny steel cage attached to a motorcycle, stuttering through traffic in Dhaka, Bangladesh. In the last ten minutes, we have moved forward, maybe three feet, inch by inch, the driver twisting the wheel left and right, wriggling deeper into the block between a delivery truck and a rickshaw in front of us. Up ahead, the traffic is jammed so close together that pedestrians are climbing over pickup trucks and through empty rickshaws to cross the street. Two rows to my left is an ambulance, blue light spinning uselessly. The driver is’ on the road, smoking a cigarette, standing on his tiptoes, looking ahead to where the traffic clears. Every once in a while he reaches into the open door to blow his horn.
Dhaka has the distinct importance in the national and regional urban hierarchy. Administrative functions and all other functions are over concentrated in this capital city. The Dhaka city’s traffic system is considered to be one of the most chaotic ones in the world. The residents are compelled to undergo physical stress and suffer financial losses in terms of man-hours lost on working days. The media, both print and electronic, have been constantly highlighting the sufferings of the commuters in Dhaka city because of the troublesome traffic problem. Though the Government is trying his best, but yet the city did not achieve any sustainable permanent solution. Director General of Bangladesh Railway (BR) Abu Taher said the government has taken a plan to bring dynamic changes in public transportation by setting a very planned and modem railway network. He said that the traffic congestion could be removed from the capital significantly by appropriating the metro rail network and running commuter trains after converting the Tongi- Dhaka route into three lanes and Dhaka-Narayanganj route into two lanes (The Financial Express, September 9, 2012). Various attempts were taken by the governments, including a special meeting with the agencies concerned to devise means to help reduce the intensity of traffic problem in Dhaka city. Some tangible improvements have been achieved, but still far from the targets.
In Dhaka city, every day 21 million trips generated. Out of this huge trips, about total only 5% are carried out by private cars, which however use roughly 80% of the road space and are the main cause of traffic congestion. Yet 28% of the total trips are carried out by buses which only use about 5 % of the road space. What’s more, 58% of the total trips are made by walking, bicycling, or riding on rickshaws, also called non-motorized transport modes (NMT). But these NMT modes barely get proper allocation of road space. There are no dedicated bicycle or rickshaw lane on any roads in Dhaka and less than 25% of roads have separated, paved sidewalks, most of which are either occupied by parked cars or damaged without proper maintenance. NMT users literally have to fight with vehicles for their right of way on roads and thus expose their lives to huge risks. Public transport and non-motorized transport meet mobility needs of 86% of the people in the city while only consuming a small portion of the road space and urban land (World BanK). DITS (1993) study in metropolitan Dhaka revealed that the mode of walking and rickshaware dominated of all trips. Over 60 per cent of trips involved walking alone. Of the remaining trips, some 11 per cent included a significant walking component. Some 40 per cent or more of non-walk trips involved the use of pedal rickshaws. Only about 10 per cent of trips involved motorized public transport services.
Combating Dhaka’s traffic congestion requires short-term and long-term measures. Transportation engineers and urban sociologists must grip, together, why people so compulsively rely on personal cars and what it would take to influence them to use public transport (provided ·there is one that is safe, efficient, and user-friendly). A comprehensive solution involves both
infrastructure planning and passive measures such as educating urban-dwellers about the benefits of using public transport, walking, and exercising civic responsibilities. Planning policies become viable only when they foster a culture of urban ethics. Many authors argue that “underdevelopment is a state of mind,” meaning that progress-resistant cultural habits cause the problems we are in, including traffic congestion. We want mobility without exercising our share of urban responsibilities.
