Anisul Islam Noor :
As per the revised Power Sector Master Plan (PSMP)- 2016, over 82,000 MW power demand forecast until 2041 is unrealistic and abnormally high, experts said.
They, however, said the power demand would reach 61,000MW in 2041 if the double-digit domestic growth of economy is continued.
The revised PSMP- 2016 estimated the investment requirement of US$150 billion for increasing the power generation capacity and $25 billion for transmission capacity, its study report said.
The revised plan showed that the idle power generation capacity would rise up to 56 per cent in 2022 from current 18 per cent and would gradually come down to 14 per cent by 2041.
Representatives of two Japanese power companies presented a summary of the revised PSMP-2016 at a seminar in Dhaka recently. The companies-Tokyo Electric Power Services Co Ltd and Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc-revised the PSMP-2016 with the increased demand forecast from 61000MW to 82000MW.
Japan International Cooperation Agency funding the project of preparation of the master plan for Bangladesh.
Mohammad Hossain, Director General of Power Division’s Power Cell, said that the projection of power generation capacity requirement was quite unrealistic. “I am not convinced with the projections,” he said.
A Power Development Board official said that idle or reserve power generation capacity above 20 per cent is not economically viable for any economy.
Consumers’ Association of Bangladesh (CAB) Energy Adviser M Shamsul Alam, also an electrical engineering professor, termed the revised PSMP-2016 as ‘a demonstration of foolishness and ignorance’.
‘It is simply a reflection of the government’s wishful plans in power sector, not taken from a professional approach based on technically sound studies and estimates,’ he said, adding that if implemented, the plan would cause huge wastage of resources and investments.
Shamsul Alam said that the recent double-digit growth in power demand was a bubble, which would not sustain even for the next two years.
The Rural Electrification Board is now showing 14 per cent growth in power demand through extending power connections in the country’s poverty-hit areas, which is not sustainable unless industrialisation and commercial activities are expanded to rural areas, he said.
The CAB’s energy adviser observed that the current power demand growth, 5-6 per cent, in Dhaka is only sustainable
The revised PSMP has projected per capita power generation at 2,400 units or kilowatt-hour per annum for being a developed nation by 2041, which was 1,500 units in the previous plan.
