Few doubts that credible intelligence of Iranian threat exists, yet another reminder of what deadly actors Iran and its proxies can be in the Middle East. But there is disagreement over just how serious and how imminent those threats are. Trump Administration made the case that Americans faced mortal danger and increased the pressure on Iran to quell it.
The Islamic Republic’s response to that pressure, however, only heightened the danger. Two specific instances come to mind. First, Iran announced that it would produce four times more low-enriched uranium. That could potentially put it over the amount the 2015 nuclear deal allows it to have within weeks, which means Iran would be in violation of the agreement President Donald Trump withdrew the US from in May 2018.
Tehran is not bluffing, Henry Rome, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group, wrote in an email. The move will also slowly reduce “Iran’s breakout time” to obtain highly enriched uranium needed to make a nuclear weapon, he continued, potentially setting up a geopolitical crisis over the nuclear issue in the first quarter of 2020.
Rayhan Ahmed Topader
London
[email protected]