MCCI & CMILT (2010) revealed that traffic jam was liable for the loss of people’s 8.15 million working hours, 40 per cent of which are business hours. The aforesaid money is lost due to 3.2 million business hours wasted in congestion. Again, from another study of Dhaka ransport Coordination Board (DTCB), it has been found that against the speed capacity of 40 kilometers per hour (kph), motorized vehicles can run in the city on a speed of average 15 kph. In reality, the speed is much less now. In fact, the quality of life and mental as well as physical stress remain uncountable which means the loss is much more than the calculated amount. Apart from the mentioned losses, motorists are burning extra liters of fuel or extra cubic metres of compressed natural gas as they crawl along in stop-start traffic on the obstructed roads. “Cars use four times more fuel on congested roads than when traffic is flowing at a normal speed. When a car is at a standstill, stopping and starting or moving slowly in heavy traffic, it uses 24.4 litres of fuel for every 100km driven. If the same car moves in free-flowing traffic, traveling at 50km/h or more, the fuel consumption drops to 6.4litres per 100km” (Financial Express, August 4th, 2011).
Considering the above discussed matter, this paper aims to explore the causes of traffic congestion in Dhaka city, to estimate the cost of traffic congestion and finally to measure the ecopomic impact of traffic congestion.
Objectives of the study
The main objective of the study is to estimate the impacts of traffic congestion in Dhaka city which embedded in the name of the article. The specific objectives of the study are:
a. To Estimate the total traffic congestion cost of Dhaka city with the available data
b. To analyze the Impact of traffic congestion
c. Recommendation for reducing traffic congestion in Dhaka city
Methodology of and data
This is actually a deterministic model to calculate the economic’ cost of traffic congestion of any city of locality. To develop this model, existing modelslliterature have been surveyed and the elements of these model were considered. The secondary data were collected through content analysis from various published sources, including books, online journals, newspapers, magazines, government! non-government organizations like BR T A and ARI, Contd from page 41
previous works on the related issue and reports. The publication manual of AP A (American Psychological Association, 2001) was used for citation of the sources of references that have been used in the study.
Limitation of the Study
To calculate the cost of TCC (Traffic congestion cost) the component TTC (Travel time cost), DWL (Dead-weight loss or Avoidable Social Cost), EC (Travel delay externality cost), VOC (Vehicle operating cost or excess fuel cost due to congestion), EC (Environmental externality cost such as, air/noise pollution), RATC (Road Traffic Accident-Cost) are considered. But due to lack of time & data availability, we cannot calculate VOC (Vehicle operating cost or excess fuel cost) and its value were hired from the study of Khan & Rashidul (2013). On the other hand, there are a very few study that measured the RA TC (Road Traffic Accident Cost). There are 10(ten) sub-component of RTAC. Among the ten components, only one component, that is, Lost
Where, TIC = Travel time cost per vehicle-person per day, t = % Trips, TT = Travel Time, i = vehicle type, j = trip purpose (i.e. work trip, W.T. or non-work trip, N.W.T), k = Time factor (peak or off-peak hour) and m = allowance for short distance and/or less-time sensitive trips (L.T.S) VOT = Value of Time (varying according to travel condition, travel time, mode choice, travel purpose etc) TTV = Travel Time Variability Due to lack of specific detail data on different factors, i.e. the portion of trips in a particular mode for different trip purposes and for different travel times (peak/off-peak hours), the formula stated in (2) is modified according to the currently available data and shown in (3) below. But with specific necessary data, travel time cost can be computed from (2). Therefore, the modified model for estimating traffic congestion cost is:
Where, W.T. is the working trips (assumed to occur during peaks only) and N.W.T. is the nonworking trips with different values of time (VOT) for a particular vehicle type i; TT is the travel time for mode i determined from average vehicular kilometers travelled VKT (Km/day) and average speed. Speed is varied according to travel time condition (peaks/off-peaks). For a certain time condition (peak/off-peak), TTi (hr) = Average VKTi / Average speed; Oi is the passenger occupancy of the vehicle i and Ni is the number of vehicle i.
