Dr. Mohammad Mohi Uddin :
The pandemic novel type of coronavirus (COVID-19) has been appeared as a global threat as this virus has affected 196 countries and one international conveyance (www.worldometer.info) dated 24th of March, 2020 and infecting human in an unexpectedly rapid rate. Every government has been taking the highest level of precautions and investing all possible options for safe guarding their own people. The outbreak of this virus was first detected in Bangladesh on 8th of March, 2020 and people are getting panic day-by-day. Bangladesh government has taken the topmost priority to decrease the infections and saving the millions of populations. Against this, it might be too early, but it should have the similar importance to think on the consequences of the Coronavirus on other issues for economic stability of the country. Diary sector of Bangladesh is a promising sector which contributing to the economic growth, so proper attention might be given to this sector to trade off the economic loss of the dairy sector due to coronavirus outbreak. The dairy stakeholders have double burden than people who does not have dairy cows. Since millions of dairy farmers are engaged in dairy farming for daily livelihoods, it is of paramount important to realize the effect of this virus not only to the human health but also on dairy cattle and dairy farmers. Considering this purview in mind, Integrated Dairy Research Network (IDRN) of the Department of Animal Nutrition, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh has taken initiatives to analyze the impact of coronavirus on dairy farms along with alternative options that need be taken by the dairy farmers for saving their own lives, dairy cows and dairy farms.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)-impact in economics of milk production and milk price
Despite the increased demand for products as consumers stock up shelves for potential quarantines or to limit their trips to the grocery store, keeping up with that demand and securing the supply chain has not been an easy feat. With more travel restrictions in place because of the potential risk of spreading the diseases, export both to and from China have been impacted, hurting the positive trajectory that dairy was on globally. The viral outbreak, thus, is a potential hurdle as this might have negative impact on china’s import from USA and other milk surplus countries, which will lead to increase the milk stock in the major exporting countries, thus will have impact on reducing world milk price in the long-run. Although there is no risk for the dairy cattle with the current outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) but it is expected a strong economic consequence on dairy sector and dairy farms, until take adequate measures in the right time.
With total milk production of 9.92 million ton in 2018, Bangladesh dairy has been focusing on to the ways to become self-sufficient. Bangladesh dairy has been facing challenges, starting from milk quality scandal during the second half of the year 2019. The milk quality crisis effect has now been combined with recent coronavirus effect which has double counting effect. The IDRN, BAU research wing has made in-depth analysis on the possible economic loss at dairy sector and farm level. The analysis includes the year 2018 as the base year (normal year), the year 2019 has milk quality shock and 2020 (first three months) has coronavirus shock.
The milk price in Bangladesh is always fluctuated due to any event. Historically, the milk price had different shocks compared with global milk price that are stated as below:
o The first shock was observed (Bangladesh milk price was 20% lower than world milk price) during the period of 2008 which was affected due to worldwide economic recession and melamine crisis in china.
o The second hit on the milk price was found in October 2011 (10% lower than world milk price) due to the outbreak of Anthrax in the main region of the country.
o The third milk price crisis (16% lower than world milk price) was evident in the end of 2014 while due to the internal political instability and General Parliament Election without main opposition leading to several strike days.
o The milk price shock (fourth) was again found in January to March, 2015 (7% lower than world milk price) due to the long lasting country wide strike (90 days).
Given with this historical milk price development, may we expect another price shock in the near future due to pandemic coronavirus (COVID-19) effect? The evidence of the impacts from the Coronavirus, is largely anecdotal at this stage because of no data is available on Bangladesh dairy sector. Moreover, it is too early to analyze the impact but our worldwide experience and country wide long-term modeling effect shows that there would have milk price effect in Bangladesh as a result of decrease in global milk price which was reported by world famous Rabobank. The other immediate economic effect will be on the loss due to not marketing milk by the farmers which will lower the milk price. Linked with the milk quality crisis in 2019 which affected more on the milk marketing and farmers has to spill over milk to the street although milk price development was unaffected. Considering the milk production milk decrease of 16% and milk price reduction of 22% into our model based on the DLS data, it is found that due to Coronavirus (COVID-19), there would be a chance to incur a loss of 12320 crore taka by the dairy farmers of Bangladesh. This implies that each day, farmers are losing about 33 crore taka.
