Bertil Lintner :
The ballot count for the general election in the country once known as Burma is not yet official, but celebrations have begun. The opposition National League for Democracy, NLD, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, appears to have scored a landslide victory and left the military’s Union Solidarity and Development Party, USDP, with a handful seats in the National Assembly. People hope for transition to democratic and civilian rule in a country where the military in different guises has held the reins of power since a coup in 1962.
Now the real work begins, and a new government led by NLD must deliver on its promises – or disappoint the people who voted for change on November 8. Expectations are enormously high after the election, and it’s often overlooked that it will be a government with limited powers, even if the NLD manages to get a majority of elected National Assembly seats, which according to preliminary results seems to be the case. The limits are evident – despite her electoral triumph Suu Kyi is barred from heading the government led by her party.
According to the 2008 constitution, citizens with a spouse or children who are foreign citizens cannot serve as president. Suu Kyi’s late husband, Michael Aris, who passed away in 1999, was British; their two sons are British and US citizens, respectively. Suu Kyi has stated that she will be “above the president,” but it is uncertain what that means and what post she would get in the new government.
The country’s constitution, promulgated after a blatantly rigged referendum in May 2008, is tailor-made to preserve the dominant role of the military – no amendments to that constitution can be done unless more than 75 per cent of all MPs vote in favour of such a proposal. With the office of the commander-in-chief appointing 25 per cent of all seats, the military holds what amounts to veto power over any attempts to establish a more democratic order.
Most crucially, the military is autonomous and takes orders from only the commander-in-chief, not the president and his or her government. Then, the military – and not any elected person or entity – appoints the three most powerful ministers: those of defence, home affairs and border affairs.
A multitude of ethnic rebel armies have been active in the country’s frontier areas for decades. A much-touted “Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement” between eight such groups and the government on October 15 this year, fell short of being an important step towards peace. Only two groups signing the accord could be considered genuine rebel armies: the Karen National Union, KNU, and the Restoration Council of Shan State, RCSS and its Shan State Army South. A third, the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army, or DKBA, has, in effect, been a militia on the side of the government since it broke from KNU in 1994. The fourth group, a Karen faction, is small, more of a civil society organisation than a rebel army.
Closer to the Burmese heartland, the new government must deal with discontent in rural areas, where farmers have seen their land confiscated and given to crony businessmen close to the military.
The military’s own conglomerate, the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings, UMEH, is believed to control or be involved in an estimated 70 percent of all major businesses in the country. Needless to say, the government has no power over the shadowy UMEH and how its fortunes are spent. To break the political and economic power of the military will be an almost insurmountable task for the new government. The repercussions could be severe if the National Assembly fails to live up to the expectations of the millions of people who voted for the NLD – and it would not be too difficult for the mighty military to make that happen, undermining the popularity of the NLD and its charismatic leader. For after more than half-a-century of having had absolute powers, few here believe that the military will fade into the background, or as renowned Burmese author Wendy Law-Yone put it in an interview with Borderlessnewsonline the day after the election: “Dictatorships’ habits die hard in countries like Burma.”
(Bertil Lintner is a former correspondent with the Far Eastern Economic Review and author of several books)