The major assumptions made for the estimation procedure of and relevant to the TTC are below: 1. All commuter or work trips are assumed to occur at the peak hours only and similarly all nonwork trips are assumed to occur at the off-peak hours only. 2. Average speed corresponding to economically efficient volume (discussed later) of traffic is assumed to be equal to 30 km/hr for all the vehicles and for buses 25 km/hr ( MCCI & CMILT 2010). 3. Working and non-working trips are assumed to have a 50-50% split. 4. TTV, DWL, RTAC, FTC and delay externality costs are estimated approximately from previous observations, not using theoretical approach
The VOT (Value oftime) values for Dhaka city from willingness-to-pay survey regarding traffic congestion are collected from (MCCI and CMILT, 2010). After reviewing the literature, 1.5 times greater VOT is adopted for the peak hour than that for the off-peak hour or N.W.T. trips.
About TTV losses, it may sometimes be incorporated within the VOT itself implicitly. A reliable traffic system indicates that travelers can anticipate their travel times accurately before their trip, based on the experience gained from the past trips. In that sense, the measurement of reliability is how stable rather than severe the congestion is from day to day. Therefore, travel time variability can be used for evaluating the reliability of transportation systems. A high degree of variability indicates that the travel time would be unpredictable and the traffic service is less reliable (Turochy and Smith, 2002). From the traveler’s perspective, a decrease in travel time variability reduces the uncertainty in decision-making about departure time and route choice as well as the anxiety and stress caused by such uncertainty (Sun, et al. 2003). It may be computed separately and added to the total direct travel time loss (as in (2) or (3)) or may be included within the VOT, knowing the precise values of variability and travel time, if possible. For this study, 25% allowances of the total travel time delay costs are assumed (BTRC, 2007). Table I enlists all the data necessary for the computation of travel time costs.
BTRC (2007), has estimated that typically externality cost is 60-75% of the total delay cost with the average being 70%. The DWL is estimated to be around 50% of the total cost, typically ranging between about 30-55%. In this paper, these are estimated as being 70% and 50% respectively of the computed total TTC and are added with other costs to determine the total congestion cost from (l).
No. of vehicle (N) Occupancy (0)
Daily VKT (Km/day)
A vg Speed (kmIhr) Desirable Speed (km/hr) VOT (W.T. ) – *BDTlhr VOT (N.W.T.) – *BDTlhr
Note: first four types of vehicles such as Bus, Taxi-cab, Auto-rickshaw, Auto-Tempo and Private Passenger Car information is collected from BRTA, MCCI & CMILTA (2007) and Wadud & Khan (2 OIl) Last 4 vehicle’s information is inserted from assumption of the first four vehicle’s information. We assumed that micro-bus and Mini-bus is the substitute of Bus, Jeep is the substitute of Private Passenger Car and Motor Cycle is the special types of vehicle. By considering the other vehicle’s information, its information is considered.
Vehicle operating cost due to congestion consists of the cost of excess fuel burnt and the cost for the lubricants and additional maintenance for the vehicle. Fuel consumption rates vary depending on the type of vehicle (i.e. gasoline/diesel-powered automobile) and driving environment (i.e. urban versus freeway travel, un-congested versus congested travel). In Bangladesh, there are three types of fuels used for vehicle operation-diesel, gasoline (octane/petrol) and CNG (Compressed Natural Gas). In the current study, first the fuel consumption cost is made for three types of fuel for all vehicle types and then the excess fuel burnt cost is determined with respect to congested and uncongested travel condition.
Where, N is the number of vehicle, v of a specific fuel type f; A is the average run per day; FE and FC stand for the corresponding fuel efficiency and fuel cost.
Total cost with congestion: A local survey estimated that the average additional cost due to the congestion is about 40% of the cost incurred in the congestion [Ref.: MCCI (Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry) and CMILT (Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport), “Traffic Congestion in Dhaka City: Its Impact on Business and Some Remedial Measures”, July 2010.]. So, for a specific type of vehicle, Total fuel cost /day with congestion = 1.4 times the Total fuel Cost without congestion in (4) Therefore, Lost Fuel Cost per day = Total fuel cost /day with congestion – Total fuel cost /day without congestion Hence, Annual Lost Fuel
Vehicle Operating Cost: Estimating Vehicle Operating Cost is not calculated here. By using the equation (4) , Khan& Rashedul (2013) estimated that due to congestion in Dhaka city excess fuel cost is 178.55 million USD.
