M.N. Hebbar :
Like a long-running West End play, the Ukraine saga shows no signs of closure. And European politicians, seemingly fatigued by the unending drama, are looking forward to a steady de-escalation of the crisis. The election of Petro Poroshenko as Ukraine’s new president in May has infused fresh hopes that this may be closer to reality although, characteristic of newly elected politicians, the president has vowed to end insurgency and thundered in his victory speech that “Crimea was, is and will be a permanent part of Ukraine!”
The Ukraine polls also coincided with elections in May for the European Parliament whose results have stunned observers in that nationalist, Eurosceptic parties from Britain and France left the European Union licking its wounds and facing a policy dilemma. Across the continent, anti-establishment parties of the far right and hard left more than doubled their representation, harnessing their mood of anger with Brussels over austerity, mass unemployment and immigration.
Across the Channel, another tremor raised new doubts about Britain’s long-term future in the EU. Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party (UKIP), which advocates immediate withdrawal from the EU, defeated the opposition Labour Party and David Cameron’s Conservatives. While the anti-EU vote was amplified in many countries by a low turnout of just 43.1 per cent, the pro-European centre ground held firm in Germany, the EU’s biggest member state with the largest number of seats, as well as Italy and Spain.
This scenario has now been enveloped by what has been seen as two potential political earthquakes that will hit Europe, one in the short term, and the other with a not-too-long time frame. Let us take the first one – Scotland will vote for a referendum on September 18 on whether to become an independent country.
The Scottish question poses the uncomfortable implication that should Scotland break away from Britain, it will have to apply afresh for EU membership as the EU treaty would cease to apply to that territory and Scotland would be treated like any other new applicant to join the EU. In effect, this may place Scotland well behind Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia in the EU stakes. It is estimated that Scotland would have to wait until 2019 at the earliest to re-enter the EU.
There are earnest pleas to Scotland from the British premier David Cameron not to break off as the present arrangement provides Scotland with space to take decisions, while still retaining the security that comes with being part of something bigger. Some 4 million are eligible to vote in this referendum. Furthermore, not only will the UK break up later this year if Scotland votes for independence, but there is also the distinct possibility that a planned European referendum in 2017 might see Eurosceptics prevail.
Should Scotland win independence and Eurosceptics succeed in any eventual EU plebiscite, things could deteriorate even further for the EU as this would see the UK being dealt a severe blow in terms of the influence the remainder of the UK would have on the EU. Moreover, even the continued union between England, Northern Ireland and Wales could be in jeopardy. Britain leaving the EU may herald the further unraveling of the EU by members already disillusioned with the euro and the travails of the eurozone.
Such an eventuality is potentially disastrous for the UK inasmuch as the rest of Europe would be disadvantaged by the absence of British membership which has been acknowledged as very useful. The UK now accounts for 1% of global population and around 3% of world GDP. Besides, it is agreed that UK’s role in Europe does magnify the power of its ideas and its international clout in Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
The EU as the world’s largest trading bloc certainly enhances UK’s bargaining position, especially in the context of the ongoing trade negotiations with the US over the proposed US-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and helps drive FDI into the British economy. Indeed, the UK is now the world’s fourth largest recipient of FDI.
Brussels may not be perfect but the British economy would suffer if it left the European club, not to mention a major geopolitical misstep in the process.
Indeed, several multinationals and companies headquartered in the Far East in places such as Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and others have turned vocal in threatening to reconsider their investments in Britain if it leaves the EU. The reason is simple. These companies see their UK operations as an effective way to access the vast European market of some 500 million.
The impact of Scottish independence will also undermine Britain’s influence in many other ways. A UK parliamentary committee has pointed out, for instance, that losing the Scottish tax base, especially at a time of fiscal austerity, could lead to further budgetary cuts to the armed forces. Furthermore, it could even threaten the future of Trident, Britain’s expensive independent nuclear deterrent.
UK’s voice in international forums may also be eroded. The UN, G7/8, and G20 to Nato would all be diminished in making Britain’s voice heard. The worst case scenario could also find some non-permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and/or other UN members working towards a review of British membership of the UNSC.
In a lighter vein, public opinion has it that the British would be loathe to distance themselves from the popular image of Scottish bagpipers in their colourful skirts, entertaining people with music and pageantry, as part of their own tradition and culture. Although only 4 million people can vote in this referendum, some 63 million in the UK will be profoundly affected if they choose to stay out of the UK.
In the meanwhile, EU foreign ministers gathering in Brussels two days ago have reiterated their readiness to intensify targeted sanctions and implement additional measures if Russia continues its military activities in eastern Ukraine. President Putin has, however, denied Russian meddling in eastern Ukraine. As is his wont, he asked for proof and taunted Western leaders with this rejoinder:
“The entire world remembers the US Secretary of State demonstrating the proof of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, waving around some test tube with washing powder in UNSC,”!
(M.N.Hebbar is a veteran journalist and commentator on European affairs)
