Al Amin :
Omicron is likely to disrupt the country’s economic recovery from the shock of the ongoing pandemic, experts said.
They said the economy may gain confidence from the export-import performance in recent months, but it should not be at satisfactory level.
Many European countries, major export destination of the country, have already imposed various restrictions to curb the virus infection, they said.
Rather, thy have suggested to remain extra careful before making any aggressive business decision at this moment by just looking at the stronger trend in growth, because the situation is fluid now.
Dr Zahid Hussain, former lead economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, told The New Nation last night, “Many European countries have already imposed various restrictions on people’s movement. If it prolongs, it will be a matter of concern for us. It may also create order cancellation situation.”
“So, we have to take preparation for the probable impact,” he said.
The threat, caused by the new variant of the Covid-19, is knocking at the door at a time when the country’s economy starts to recover from the pandemic shock. All the sectors are reactivating and the entrepreneurs are undertaking new projects.
Some of the entrepreneurs are expanding their business entities as well. Import of capital machineries and raw materials is also increasing gradually.
As a result, the demand for loans in the private sector is increasing day by day.
According to the Bangladesh Bank data, banks disbursed loans worth Tk 1,06, 596 crore in the industry sector during June to September period of the current fiscal year, which was Tk 94,850 crore in the same period of the last year.
Of the loans, Tk 87,663 crore for big industry, Tk 10,472 crore for medium and Tk 8,862 crore for small industry, the data said.
Resulting, the credit flow in the private sector has increased by 8.77 per cent due to overall improvement of the country’s private sector.
On the other hand, NBR’s data showed that the revenue board achieved 21.31 per cent year-on-year growth in Customs duty sector in July to October period of the current fiscal year, which means that the import of capital machineries has increased.
Meanwhile, the latest export data published by the EPB shows 22.9 per cent growth in readymade garments export during July-November of FY2021-22, compared to same period of the last year.
But the new variants are emerging and the global economy is witnessing immediate shocks.
“Buyers, who are following a cautious step since the first wave of the pandemic, will certainly be more cautious now,” said Mohiuddin Rubel, Director of the BGMEA.
“Particularly, Europe will take more time to recover from the slowdown in retail sector and the buyers have already started to rethink, which are worrying for us,” he added.
“If the upcoming Christmas sale is affected, this will has adverse impact in coming months,” the BGMEA leader said.