Road traffic accidents have now become a great social concern in Bangladesh and the situation is deteriorating. The safety problem is very severe in Bangladesh by international standards with some 45 fatalities per 10,000 motor vehicles in Bangladesh compared to 2.0 in the USA and 1.4 in the UK (Hoque et aI., 1997). Dhakatribune (source:http://www.dhakatribune.com/longform/20 14/feb/03/death-road) mentions that in addition to the tragic loss of life, there are also economic costs to these accidents. In Bangladesh, the annual economic cost of road traffic accidents is estimated to be around 2% of its Tk151bn ($1.95bn) GDP. This is almost equal to the total foreign aid received in a fiscal year. The losses include direct and indirect expenses, such as medical costs, insurance loss, property damage, family income losses and traffic congestion. A study by the police shows that the age group most vulnerable to road accidents, those between 21 to 35 years, comprises the core of the country’s workforce(DMP, 1996).
The statistics reveal that Bangladesh has one of the highest fatality rate in road accidents – higher than 85 deaths per ten thousand registered motor vehicles every year. whereas, in developed countries the number of motorized vehicles is many times more, the rate is below 5. A recent accident analysis shows that vulnerable road users are pedestrians, cyclist/motor cyclist and public vehicle passengers. Of the accident victims about 50% are pedestrians, one-third of the victims are adult males of age between 21-40 years, about 50 % accident occur on National and Regional Highways and 20% on city roads. Accident on national highways is more severe about 48% fatal and in city roads 14% accidents are fatal.
Human Capital Approach of Accident Costing: Cognizant of the magnitude of the ill effects of vast motorization, the United States with its National Highways Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the TRL pioneered in developing methodologies for costing accident. Since then, they have developed guidelines for use of developing countries after previous studies have noticed the vulnerability and greater effect of accidents on the poor. Their approach – the Human Capital Approach – has been adopted in this study.
Accident Cost Components: To simplify the process of identifying the sources costs, the Human Capital Approach, otherwise known as the Gross Output Method, classifies accident cost into three main components as shown in 1st Contd from page 42
column of table 3. Victim related costs are directly associated with the resources loss of the casualties. To be humane and considerate of the social impacts of accidents, a notional sum is also added to quantify the PGS (Pain, Grief, and Suffering) of the victim’s families. Property damage consists of vehicle repair, loss of the economic productivity of public utility vehicles and the cost of towing services. The first two components make the largest portion of property damage and are given due attention in this paper. The third and last component of accident cost consists of costs associated with police investigation, legal activities and insurance administration.
Lost Labor Output: Potentially productive years of life lost as a result of an accident are also considered. Lost output is typically the largest casualty related cost incurred. A study by the police shows that the age group most vulnerable to road accidents, those between 21 to 35 years, comprises the core of the country’s workforce (DMP, 1996) and from this report we can say that the average age of accident is 28 years. Using the compulsory retirement age of 59, we can deduct the average lost economic years of fatalities as 31 years.
The average income of people of Dhaka City is 1314 US dollars (According to Per-capita income of the people of Bangladesh in 2014).For fetal, the country has to loss complete output of that dead person which he would produce rest of the life. On the other hand, it can be assumed that the people are grievously injured, they will lose their 50% productivity of their rest of the lifetime and the people of the simple injured will lose their 10% productivity in their lifetime. For the simplicity, I have considered the per-capita GDP as the yearly income of the people of Dhaka who have faced the accident.
