NORTH KOREA has threatened “indiscriminate” nuclear strikes on the US and South Korea as the two begin their largest ever military drills. The exercises, Key Resolve and Foal Eagle, are an annual event and always generate tension. The order for a “pre-emptive nuclear strike of justice” was made in a statement put out by Pyongyang.
Such rhetoric is not uncommon, and experts doubt the North’s ability to put nuclear warheads on its missiles. North Korea says it sees the annual US-South Korean war games as a rehearsal for invasion. Last year, it threatened to turn Washington into a “sea of fire”.
But are the threats empty – or do they indeed have any substance? North Korea technically has a bomb, but not the means to deliver it via a missile – yet. North Korea said it conducted four successful nuclear tests so far from 2006. Analysts believe the first two tests used plutonium, but whether the North used plutonium or uranium as the starting material for the 2013 test is unclear.
Can South Korea defend itself? South Korea already operates a capable and longer-range system Thaad which destroys incoming missiles at a much higher altitude, beyond the Earth’s atmosphere. This makes it especially useful in countering missiles that might carry a nuclear warhead. There is no evidence yet to suggest that North Korea has sufficiently miniaturised a nuclear weapon to enable it to be mounted on a ballistic missile.
The US, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea have engaged the North in multiple rounds of negotiations known as six-party talks, but none of this has ultimately deterred Pyongyang. In 2005, North Korea agreed to a landmark deal to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for economic aid and political concessions. But implementing it proved difficult and talks stalled in 2009.
The attitude of the North Korean leadership seems to be that of a spoilt child – if it wants something it resorts to threats and bluster – but it does not have the capability to attack even South Korea, let alone the US. The regime runs on paranoia and is only intent in securing power for itself at any cost – much to the detriment of the North Koreans. Its a pity that it does not have oil or huge reserves of fossil fuels, or it could easily be accused of harbouring weapons of mass destruction and its regime toppled to make way for democracy. Of course, it also fortunate to have the paternal influence of China to cover its back – otherwise it would probably have gone the way of the dodo long ago.
