Dr Matiur Rahman :
The number and ratio of elderly people in the population of almost every country in the world are increasing. The size and age structure of a country’s population depends on the birth rate, mortality rate and migration process. The increasing number of elderly people is called population ageing which measures the dependency ratio of older people.The dependency ratio is a measure of the number of dependents aged zero to 14 and over the age of 65, compared with the total population aged 15 to 64. This demographic indicator gives insight into the number of people of non-working age, compared with the number of those of working age.
According to the National Policy on Older Person 2013, those in Bangladesh who are 60 years of age or older are recognized as elderly. Later on, a portion of the population was given official recognition as senior citizens. At present, 8 per cent of the population in Bangladesh is 60 years of age or above (BBS, 2019) which is projected to reach 12 per cent by 2030 according to the projection of a UN report. According to another report of UN, the percentage of the population with an age of 65 years and above is 5.2 per cent.
Demographers try to divide a country or society into two categories, taking into account the rate of the population dependent on others due to age. If 7 percent of the total population is over 65 years of age, then in their view, it is an ageing society. And if 14 percent or more of the total population is elderly people, then it is an aged society.
According to Unicef, the number of people over the age of 65 is increasing in the country. It has hinted that Bangladesh will become an aged people country in the next two to two and a half decades. The UN body says Bangladesh’s chances of getting additional benefits from economically active people are slowly dwindling. The country will become an ageing society in 2029. And from there it will gradually become an aged society in 2047.
In a policy paper, Unicef said that the number of working people in the total population of Bangladesh has been increasing since 1978. The opportunity to get development benefits from the population started from then. In 2033, the rate of the working population will start declining rapidly.
According to the global population projection of the United Nations, the population of Bangladesh is 16 crore 46 lakhs. Of these, 26.8 percent are under 14 years of age. The working population or 15 to 64-year-olds constitute 68 percent of the total population. And people aged 65 and over have 5.2 percent. This means that 32 people depend on an income of 68 percent. The dependency rate is 47 percent.
When the number or rate of dependent population is low, it is conducive to development. The United Nations says people aged 0-14 and 65 or older depend on other people’s incomes. These ages are not productive. The productive ones are 14 to 65-year-olds. They make a significant contribution to the economic development of a country.
Bangladesh has had some important achievements in the socio-economic sectors in the last few decades. One of these is to reduce infant mortality as well as the overall fertility rate. In 1975, a woman between the ages of 15 and 49 gave birth to an average of 6.3 children. Now a mother gives birth to an average of 2.3 children.
From this, it can be seen that Bangladesh has gone from a high mortal and fertile society to a low mortal and fertile society. Demographers call it a demographic transition. This is certainly a great achievement for Bangladesh.
Due to the demographic transformation, the age structure of the population of Bangladesh is undergoing major changes. The youth rate was much higher in the 1980s. The middle-aged rate was lower than that. And the rate of seniors was even lower. That is, the population structure was like a pyramid.
By 2015, the change in the population structure became visible. Then the rate of children in the population began to decrease. The rate of middle-aged people continues to rise. With the rate of the elderly gradually increasing, now with the 1950 projection, Unicef says the rate of dependence on the working population will increase significantly. That means the upper side of the pyramid will be heavier or bigger.
Unicef also points out some of the difficulties in increasing the rate of ageing rapidly. In 2020, one elderly person was found to be dependent on the earnings of 13 working people. In 2040, an elderly person will be dependent on six working people. In other words, the ratio of working and elderly populations will continue to decrease.
The government’s 8th Five Year Plan states that population-based opportunities began in 1978 and will end in 2033. The country is moving according to plan. Planning is being done following the projection of the population. The budget is being allocated in line with the plan. It also states that emphasis has been giventothe education and training of women to increase their participation in the labour market. The 8th Five Year Plan also states that demographic change may be a challenge for young people to find work. For this, they urgently need policy attention. Similarly, there is a need to increase policy focus on the health and well-being of the growing elderly population.
(The writer is a researcher and
development worker).