As lost of the labor output is equal to 14358735USD which is the 73.9% of the total accidental cost according to the study of Richmnd M. M. D., Primitivo C. C., Ricardo G. S., (2005), so we can calculate the total accidental cost and it will be 19696841.48 USD or 19.6968 million USD. In this way we can calculate the sub-sectoral loss due to accident.
8.Freight Traffic Cost: The excess cost of freight traffic is mainly due to the average waiting time that the freight has to face for traffic congestion during peak hours. For Dhaka city, this is not a prime source of congestion cost because the freight traffic is only allowed to enter the city during off-peak hours at night in order to avoid the congestion. Hence this is majorly related to policymaking of government and not related to congestion particularly for Dhaka city currently. For this reason this cost is not considered in this study though it is an considerable component of raffic consideration.
From equation (1) we getTCC= TTC+DWL+EC+VOC+RTAC, where, TCC = Traffic congestion cost, TTC = Travel time, cost, DWL = Dead-weight loss (Avoidable Social Cost), EC = Travel delay externality cost, VOC = Vehicle operating cost (excess fuel cost due to congestion), EC = Environmental externality cost (air/noise pollution), RATC= Road Traffic Accident Cost. In the above details study, the result of the component of the Total Traffic Cost in Dhaka city is inserted in table 7.
From the above estimation we see that total congestion cost for the Dhaka city is 12561.296 million USD. Considering the country’s total population, per capita congestion cost is 78.50 USD and if we consider only Dhaka City’s population, then per capita congestion cost stands 785.00 UD. From the Appendix A and B, we can see that this per capita congestion cost in Dhaka city is larger than most of the metropolitan city’s in the world.
As the resource is not unlimited, so strategy or recommendation should be the best alternative. Two major strategies have to be taken to reduce the traffic congestion in the Dhaka city. First is to arrest the inflow of people to the Dhaka city and second is to take measures to reduce the existing traffic congestion in Dhaka city.
The main causes of population concentration in Dhaka city are employment, health, education and official purpose. If people get employment, health and education facility in his own location, the movement of people towards Dhaka will reduce drastically. On the other hand due to the Supreme Court and centralization of governmental activities, many of the people have to come to the Dhaka city. To address the problem following recommendation can be taken into action.
11.1.1. Administrative Decentralization: According to the article No.1 of Bangladesh Constitution, Bangladesh is a unitary, independent, sovereign Republic to be known as the peoples’ of Bangladesh. The provisions of article 1 states that Bangladesh is a unitary, independent, sovereign republic, which has been recognized by the Supreme Judiciary as one of the basic features of the Constitution [Anwar Hossain Chowdhury & Others v Bangladesh, 41 DLR (AD) 165, paragraph 292]. According to the article 5. (1), The capital of the Republic is Dhaka. There is no provincial system. It speaks that the administration (all executive functions headed by Prime Ministers, supreme judiciary headed by the Chief Justice, and legislative functions headed by the Speaker) of the country are highly concentrated in Dhaka. According to the article 7B 1, there is no scope to change this provision. In such a situation, with the consultation of the Supreme Court, the government can establish circuit High Court Bench in the all divisional cities.
11.1.2. Work redistribution among Ministry, Department and Divisional other sub-ordinate offices: Ministry will work only in policy preparation and monitoring. At present, not only, policy preparation and monitoring but also the implementation, transfer, leaves, appointment, promotion, fund allocation and many other works are also done by the ministry. As a result, the ministry cannot give proper attention to the policy preparation. For this reason Officers are attracted in the ministry as they can enjoy both the policy preparation and execution of the policy.This is one ofthe main problem of the development of economy. On the other side, as most of the works are centralized in the Contd from page 44
ministry and DG offices, people has to come in the Dhaka city. For example, posting, leaves, etc. of the health, education and many other cadres may be distributed to the divisional authority.
