Abu Hena :
South Asia is home to some 1.7 billion people. It comprises the erstwhile British Indian Subcontinent and its immediate neighbors. In-spite of shared history there is little that helps the region to cohere. Although SARC loosely represents the eight nations, the interstate relationship is neither properly defined nor truly friendly. All these nations have some connection with neighboring regions outside SAARC. Afghanistan straddles Central and Southwest Asia and has connection with Northeast Asia via a short border with China. Bhutan and Nepal have connection with Northeast Asia through their common borders with Chinese controlled Tibet. The Maldives, an island country, has more in common with Mauritius and Seychelles than other South Asian nations. Sri Lanka, which is also an island, is not physically linked to other SAARC countries. Pakistan has common border with Iran. Both India and Bangladesh have common borders with Myanmar. Because of religious and ethnic factors South Asia is not a compact entity. There are indigenous religions, chiefly, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Sikhism. The populations of Bangladesh, the Maldives and Afghanistan are predominantly Muslims. Hindu dominated India has a Muslim minority population of about 200 million. Sri Lanka and Bhutan are Buddhist nations. Christians comprise the majority population of three Indian states: Nagaland, Meghalaya and Mizoram. The term ‘South Asia’ is a post colonial construction, which western geo- political strategists have invented. As a result of partition of British India Muslim majority areas became Pakistan. But the Hindu ruler of Muslim majority Jammu and Kashmir violated the basic principle of partition creating an ongoing contest between India and Pakistan for possession of this entity. This is known as “Kashmir Dispute” which caused two full wars between India and Pakistan, the confrontation in Kargil and many other bloody clashes along the makeshift Line of Control that demarcates India-held J&K and Pakistan held Azad Kashmir. Fairly extensively, the international borders between the eight SAARC countries are now finally settled except the disputed Kashmir where, according to UN resolutions, a plebiscite is still pending.
The geo-strategic reality means that South Asia is ‘India-locked’. Due to this factor , South Asia is an incongruous region and SAARC has been largely ineffectual in advancing the region politically or economically. The South Asian nations enjoy little interconnectivity or inter-regional trade. Indeed, inter-regional trade is less than 2% of GDP, compared to 20% for East Asia. There is little sense of people being citizens of South Asia in the way that diverse people in Europe consider themselves Europeans. The perilous state of India-Pakistan relations have rendered region building an impossible task. Neither nation trusts the other ,and this situation is fostered by their bitter , ongoing dispute since 1947 over the possession of the J&K. This mistrust pervades the region and retards SAARC’s growth as a viable common market. India seeks to ensure that this body does India’s bidding while Pakistan which has the ability to withstand India by virtue of being a nuclear power resists India’s heavy-handed attempts to dominate the organization. India and Pakistan both have nuclear capabilities-comprising respectively 100 and 120 weapons each. These weapons are deliverable by long range ballistic missiles, and both nations are seeking to acquire “second strike capabilities” and nuclear powered submarines. India needs this capability to defend against China and Pakistan needs it to defend against India. Meanwhile India has been looking eastward, while engaging with all other South Asian neighbors, only to isolate Pakistan as a “terrorist state”. Pakistan on the other hand continues to pursue strong relation with China, because it gives Pakistan the feeling of security against India, and reduces India’s influence in the region.
India has concerns that China is seeking to make South Asia part of its greater region. To counter it India is looking and ‘Acting East’ trying to gain land access to Southeast Asia via Myanmar. For their part China and Myanmar are also engaging in a strategic contest for influence in this area where South, Southeast and Northeast all meet. Beijing is trying to compete with India in this region in a number of initiatives. First, with neighboring Pakistan China is developing the momentous China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A second Chinese initiative involves encouraging South Asian nations to develop relations with China, partly to create partnership and partly to limit India’s influence and strategic options. Xi Jinping’s current visit to Bangladesh and China’s $38.05 billion investment and assistance package is one such initiative for strategic partnership. A third Chinese initiative involves China establishing its own regional organizations and initiatives. China’s “String of Pearls” strategy is intended to ingratiate itself throughout the Indian Ocean. China has planned infrastructure projects involving over$ 200 billion for construction and $1 trillion for other projects. Under China’s leadership, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has been set up with prospective 57 founding members including Bangladesh. The bank has a registered capital of $100 billion to fund Asian energy, transport, and infrastructure. This will create borrowing opportunities for South Asian countries. When Chinese entrenchment in South Asia is, thus, gaining stronger ground, India’s “school boy” diplomacy is busy with the task of replacing SAARC by BIMSTEC. Their only aim is the isolation of Pakistan and interference in neighbor’s internal affairs.
[Writer was elected MP in the 7th and 8th parliaments of Bangladesh. He is an author, columnist and political analyst]
