Tanbir Uddin Arman :
China and Taiwan held in very recent time their first historic talks in Nanjing since they split about 6 decades ago. The talk is a landmark in cross- strait relations between the two sides and supposed to produce some concrete results for beefing up ties as well as easing the rivalry between both sides since after the end of brutal civil war between Mao- led Communist party and Chinag’s Kuomintang in 1949. Chiang Kai Shek and his nationalist Kuomintang party fled, being defeated by Mao Zedong, to China’s Taiwan island and the party had long been ruling the island since 1949 to 2000. They reckoned the island would be reunited with the mainland under nationalist rule. But meanwhile an anti- reunification stance had largely begun to grow among the predominantly ethnic Taiwanese mainly out of Kuomintang’s discriminatory behaviors towards them and with the advent of their Taiwanese Democratic Progressive Party in 1986. During the presidency of the party leader- Chen Shui Bian from 2000 to 2008, he envisioned an independent Taiwan which would be separated from mainland China’s dominance.
He emphasized Taiwanese sovereignty as a most priority issue of the party’s political agenda. However, Taiwan’s relations with mainland China have largely evolved with Kuomintang’s return to power in 2008. President Ma Ying-Jeou’s of Taiwan uninterrupted efforts ,who has long been emphasizing Taiwanese unification under nationalist rule with the mainland have eventually resulted in the recent China- Taiwan talks.
Most of the Taiwanese people are now longing to better their relations with the mainland in order to ameliorate their businesses as well as to assure security issues since China is moving very fast as a rising power.
In January-December 2013, trade volumes between mainland China and Taiwan reached USD197.28 billion from USD102 billion in 2007 as per the report of the Ministry of Commerce of Peoples’ Republic of China. Taiwan is now China’s seventh largest trading partner and fifth largest source of import.
In 2009, Taiwan opened up one hundred of its industries to mainland investments. China and Taiwan have also agreed on allowing banks, insurances and other financial services in both sides’ markets. President Ma Ying-Jeo has called for further development of cultural and educational exchanges with China with continuing conciliatory approach to the mainland. Notwithstanding the issues aforementioned, Taiwan’s geographic location serves a significant strategic role for China in undermining US maritime dominance and its naval base establishments in Pacific and Southeast Asia regions.
China has now about 300 – 400 missiles having range of 120 sea miles aimed at Taiwan in order to counter any potential threats posed by the US. Withal, it has 60 to 70 submarines in the area and strong air defense forces.
It is, however, apparent from the history that geographical location of Taiwan also entices the US into making it a strategic partner as the island depicts same geo-strategic significances to the US in order to defend her strategic interests vis-à-vis China.
During the cold war period, US and Taiwan agreed on “Taiwan Relations Act” essentially for two main purposes of the both parties of the agreement.
First, to combat the rise of communism and aid in the spread of globalization and capitalism. Secondly, the act declared that if any outside nation attacked Taiwan, the US should come to its defense.
Even though the act had lost some of its relevance with the decline of Cold War , maintaining amicable ties with the Taiwanese island is hitherto a ‘strategic necessity’ of the US with a view to keeping its influence uninterrupted in Southeast Asia and Pacific regions and defending its allies -Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
America’s Taiwan policy has long been emphasizing a Taiwanese independence as the US conceives of the possibility that unification of Taiwan would force American interests to fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist.
The Taiwanese motive for independence is largely backed by the US Neo-Conservative Republicans notably George Bush , Colin Powell , Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney as they greatly perceive Beijing ‘s rise would result in a complicated military confrontation with Washington DC. Bush when he was in presidency felt that US should take a more direct role in backing the Taiwan island’s drive towards Independence as the island serves immense geo-strategic significance for the US.
But in contrast, China which has improved its relations with Taiwan over the last some years and longs to keep the island under its jurisdiction has already warned that it will react with its nuclear weapons if any interference be made by the US in China-Taiwan internal affairs and if the US pursues further attempts at provoking a Taiwanese independence.
Hence the situation would obligate the US either to lose to significant extent of its strategic interests in the region or to militarily confront with China that would result in a scourging ravage.
(Tanbir Uddin Arman is a Research Assistant at Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) Dhaka)
