BBC :
Myanmar has held its first openly contested general election for 25 years. Many expect the party of former political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi to win the most seats but, as the BBC’s Jonah Fisher in Myanmar explains, that doesn’t mean it will come out on top.
Sunday’s vote was the first time since 1990 that Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has competed in a nationwide vote, but the constitution has been designed to constrain and control the outcome. The Burmese army calls it “disciplined democracy”.
Twenty-five percent of the seats in parliament are reserved for the military, and the key security ministries are nominated not by the president but the army’s commander-in-chief.
Whatever the result the army will still be extremely powerful and Aung San Suu Kyi is blocked from becoming president. In fact, we are unlikely to know who Myanmar’s next president is before February.
The top job isn’t chosen by popular vote but indirectly by parliament – a complex process which will culminate with both houses choosing between three presidential candidates.
To be certain of putting their man or woman in the presidency the winning party will need half the MPs but, with three in the race, as little as 40% might be enough.
And the reason we know it won’t be Ms Suu Kyi is Clause 59F. This stipulates that anyone with foreign children is ineligible to become president and as she has two British sons that rules her out.
However big an NLD landslide, if the army wants to keep that clause it simply can’t be changed. But these are some of the scenarios that could unfold.
To achieve this the NLD needs to win two-thirds of all the contested seats. It’s a big ask and will only be achieved if it wins large numbers of seats outside the areas dominated by the ethnic Bamar, the dominant group in Myanmar.
As Ms Suu Kyi can’t become president, she says she will nominate someone else and still lead the government, probably from the position of Speaker of the house.
This option appears the most clear cut, but it could also prove problematic. Some may see Ms Suu Kyi overtly controlling a puppet president as unconstitutional.
There is also the possibility that, emboldened by a big win, she will push hard for greater reform and constitutional change. That is likely to lead very quickly to confrontation with the army.
In August, when the Burmese military felt it had lost control of the ruling USDP party, it helped engineer a “soft coup” and a change of leadership. The possibility of that happening at a national level should not be discounted.
Myanmar has held its first openly contested general election for 25 years. Many expect the party of former political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi to win the most seats but, as the BBC’s Jonah Fisher in Myanmar explains, that doesn’t mean it will come out on top.
Sunday’s vote was the first time since 1990 that Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has competed in a nationwide vote, but the constitution has been designed to constrain and control the outcome. The Burmese army calls it “disciplined democracy”.
Twenty-five percent of the seats in parliament are reserved for the military, and the key security ministries are nominated not by the president but the army’s commander-in-chief.
Whatever the result the army will still be extremely powerful and Aung San Suu Kyi is blocked from becoming president. In fact, we are unlikely to know who Myanmar’s next president is before February.
The top job isn’t chosen by popular vote but indirectly by parliament – a complex process which will culminate with both houses choosing between three presidential candidates.
To be certain of putting their man or woman in the presidency the winning party will need half the MPs but, with three in the race, as little as 40% might be enough.
And the reason we know it won’t be Ms Suu Kyi is Clause 59F. This stipulates that anyone with foreign children is ineligible to become president and as she has two British sons that rules her out.
However big an NLD landslide, if the army wants to keep that clause it simply can’t be changed. But these are some of the scenarios that could unfold.
To achieve this the NLD needs to win two-thirds of all the contested seats. It’s a big ask and will only be achieved if it wins large numbers of seats outside the areas dominated by the ethnic Bamar, the dominant group in Myanmar.
As Ms Suu Kyi can’t become president, she says she will nominate someone else and still lead the government, probably from the position of Speaker of the house.
This option appears the most clear cut, but it could also prove problematic. Some may see Ms Suu Kyi overtly controlling a puppet president as unconstitutional.
There is also the possibility that, emboldened by a big win, she will push hard for greater reform and constitutional change. That is likely to lead very quickly to confrontation with the army.
In August, when the Burmese military felt it had lost control of the ruling USDP party, it helped engineer a “soft coup” and a change of leadership. The possibility of that happening at a national level should not be discounted.
