Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :
Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 21 announced that he would unilaterally recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent states and send troops to keep the peace. Putin suddenedly attacked Ukraine. According to experts, the main purpose of Putin’s Russian aggression and attack may be to overthrow the pro-Western government in Ukraine, put a pro-Russian government in power and prevent it from becoming a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) member. Only time will tell how much it will be possible in reality.
Experts believe that Russia’s aggression and attack became inevitable due to security concerns. Initially, the West promised to take side with Ukraine in any case, but no state has extented their support with Ukraine since the start of the war. In fact, Ukraine is fighting an unequal war alone. Russian infantry is advancing closer to capturing the capital, Kiev. The Ukrainian army and civilians are fighting hard to prevent the collapse of the capitalutimatily war will aggrabatesutuation in the area and will be amajor obstacle and threat to regional security as well world peace.
The conflict may also badly impact the prices of some basic commodities, industrial raw materials and industrial machinery as both Russia and Ukraine are major sources for these items. Some bankers said the crisis may also affect the banking sector as major international trading partners have already banned some banks from conducting transactions with Russia. Bilateral trade between Bangladesh and Russia is worth nearly $1 billion while two-way trade with Ukraine amounts to about $350 million. Interestingly, Bangladesh’s trade balance with both countries is tilted towards the country due to the heavy concentration of apparel items. On the other hand, Russia and Ukraine are major sources of Bangladesh’s wheat, cotton, and industrial materials and machinery. Similarly, many NATO members import goods from Bangladesh and so, those exports may be affected. With this backdrop, both local banks and businesses should explore alternative ways to resolve the setback. Due to this war, the prices of various commodities have already gone up in the daily commodity market of the country. As a result, if this war is prolonged, it can be said that it will have a huge negative impact on the economy of developing countries like ours. Therefore, considering the war situation in all respects, the government must now make the necessary preparations to keep the wheel of the country’s economy moving and to keep the prices of fuel and commodities at a tolerable level. Otherwise the prices of commodities will go out of reach and the extreme misery of the common people will increase.
Are all avenues of resolution through dialogue exhausted? Will the existing dialogue between parties involved, including the West, truly reach a dead end? Even then, is hostile invasion of innocent people truly ever the only option left? While we condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, we cannot say that the West has no responsibility in bringing the situation to this state. The gradual expansion of Nato, first in 1999 and second in 2008, were swallowed by Russia, who unambiguously asserted that any attempt to incorporate Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance would be the last straw. Now the situation has turned into a war, its effects will inevitably spill over to the rest of the world, including Bangladesh, as prices of essentials will rise further and the global supply chain will be dealt a blow. However, the first priority is to save the Ukrainians from the Russian invasion. While we call for an immediate end to hostilities in Ukraine, we also hope that dialogue and negotiations will win. We do not want a war in Europe.
We are already under pressure to seek support from both sides of the conflict. Representatives of European Union countries and ambassadors of the United States and the United Kingdom condemned the Russian aggression and requested Bangladesh to support them. On the other hand, the Russian Ambassador reminded Bangladesh of Russia’s contribution to the liberation war in 1971 and asked it to follow Bangladesh’s neutral foreign policy. Here we have to proceed very carefully so that we do not get along with any party in any way. The strategic neutrality that we have or are maintaining must be maintained at all costs. We do not want to take the side of any conflict. Finally, we can see that there will be an impact on weaker and smaller countries by Russia’s agression and attack on Ukraine. Besides, Russia’s agression and attack on Ukraine is a threat to regional security and peace. Again, Russia’s intervention to Ukraine’s Sovereignty is a violation of UN Charter. However, situation needs to be observed and accordingly are diplomatictise and relationships must be maintained.
(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar and VDP).
