AFP, Washington :
The paralysis triggered by the US government shutdown could have unexpected consequences, such as muddying economic statistics just as the markets are extremely reactive to any whiff of uncertainty.
More than a week into the game of chicken between president Donald Trump and Democrats in Congress, the publication and recording of statistical indicators are being delayed.
With the lack of an agreement on Trump’s much-promised wall on the border with Mexico, thousands of government workers are forced to stay home or work without pay due to budget shortages that are also hampering the publication of certain government indicators.
“There will be no lockups for Census or BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and no posting of lockup data from either of those organizations because of the government shutdown affecting those agencies,” said Labor Department spokeswoman Suzanne Bohnert, whose agency oversees the release of those indicators under embargo.
The release of data on new home sales is so far the only indicator to have been delayed.
But if the shutdown is still in effect after 1 January, it could impact the release of figures on construction expenses, such as industrial orders, and on trade-due 8 January-which is critical for markets just as the Trump administration is involved in a full-fledged trade war with some US allies.
The closely watched employment figures for November, usually published the first Friday of the month, are set to be released on 4 January on schedule because the Labor Department still has funds to keep running its operations.
In addition to the publication of data, the very process of collecting this information is also beginning to be compromised.
“Odds are that it’ll continue into January,” Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk said in a tweet.
“The impasse is already cutting into the supply of something that is essential to just about every market out there: federal economic data. That could have an impact on markets going forward and also what the Federal Reserve decides to do with interest rates in 2019.”
The paralysis triggered by the US government shutdown could have unexpected consequences, such as muddying economic statistics just as the markets are extremely reactive to any whiff of uncertainty.
More than a week into the game of chicken between president Donald Trump and Democrats in Congress, the publication and recording of statistical indicators are being delayed.
With the lack of an agreement on Trump’s much-promised wall on the border with Mexico, thousands of government workers are forced to stay home or work without pay due to budget shortages that are also hampering the publication of certain government indicators.
“There will be no lockups for Census or BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and no posting of lockup data from either of those organizations because of the government shutdown affecting those agencies,” said Labor Department spokeswoman Suzanne Bohnert, whose agency oversees the release of those indicators under embargo.
The release of data on new home sales is so far the only indicator to have been delayed.
But if the shutdown is still in effect after 1 January, it could impact the release of figures on construction expenses, such as industrial orders, and on trade-due 8 January-which is critical for markets just as the Trump administration is involved in a full-fledged trade war with some US allies.
The closely watched employment figures for November, usually published the first Friday of the month, are set to be released on 4 January on schedule because the Labor Department still has funds to keep running its operations.
In addition to the publication of data, the very process of collecting this information is also beginning to be compromised.
“Odds are that it’ll continue into January,” Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk said in a tweet.
“The impasse is already cutting into the supply of something that is essential to just about every market out there: federal economic data. That could have an impact on markets going forward and also what the Federal Reserve decides to do with interest rates in 2019.”