In conclusion, the most positive things for the dairy farmers is that coronavirus (COVID-19) infection is expected to have no direct health hazard on the dairy cows and its products. So consumption of milk might be unaffected, the farmers can even use this as opportunity for utilizing the milk production to increase the demand. In contrast, due to limited movement of the people for the next two weeks, there could be short term effect on milk marketing and price might be lowered. The production could be decreased as well if the sufficient measures are not taken in due time. Since the dairy farmers have faced trouble in 2019, and again is in front of the another challenge, it is highly recommended that government, main dairy processors and other input suppliers and policy makers might take responsible actions to minimize the economic loss by the farmers due to the current coronavirus infections. The immediate actions could include as below:
o As a short term, dairy farmers have to continue their normal management practices but with great care. Cows and other herd should be provided with sufficient drinking water and also green grass. If the milk selling is not possible or not possible to deliver the milk to the processor, the farmers can reduce the cash costs by reducing the purchased feeds (e.g. concentrates). This will reduce milk production for a short-term but maintenance of the animal will not be hampered. As results, when normal condition will come, the cows can get back to the original potential for milk production.
o At the same time, government should declare the liquid milk supply chain similar like other food items (as emergency goods).The top processors like Milkvita, Arong, and Pranshould continue their regular intake of the milk and take additional effort to fully utilized their powder processing plant by the collection of some extra liquid milk.
o It is quite interesting that liquid cow’s milk can contribute to increase the immune homeostasis of the humans (especially with oropharynx and upper respiratory tract). The review research article published in “Frontier in Immunology (Volume 9, article 143, year 2018)” clearly revealed that cow’s milk has immunoglobulin (IgG) which is helpful against the bacteria, virus and allergens. The function of IgG is enhanced with vitamin A and D3-both are present in milk, therefore, it can be speculate that cow’s liquid milk may influence the development of immune system in the upper respiratory tract.
o More emphasis should be placed on the awareness or campaign to the people to drink milk which should improve the immune system against corona virus.
o Finally, the government, at this stage, has taken right decision to make all efforts for ensuring the safety of humans first but in the long run need to make judicious decisions targeting the ways to overcome the current and anticipated future loss.
What impact the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak might have on dairy industry of Bangladesh?
The pandemic novel type of coronavirus (COVID-19) has been appeared as a global threat as this virus has affected 196 countries and one international conveyance (www.worldometer.info) dated 24th of March, 2020 and infecting human in an unexpectedly rapid rate. Every government has been taking the highest level of precautions and investing all possible options for safe guarding their own people. The outbreak of this virus was first detected in Bangladesh on 8th of March, 2020 and people are getting panic day-by-day. Bangladesh government has taken the topmost priority to decrease the infections and saving the millions of populations. Against this, it might be too early, but it should have the similar importance to think on the consequences of the Coronavirus on other issues for economic stability of the country. Diary sector of Bangladesh is a promising sector which contributing to the economic growth, so proper attention might be given to this sector to trade off the economic loss of the dairy sector due to coronavirus outbreak. The dairy stakeholders have double burden than people who does not have dairy cows. Since millions of dairy farmers are engaged in dairy farming for daily livelihoods, it is of paramount important to realize the effect of this virus not only to the human health but also on dairy cattle and dairy farmers. Considering this purview in mind, Integrated Dairy Research Network (IDRN) of the Department of Animal Nutrition, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh has taken initiatives to analyze the impact of coronavirus on dairy farms along with alternative options that need be taken by the dairy farmers for saving their own lives, dairy cows and dairy farms.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)-impact in economics of milk production and milk price
Despite the increased demand for products as consumers stock up shelves for potential quarantines or to limit their trips to the grocery store, keeping up with that demand and securing the supply chain has not been an easy feat. With more travel restrictions in place because of the potential risk of spreading the diseases, export both to and from China have been impacted, hurting the positive trajectory that dairy was on globally. The viral outbreak, thus, is a potential hurdle as this might have negative impact on china’s import from USA and other milk surplus countries, which will lead to increase the milk stock in the major exporting countries, thus will have impact on reducing world milk price in the long-run. Although there is no risk for the dairy cattle with the current outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) but it is expected a strong economic consequence on dairy sector and dairy farms, until take adequate measures in the right time.