11.1.3. Abolition of Vertical Local Government: Article 59 and 60 of the Bangladesh constitution has the provisions of the local government system. According to Article 59 (1), Local government in every administrative unit of the Republic shall be entrusted to bodies, composed of persons elected in accordance with law. There are four tire administrative units in Bangladesh, that is, ‘Divisional level, District level, Upazila level, the Union level. According the constitutional obligation, there should have four tire local governments. Beside this, City Corporation and Porosova are two types of horizontal urban local government. So many tire of local government system create complexity in administration as one local government has no power to control or supervise or regulate by other vertically lower local governments,because the local government bodies are statutory bodies.There should be urban and rural, that is,only two types of local governments or more than two types of horizontal local governments.But, there should not have any vertical local government like, union level, then upazila level, then district level and then divisional level. Government has to decide to retain anyone tier local government.
In the case of the Dhaka metropolitan city, all the area is also the administrative area of Dhaka district Parishad. The land administration is complete control of District Administration. City corporation and District Parishad are simultaneously responsible for the development activities. It creates a serious mismanagement.
On the other hand, as three tire local government is existing so, very few amount of resource is generated by the every tire local government, but they have to carry the around the same unnecessary administrative cost. There is no coordination, arrangement between the vertically existing local governments due to the obligation of law (As every local government is a statutory body).So, most of the time, development projects overlapped and create distortion and misuse of resource and the economy achieved sub-optimal output. For this reason, operationally growth centers are not developed in the center of the local government administrative unit. These local governments cannot create the center of economic activities of these administrative areas. As a result mega cities, especially Dhaka became as the more concentrated businesses, economic and central point of the economy and finally traffic capital in the world.
11.1.4. Creation of Metropolitan Government: The name of the present local government in Dhaka city is called city corporation local government. This city corporation has no control over the traffic control, law and order, electricity system, water and sanitation, telephone, transport, or any other activities which is related to road maintenance, use and development. Only for traffic management, there are many agencies named DSCC, DNCC, DTCA, DMP, RHD, WASA, PDB, WDB, Gas, T&T, BRTA and many other departments and who are responsible for the management of the traffic system of Dhaka city along with RAJUK. The Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority is formed to co-ordinate these authorities, but the authority is not empowered due to the various legal obligations. Police and especially traffic police are mostly responsible for the traffic control, but, there is no control of Dhaka City Corporation over the metropolitan police. So, without creation of metropolitan government, and complete control of the police department, traffic control will be very tough.
11.1.5. Empowering Local Government: Now the local government is empowered basically only to implement some development activities. They have no control over the law and order. In most of the developed country local government is empowered to appoint of police and to control of law and order. Many of the cases in Bangladesh, ethnic minorities felt insecure in the rural area to survive due to inadequate law and order situation. So, they become more comfortable to live in the mega cities. Including police, all the development departments should be completely controlled by the local government administration. As at the very early stage of local government, they cannot afford the salary and other administrative cost. Central government can provide a lump grant to bear this cost. But, in every local government, there should be a representative of central government with some judicial power, which will be the eye of the central government and will be the independent from the local government. He will observe and advise the Local government to follow the administrative and financial rule of the central government. These types of local government can create the growth center in the area of the local government by enhancing the economic activities which will reduce the pressure on the Dhaka city and will reduce the traffic congestion.
11.1.6. Introduction of Judicial system in the local government level: Under the existing local government system, there is no judicial If central government provides judicial officer under the judicial system in the every local government, it may not be economically viable. Under section 190 (l)(D) of the Cr. P. C., government can empower any executive magistrate to take the conigence of any offense. As every local government should have a representative of the central government, he may be empowered under section 190(1 )(D) of the Cr. P. C. It will enhance the empowerment of local government, will bring the judicial system in the near to the people, policing system will be empowered, increase the economic activities in the rural area, arrest the movement of the people to the mega-city, especially in the Dhaka city and finally will reduce the traffic congestion of Dhaka.
11.1.7 Introduction of E-governance: Government already started e-governance system. All meeting, sending letters, conference, and official services should be done electronically. It will reduce the movement of the people, reduce cost, would save time and will reduce the traffic congestion.
