Dr. Md. Enamul Hoque :
After the heroic come-back, the Taliban in Afghanistan this time talked about a peaceful transfer of power and harmony with its neighbours. But, thousands of Afghans were in panic and terrified, and many of them gathered in the airport to flee from Kabul. The scenes of chaos from the airport speak to the fear in the hearts of hundreds of thousands of Afghans.
As the Taliban return, Afghanistan’s past threatens its future. In their first term (1996-2001), they introduced many harsh measures for which they were severely criticized home and abroad. For instance, they banned women from working, closed schools for girls and forced men to grow a beard. It seems that they will be relatively more flexible in their political perspective. The expectation that they have learned from their political mistakes is quite high and therefore the possibility of political recognition of the new regime is much higher than before.
Surprisingly, in the diplomatic sense, there were signs that the movement intends to be more pragmatic. The Taliban’s representatives were careful in taking diplomatic steps designed to reassure the United States, China, Russia and Iran. At the same time, they have signaled neighbouring countries that they won’t experience problems like terrorism and radicalization. Indeed, the Taliban is not expected to make a deliberate attempt to export its ideology to the region; instead, it is hoped that it will limit itself to Afghanistan.
By this time, the Taliban proved them capable of uniting the various armed groups under its leadership. It even signaled that some Afghans, who worked with the U.S. in the past, may go unpunished; which is a very good sign of stability. Yet, it is doubtful that Afghanistan to enjoy political stability in the medium term unless the Taliban forms a transition government by bringing together various parts of Afghan society. To avoid being cast out of the international community altogether, the Taliban will have to make a serious effort.
It seems that the Taliban is politically and ideologically more matured than they were before. Now, the Taliban’s policies will largely determine the future of countries in the region, policies of global powers toward the region as well the future of Afghanistan. The following questions need to be answered in order to understand the future of the country: What kind of policy will the Taliban follow in a domestic setting? What kind of transformation and change awaits Afghanistan? Will the Taliban try to export a “regime change” to other regional countries? Will regional and global actors recognize the Taliban regime?
Many regional states and global powers, especially those who challenge the U.S. policy in the region, have begun to initiate dialogue with the Taliban and recognize the new regime. Some countries consider the Taliban control of the country as a reflection of the right of self-determination of the Afghan people. As a matter of the fact, China recognized the Taliban regime on the very first day of its takeover. Some other states such as Russia, Pakistan and Iran are in the line to initiate an official dialogue with the Taliban. The consolidation of the Taliban’s relations with China, Russia and Iran will require mutual conciliation and compromise.
Regional countries such as China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Uzbekistan expect re-assurance from the Taliban that Afghanistan will not become an operational base for other radical groups. At this point, the Taliban promise that they will not allow these groups to conduct abusive activities against regional countries, which is praise-worthy approach from the Taliban.
The Taliban may still face a dilemma in the near future. They need to improve their relations with China and Russia. Iran and the Taliban have good relations for now. However, considering their conflicting ideological perspectives, it may be really difficult to overcome their differences.
The Taliban insistently claim that they will limit their influence within Afghanistan. They declared that their ultimate objective is establishing the Islamic Emirate within the country. The Taliban claims to stay as a nationalist and a territorial organization. If the Taliban secure political stability and incorporate other ethnic groups and Shiite people, political recognition will be relatively easier, since non-Western countries such as China and Iran do not have pre-conditions in their relationship with other actors.
The Taliban have already invited engineers and doctors to contribute to the economic development of their country. It seems that the Taliban may follow an ideological policy in the domestic setting, but a pragmatic policy in their foreign relations. In spite of these positive expectations, the future of Afghanistan seems quite blurry. It will be very difficult to integrate different ethnic groups in the governance of the country, to control radical groups that have taken refuge in Afghanistan and to meet all the expectations of regional and global powers. We hope to see Afghanistan’s stability and a developed nation in this universe.
(Dr. Md. Enamul Hoque is educational researcher and teacher educator. He is ex- professor of English. Email: [email protected])