With total milk production of 9.92 million ton in 2018, Bangladesh dairy has been focusing on to the ways to become self-sufficient. Bangladesh dairy has been facing challenges, starting from milk quality scandal during the second half of the year 2019. The milk quality crisis effect has now been combined with recent coronavirus effect which has double counting effect. The IDRN, BAU research wing has made in-depth analysis on the possible economic loss at dairy sector and farm level. The analysis includes the year 2018 as the base year (normal year), the year 2019 has milk quality shock and 2020 (first three months) has coronavirus shock.
The milk price in Bangladesh is always fluctuated due to any event. Historically, the milk price had different shocks compared with global milk price that are stated as below:
o The first shock was observed (Bangladesh milk price was 20% lower than world milk price) during the period of 2008 which was affected due to worldwide economic recession and melamine crisis in china.
o The second hit on the milk price was found in October 2011 (10% lower than world milk price) due to the outbreak of Anthrax in the main region of the country.
o The third milk price crisis (16% lower than world milk price) was evident in the end of 2014 while due to the internal political instability and General Parliament Election without main opposition leading to several strike days.
o The milk price shock (fourth) was again found in January to March, 2015 (7% lower than world milk price) due to the long lasting country wide strike (90 days).
Given with this historical milk price development, may we expect another price shock in the near future due to pandemic coronavirus (COVID-19) effect? The evidence of the impacts from the Coronavirus, is largely anecdotal at this stage because of no data is available on Bangladesh dairy sector. Moreover, it is too early to analyze the impact but our worldwide experience and country wide long-term modeling effect shows that there would have milk price effect in Bangladesh as a result of decrease in global milk price which was reported by world famous Rabobank. The other immediate economic effect will be on the loss due to not marketing milk by the farmers which will lower the milk price. Linked with the milk quality crisis in 2019 which affected more on the milk marketing and farmers has to spill over milk to the street although milk price development was unaffected. Considering the milk production milk decrease of 16% and milk price reduction of 22% into our model based on the DLS data, it is found that due to Coronavirus (COVID-19), there would be a chance to incur a loss of 12320 crore taka by the dairy farmers of Bangladesh. This implies that each day, farmers are losing about 33 crore taka.
In conclusion, the most positive things for the dairy farmers is that coronavirus (COVID-19) infection is expected to have no direct health hazard on the dairy cows and its products. So consumption of milk might be unaffected, the farmers can even use this as opportunity for utilizing the milk production to increase the demand. In contrast, due to limited movement of the people for the next two weeks, there could be short term effect on milk marketing and price might be lowered. The production could be decreased as well if the sufficient measures are not taken in due time. Since the dairy farmers have faced trouble in 2019, and again is in front of the another challenge, it is highly recommended that government, main dairy processors and other input suppliers and policy makers might take responsible actions to minimize the economic loss by the farmers due to the current coronavirus infections. The immediate actions could include as below:
o As a short term, dairy farmers have to continue their normal management practices but with great care. Cows and other herd should be provided with sufficient drinking water and also green grass. If the milk selling is not possible or not possible to deliver the milk to the processor, the farmers can reduce the cash costs by reducing the purchased feeds (e.g. concentrates). This will reduce milk production for a short-term but maintenance of the animal will not be hampered. As results, when normal condition will come, the cows can get back to the original potential for milk production.
o At the same time, government should declare the liquid milk supply chain similar like other food items (as emergency goods).The top processors like Milkvita, Arong, and Pranshould continue their regular intake of the milk and take additional effort to fully utilized their powder processing plant by the collection of some extra liquid milk.
o It is quite interesting that liquid cow’s milk can contribute to increase the immune homeostasis of the humans (especially with oropharynx and upper respiratory tract). The review research article published in “Frontier in Immunology (Volume 9, article 143, year 2018)” clearly revealed that cow’s milk has immunoglobulin (IgG) which is helpful against the bacteria, virus and allergens. The function of IgG is enhanced with vitamin A and D3-both are present in milk, therefore, it can be speculate that cow’s liquid milk may influence the development of immune system in the upper respiratory tract.
o More emphasis should be placed on the awareness or campaign to the people to drink milk which should improve the immune system against corona virus.
o Finally, the government, at this stage, has taken right decision to make all efforts for ensuring the safety of humans first but in the long run need to make judicious decisions targeting the ways to overcome the current and anticipated future loss.
What impact the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak might have on dairy industry of Bangladesh?
(Dr. Mohammad Mohi Uddin, Network Coordinator, Integrated Dairy Research Network, Associate Professor and Head, Department of Animal Nutrition, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh; email: [email protected])
