Bijan Lal Dev :
Ominously, the climate change is happening. Skepticism is over. The good news is that the United States, the most reluctant country to accept the global warming and consequent adversaries including climate change and extreme weather events, has started to believe that the earth is warming as the 12 warmest years in the US in the recorded history have all come in the last 15 years and the severity caused by Hurricane Sandy in 2013. The bad news is that global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, the main reason for climate change, are continuing to rise at an accelerated pace and will continue to rise if the world does not take immediate actions. Obviously, women and children will be more severely affected by the climate change because of their social roles and because of discrimination and poverty.
A few recent events have proved that the world has been looking forward to the climate change mitigation and adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international body for assessing the science related to climate, recently released their Fifth Assessment Report seven years after publishing the epoch-making Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. The report stated that despite a growing number of climate change mitigation policies, annual GHG emissions grew on average 2.2% per year from 2000 to 2010 compared to 1.3% per year from 1970 to 2000. The total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in the human history from 2000 to 2010 and reached to 49 gigaton carbon dioxide equivalent in 2010 from 39 gigaton in 2000 despite global economic crisis and reduced consumer demands. And the incremental GHG has come from various sectors including 47% from energy supply, 30% from industry, 11% from transport and 3% from buildings. Carbondioxide remains the major GHG accounting for 76% of the total GHG emission in 2010, while, methane contributed to 16%, nitrous oxide 6.2% and 2% from fluorinated gases. Furthermore, the carbondioxide emission from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contributed about 78% of the total GHG emission and the rate has been increased from 1970 to 2000. Economic and population growth will continue to be the most important drivers of increasing carbondioxide from fossil fuel combustion, the report forecasted. If there is no additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, the global mean surface temperature will be increased in 2100 from 3.7ºC to 4.8ºC compared to pre-industrial levels. According to the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC, the global surface temperature has increased by 0.65ºC from 1956 to 2005 at a doubly faster rate than last 100 year average. In consistence with the global surface warming, the sea level has also risen at an average rate of about 3 millimeter per year from 1993 to 2003.
Coincidentally, the US Global Change Research Program published their Third National Climate Assessment report in May 2014 where they endorsed that the US, like the rest of the world, is warming. Precipitation patterns are changing, sea level is rising, the oceans are becoming more acidic, and the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events are increasing. This is a paradigm shift for the organization
as their second assessment report which was published in 2009 showed a little concern about global warming. Their third report comes close on the heels of the fourth and fifth reports of the IPCC. Accordingly, on 2 June 2014, President Obama announced one of the strongest actions ever taken by the US government to fight climate change, a proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulation to cut carbon pollution from the US power plants 30 percent from the 2005 level by 2030. He took similar attempt in 2010 to comply with his big promise that he had made at the 15th Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen in 2009 that the US would cut its GHG emissions 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020, and 83 percent by 2050. But he failed to get it through the Congress. The newly proposed regulation, as per the practices in the US Congress, now is open to public comment and there is no legal deadline for finalizing the regulation although Mr. Obama has directed the EPA to issue the rule by June 2015 and it already smelled a rat. But the latest assessment reports of the US and the IPCC sound alarm bells.
Interestingly, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has taken a new initiative to converge the world leaders on purposeful and law-abiding dialogue. He thinks, the more we delay, the more we will pay. So, he is hosting the Climate Summit on 23 September in New York at the sidelines of the annual UN General Assembly where the world leaders will attend. Hopefully, the Summit will mobilize political will for a meaningful legal agreement on climate change in Paris COP in 2015 after successful Lima COP in December 2014. The UN is expecting that the world leaders will pledge ambitious new emissions targets for their countries by next spring and will make headway on a global climate treaty. Then, it would be a turning point in climate change from awareness to action. An UN-initiated Ascent was held in Abu Dhabi in May 2014 to explore new approaches and initiatives. Nine action areas including promoting energy efficiency and the use of renewable, reducing short-lived climate pollutants, reducing deforestation, climate-friendly agriculture, climate action in cities, promoting low-carbon transportation, improved resilience through adaptation and disaster risk reduction and financing for climate action have been coalesced in the Ascent. The UN also launched Big Data Climate Challenge where world-class scientists, technologists and citizens from across the world submit the best ideas that show data-driven evidence of impact of climate change. It will also reveal critical insights for strengthening resilience and mitigating emissions. The winning submissions will be showcased at the Climate Summit.
Bangladesh is in dilemma. As a least developed country, it is difficult for Bangladesh to take ambitious and costly mitigation and adaptation programs. Introduction of new green technology is almost unreachable due to shortage of fund and lack of technological know-how. The industrialized countries for the last 100 years or more and the emerging economies for the last three decades have been emitting GHG at a higher rate where the contribution of the LDCs especially Bangladesh is almost nil. Unfortunately, Bangladesh and other coastal countries are the worst sufferers of the impact of climate change. Donor finance is critical and complementary to enable the low-carbon and climate-resilient economy which is also likely to reduce the inequalities therein in accruing wealth. The developed and emerging countries should
commit to act vigorously to improve the ability of the financial system to help tackle climate change. They can develop the green bond market to facilitate investors to accelerate investment into low-carbon and climate-resilient opportunities including managing climate risk and opportunity, reducing carbon intensity and supporting dissemination of best practices. However, Bangladesh has implemented some 270 projects for adaptation and mitigation funded by the government under the Climate Change Trust Fund. Besides, projects are being implemented by the support of the development partners from the Climate Change Resilient Fund, although it has been poorly financed. The projects should be taken on need-based assessment. Constant and close monitoring and evaluation of the project implementation process should be ensured. The dangerous consequences of sea-level rise and displacement, extreme weather events, illness and diseases fall to a greater extent on women and children. Climate projects should primarily be taken to address their vulnerabilities. Developed countries should come out of their cynical attitude to ensure inclusive growth and social development across the world.
(PID-Feature)
