Raisi, Rouhani’s closest rival, got 15.8 million votes. A big turnout on Friday led to the vote being extended by several hours to deal with long queues. The election was seen by many as a verdict on Rouhani’s policy of opening up Iran to the world and his efforts to rebuild its stagnant economy.
Rouhani swept into office four years ago on a promise to reduce Iran’s international isolation. Friday’s poll was the first since he negotiated a historic deal with World powers in 2015 to curb the country’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
In the campaign trail, Rouhani sought to frame the vote as a choice between greater civil liberties and “extremism”, criticising the continued arrest of reformist leaders and activists. Raisi, for his part, accused Rouhani of mismanaging the economy and positioned himself as a defender of the poor, calling for a much tougher line with the West.
In contrast to the 2013 election campaign, when Rouhani spoke about the removal of sanctions and the improvement of the economy, this time his message was different. His campaign slogans were all about social and political freedom, and this resonated with the large urban middle class of Iran, who voted overwhelmingly for him. Rouhani’s re-election is likely to safeguard the 2015 agreement, under which most international sanctions have been lifted in return for Iran curbing its nuclear programme.
Rouhani has vowed to work towards removing the remaining non-nuclear sanctions, but critics argue that will be hard with Mr Trump as US President. Trump has repeatedly described it as “one of the worst deals ever signed”, although his administration re-authorised waivers from sanctions this week.
Rouhani is also expected to face the same restrictions that prevented him from delivering substantial social change in his first term. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has veto power over all policies and ultimate control of the security forces, while Rouhani has been unable to secure the release of reformist leaders from house arrest.
Unfortunately Rouhani, during an increasingly acrimonious election campaign, alienated a lot of Iran’s significant state institutions who may be in no mood to cooperate with him going forward. This may prove to be a serious roadblock towards him fulfilling his promises. One of his main successes has been in controlling inflation which he brought down to 7 percent, but unemployment remains absurdly high at over 10 percent, with youth unemployment much higher. He has his work cut out to deliver on his campaign promises.
