THE country is yet to reach the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak due to the government’s “unscientific” and “vague” strategy from the beginning, say experts. This is in spite of the fact that the country went through a general holiday but the period was squandered and now the results are out.
The government should devise and adopt a scientific and precise strategy and then oversee its implementation. Sporadic measures will not stop the spread of the infection. At this point contact tracing of all suspected patients and mass testing are the only two ways to get the disease under control. But the inability of the government to control it so far speaks volumes about its ability to control the situation now.
At a sustained 41% reduction in the transmission of the virus, the scenario suggested by a model prepared by Imperial College of the UK predicts that the peak of deaths would be in the beginning of September going as high as 10,200 deaths on a single day, with the epidemic coming to an end in February 2021.
Of course, one would expect that this number would never be reached, if the government reintroduces stricter forms of lockdown way before then. If for example, the reduction in the transmission of the virus was increased in a month’s time from an assumed 41% to 60%, this would reduce the peak (in August) right down to about 900 a day.
Giving the administration and police the responsibility resulted in the spread of immature policies like hoisting flags on top of those houses which were infected, forcing people to lie about their disease. Though the formation of a national committee headed by health experts, there should be at least several hundred sub-committees that will look after the zones, and local police, admin and representatives should be members of these committees headed by health officials.
As the above forecasted model tells us the difference between proper handling of the case and a loose approach can result in the difference of over 90 percent of deaths — a significant number. Since the current mortality rate is ten percent the difference could mean that overall deaths are reduced from over a million to just under one hundred thousand — if every single person in the country is infected. So the administration needs to up its game and go for comprehensive methods to stop this — sporadic methods will no longer work.