11.1.8 Adoption of Family Planning in the Urban Area: Still there is no family planning policy in the urban area: A total of 3.5 million people is living in 4,000 slums in the Dhaka metropolitan area(Source: http://bdnews24.com/bangladesh/20 13/02/24/3 .5-mn-people-live-in-dhaka-slums). Most of the slum dwellers are extremely poor, uneducated careless regarding the family size. As there is no family planning policy of these slam area, the growth rate of population is very high. It should be controlled very strongly by introducing family planning policy in the city slum area.
11.1.9 Ensuring Quality of Health and Education in District and Rural Area: Most of the cases, for quality, ensuring the health and quality education, people move to the mega city especially to the Dhaka. Considering this matter, central government has to take necessary measure for ensuring the quality health and quality education in the district or lower urban and rural level. It will reduce the flow of people to the mega city and simultaneously will playas a catalyst of economic development.
11.2 Second Strategy: Take measures to reduce the existing traffic congestion in Dhaka city
As huge number of people is already existing in Dhaka city, and lawfully it is not possible to push-out them from the city and most of them are already become the settlers of the Dhaka city, so the government should develop the proper infrastructure and appropriate strategy to reduce the existing traffic congestion.
11.2.1 Establishment of V-Loop system: Introduction of U-Ioop system at the every intersection point of the road will drastically reduce the traffic congestion. In this system, very small amount of cost will be involved. If the V-loop system is introduced, there is very limited scope to violate the traffic rule and traffic signal will not be required.
11.2.2 Promulgation of the Law: Introduction of the legal system is required in the following
area:
b. In the Dhaka city, minimum ground floor of the every building situated by the roadside has to keeps open for the parking. As this option is not implemented, it has to implement within the certain time period. Otherwise, there should be a system of rigorous penalty.
c. Though, there is law against illegal parking and business (hawker)on the roadsideor footpath, but due to imperfection measure (corruption, inadequate government personnel, influential person, and so on)of the trafficking system, it is not properly implemented. If we introduce a counter measure system that, in illegal parking and business (hawker) in the road will be reported to the ministry of communication (with video documentary) and they will report it to the ministry of home to take necessary action against the responsible traffic person. Either that, every citizen should have an option to report to the ministry of communication through the electronically (internet or any other way) to report against the illegal parking and business (hawker) on the roadside. The employment of human resource of the counter measure system must be done by outsourcing only for 15 days and after 15 days, they must be changed for free of corruption, neutrality and finally efficient outcome. The report of the communication ministry implemented by the ministry of home will be discussed in the standing committee of the communication ministry.
11.2.3 Introduction of Jobs-housing balance policy: Residential arrangement in the office area is known as the job-housing balancing policy. If government arranges 20 to 30 percent one-room residential arrangements in the office area, especially in the high-rise office building, it will reduce the movement of the employee and their residential problem and will reduce traffic congestion. If this one-room residential system becomes available, these employees will not shift their family in the Dhaka. There may be budget constrained for the central government for the high rise construction. Under the PPP program, for construction of the high rise office, government can provide land and construction company will construct the building and government will pay their costs in the long-run installment including profit.
11.2.4 Construction of flyover on the Railway level Crossing: Total no of level crossing is 29 within the Dhaka metropolitan area (Kabir, 2004). Daily more than 80 train passes in these crossing between 06 am to 11 pm excluding mail trains. On average in every 13 minutes single trains pass these crossings, which spoil more than 06 hours in the 24 hour day. There is no alternative to create a fly over at the intersection point of railway crossing though it is very costly.
11.2.5 No Further Educational institution in Dhaka City: No further public and private education institution should be established in the Dhaka city. By maintaining the adequate quality, post graduate level online education system may be introduced, certainly not the under-graduate level.
