M A Hossain :
North Korea’s recent volley of advanced nuclear missile tests is designed to grab the full attention of the US and the international community. Despite strong international sanctions and a Covid-19 pandemic-torn crippled economy, Marshall Kim Jong Un seems to have re-calibrated his strategy in dealing with the US as his style of “maximum pressure” strategy. Kim believes the maximum pressure by the flurry of powerful nuclear missile tests might be the only way to push the US to make concessions towards his country.
President Biden’s engagement with his global rivals has frustrated his allies and peace-mongering nations. He has been demonstrating a proclivity for opening the curtains with tough rhetoric against his adversaries, but subsequently failed to adhere to the ferocity as promised, which is exhibited in dealing with Iran, Russia and Taliban, and North Korea could well be the next in line to manifest the declawed strength of Biden Administration. Indubitably, the Biden administration’s “ill-defined” diplomacy is insufficient to entice Kim Jong Un back into disarmament negotiations. North Korea’s leadership and state establishments believe the nuclear arsenal as a vital security crutch to confront an enduring superpower threat to its survival.
The history of repeated dead-end disarmament talks have so far exhibited tedious and yet unsuccessful international efforts to reach a fruitful and decisive agreement with Pyongyang.
The western leaders and its allies have failed to procure commitment from Pyongyang to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, the 1992 accord with South Korea to maintain a nuclear-free peninsula, the 1994 agreed framework, the 2005 six-party talks pledge to abandon the nuclear program, the 2012 agreement to halt enrichment and testing of nuclear weapon and last Singapore joint statement between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un endorsing nuclear disarmament. Now the question remains whether it is time to accept the unacceptable nuclear-armed North Korea and offer diplomatic relations by the Western stakeholders to normalize the strained situation.
In retrospect to the history of American diplomacy, the US played a critical role in resolving nuclear crises. For example, President Richard Nixon normalized Washington-Beijing relations in 1971 without questioning china’s nuclear program. It also played a vital role to defuse the Cuban missile crisis, India -Pakistan crisis and the Ussuri river conflict between China and the Soviet Union in 1969. So, the unconditional nuclear status with diplomatic normalization may de-escalate the tense situation in the Asia-pacific region.
The moratorium has largely kept North Korea out of the international spotlight, but long-range missile tests in 2022 suggest that it could reverse the trend to meet domestic goals as well as to coax the US into new negotiations. China, another superpower, has played a smoke and mirror game on North Korea. China has exceedingly depleted the US gambit on North Korea. The US economic sanctions on North Korea have proved insufficient so long China backed Kim’s regime. China also ignored the international counter-proliferation financing regime. North Korea will seek more cooperation with China to revive its economy by resuming trade while carrying out a “Tit for tat” response to US sanctions.
On the other hand, nearly 30,000 US troops are stationed in South Korea for bolstering an offshore nuclear umbrella and sea-based ballistic missile defence. On August 21, the US State department approved a USD 258 million sales of precision-guided weapons to South Korea. Two superpowers, China and the US have divided Korea since 1950. The South is talking about the unification of Korea, while the North is demanding the reunification of Korea. This is a major obstacle in finding a lasting peace formula. I don’t think both Korea would accept the leadership and political system of each other. In my opinion, Korean people definitely should be brought under a single umbrella, keeping two political systems for two Koreans. Under this, there will be a common military force to ensure the sovereignty of both the Koreans as well as assure peaceful coexistence with the neighbours like Japan, China and beyond.
The US has a significant role to play in bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula. First, Pentagon has to abandon any sort of regime change scheme like Libya or Iraq in North Korea. A good faith diplomatic détente, starting from vacating the South Korean alliance and lifting economic sanctions, with the tacit legitimization of nuclear status. This diplomatic gridlock can be dispelled by initiating extra government meetings between former US authorities and North Korean officials in a third country.
This 2022 is the perfect time for North Korea to exert maximum pressure on the US to restore talks, as the US is now struggling with Russia in Eastern Europe and with China in East Asia. North Korea hopes to use its nuclear temptation as leverage to negotiate a peace treaty with South Korea and US troops withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula.
(The writer is a political and defence analyst based in Bangladesh).
