Pandemic spoils economic activities: Key growth pillars under severe stress

Devotees offer prayers at Baitul Mukarram National Mosque on Friday defying physical distancing norm, which is one of the key health guidelines issued by the government while reopening prayers at mosques after a closure of more than one month due to coron
Devotees offer prayers at Baitul Mukarram National Mosque on Friday defying physical distancing norm, which is one of the key health guidelines issued by the government while reopening prayers at mosques after a closure of more than one month due to coron
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Special Correspondent :
Performance of key growth pillars of country’s economy has remained bleak as the coronavirus pandemic significantly impaired economic activities across the globe.
Domestically, containment measures have restrained consumption and investment flow, while slumping global demand and oil prices have extinguished exports and remittance inflow.
In April, there was no growth in the four main economic sectors– export, import, revenue earning and remittance–in Bangladesh, according to Bangladesh Bank.
These sectors were not only declined dramatically but also registered negative growth amid unprecedented slowdown in domestic and global economy, caused by coronavirus containment measures including lockdown.
According to the BB, there was no growth in the revenue sector in April while the sector recorded 54.43 per cent negative growth. Similarly, overall import posted 44.17 negative growth and export posted 84 per cent negative growth in the same month.
Export earnings saw a steep 83 per cent fall year-on-year in April due to halted production and order cancellations in the apparel sector during aforesaid period for the same season.
Bangladesh earned $520 million from exports in April this year, compared to $3 billion during the same month last year, according to Central Bank data.
The apparel sector, which contributes more than 85 per cent of the total export, experienced massive order cancellations, which accounted
 for a big fall in export earnings, said industry insiders.
In May, the country’s outbound shipment registered 61.56 per cent negative growth, while remittance inflow recorded 14 per cent minus growth. In March, export growth fell by 18.29 per cent year-on-year to $2.73 billion.
Overall earnings fell by 13 per cent in the first nine months of the current fiscal year to $29.54 billion.
“We have never experienced something like this. The situation can go even worse in near future as more businesses shut their door and lay off spread due to widespread order cancellation by the buyers,” BGMEA Vice-President M A Rahim (Feroz) told The New Nation.
Remittance, the second largest sources of foreign exchange earnings after exports, has also hit by the pandemic. In March, they dropped by 12 per cent and in April by 25 per cent.
Bangladeshi expatriates sent $1.08 billion remittance in April, which was the lowest in two and a half years and 24.61 per cent lower than the remittance inflow in the same month last year.
The BB data shows that in March, remittance inflow stood at $1.29 billion, a 12.84 per cent less fall from the previous month, and the lowest in 15 months.
“Export, import, revenue and remittance, all have fallen dramatically painting a bleak picture of the impact of coronavirus,” said economist Dr Ahsan H Mansur, Executive Director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), a non-governmental research organization.
Commenting on the scale of devastation of the pandemic on Bangladesh economy, “It is difficult to ascertain the impact right now. It will depend how long the pandemic persist and how widely it spreads.”
But if the virus spreads more broadly, and has a higher mortality rate the economic impact would be proportionately greater, he added.
Replying to a question, Dr Ahsan H Mansur, a former IMF economist, said, “The emergence of hundreds of thousands of Covid-19 cases in the country has dashed the hope of a speedy recovery from the pandemic and the economic devastation.”
Bangladesh’s import decreased 62 per cent year-on-year to $1.95 billion in April as industrial production came to a halt due pandemic containment measures including nationwide closures.
The measures also had crippling effect on workers and businesses across the country. The economy almost came to a standstill due to the countrywide closures and its debilitating effects observed in almost all sectors.
Former Lead economist at the World Bank Dr Zahid Hussain said the coronavirus pandemic pushed the global economy into a deep crisis. It has left adverse impact on Bangladesh economy too.
“We have nothing to do to come out from this fall out until the global economies revive,” he said.
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