11.2.6 Introduction of Adequate Public Transport System: Due to lack of a comfortable, adequate number of public transport, most of the mid or just above the mid-level income group people are using private cars, which occupy the 78% road capacity but carrying only 5% trip. BRTA or under the PPP program, the government can introduce the comfortable public transport system. In the morning, heavy traffic is created by the movement of personal Contd from page 46
vehicle of student’s guardian to carry their child for more security and safety. If the school authority become to bind introduced a safe and secured transportation system, traffic congestion will be reduced as well as tension, time and financial cost of the guardians will also be reduced.
11.2.7 Imposing more cost on the private vehicle: Private vehicle operating cost may be increased by taxing policy like registration, fuel, insurance, and many other systems to reduce the number of private vehicle in the Dhaka city.
8.1.2.8 Irregular Loading in the Bus: Within the city, vehicles are loading/unloading passengers, goods etc. in any places; whereas they are supposed to do so only in the DNCC and DSCC specified stand.
11.2.9 Developing a bicycle network: Develop a region wide bicycle network, with specific focus on dense urban areas where bicycles can serve a large share of trips. It will reduce not only traffic but also carbon emission.
11.2.10 Car clubs or car sharing/pooling: Car clubs have begun to take off in the UK over the last few years, largely because of the added expense of running a car in the midst of a recession. Car clubs have been already popular in continental Europe before the recession and have proved to be popular for a range of reasons. For instance car clubs are environmentally more friendly than owning your own car and save a member a significant amount in comparison to the costs of running their own car.
11.2.11. Construction of Infrastructure: Elevated Expressway, metro rail, bypass road, underground footpath, foot over bridge, fly over and many other mega infrastructural facility certainly will reduce the traffic congestion, But, these involve a large amount of cost. There are a lot of mega projects government already initiated to reduce the traffic congestion which is not required to discuss here (See Appendix C).
Note: Article 7B: Basic provisions of the Constitution are not amendable: Notwithstanding anything contained in article 142 of the Constitution, the preamble, all articles of Part I, all articles of Part II, subject to the provisions of Part DCA all articles of Part Ill, and the provisions of articles relating to the basic structures of the Constitution including article 150 of Part XI shall not be amendable by way of insertion, modification, substitution, repeal or by any other means.
Dhaka is the heart of Bangladesh as it is the capital city as well as it plays all types of internal and external economic & business hub of the economy. If the heart is attacked or blocked, whole body will be collapsed. Free flow of transportation can be compared to the blood circulation of the human body where the capital city (like heart) is the main player. Bangladesh would enjoy the benefits of a huge economic boost by alleviating traffic congestion in the capital, which contributes to more than 35 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (MCCI & CILT, 2010). As Bangladesh is a unitary state due to the constitutional obligation, so, the severity of the economic problem is more compared to other non-unitary state like India, Pakistan, USA and many of the countries in the world. Michael Hobbes is a human rights consultant in Berlin mentions that Dhaka is the “Traffic Capital of the World” and from this comment, it can be evaluate how seriously the economy is affected. The Total GDP of Bangladesh (in current value) is 173.8189 Billion USD (WB Data-bank), Whereas according to this study, it is estimated that the total economic loss of the traffic congestion is 12.561 Billion USD, which is around 7%. Certainly, this amount of congestion cost for the lower-middle of Bangladesh is very much higher compared to any other country of the world. If, no traffic congestion in Dhaka city, then per-capita GDP would increase (12561.296 million USD 10ss/160 million population) 78.50 USD, that is our GDP would be (1314 USD+78.50 USD) 1392 USD. If we calculate this economic loss from 1971 then the GDP of Bangladesh might be more and more larger than the present amount. On the other hand, if this loss being continued, then the severity of economic loss will have been increasing exponentially and this may be one of the main hindrance for achieving the middle income country within the 2021 and subsequently, developed country within the 2041 as mentioned in the long-term perspective plan (2010 to 2021) and the economic goal of the present government.
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