AFP, Washington :
The International Monetary Fund urged central banks Wednesday to take a gradual and transparent approach to tightening monetary policy, warning that unexpected moves could shock the global economy.
The fund cautioned that investors and financial markets expect a steady approach to monetary tightening based on the belief inflation will remain relatively tame.
But the IMF pointed to some fragilities in global finance after a lengthy period of easy money policies and low interest rates, including a flood of high-risk bonds, record-high debt levels and lofty prices for risky assets.
If conditions change abruptly that could even derail the economic recovery, the fund warned.
“Financial vulnerabilities, which have accumulated during years of extremely low rates and volatility, could make the road ahead bumpy and could put growth at risk,” the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report, a twice-annual analysis.
For example, a sudden acceleration of inflation in the United States could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than currently expected.
Such a move could lead to gyrations in financial assets, causing “global financial conditions (to) tighten sharply, with possible adverse consequences for the global economy,” the IMF said.
Emerging markets would be especially vulnerable to “spillovers” if that happens, the report cautions.
“Gradual and well-telegraphed” moves by advanced economy central banks have so far been favorable for emerging economies, but financial flows could fall by “at least one-quarter” if central banks mishandle the transition, the fund said.
The analysis is the latest to tackle the myriad policymaking challenges as the world moves towards end a long period of low interest rates and monetary stimulus enacted after the 2008 financial crisis.
The International Monetary Fund urged central banks Wednesday to take a gradual and transparent approach to tightening monetary policy, warning that unexpected moves could shock the global economy.
The fund cautioned that investors and financial markets expect a steady approach to monetary tightening based on the belief inflation will remain relatively tame.
But the IMF pointed to some fragilities in global finance after a lengthy period of easy money policies and low interest rates, including a flood of high-risk bonds, record-high debt levels and lofty prices for risky assets.
If conditions change abruptly that could even derail the economic recovery, the fund warned.
“Financial vulnerabilities, which have accumulated during years of extremely low rates and volatility, could make the road ahead bumpy and could put growth at risk,” the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report, a twice-annual analysis.
For example, a sudden acceleration of inflation in the United States could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than currently expected.
Such a move could lead to gyrations in financial assets, causing “global financial conditions (to) tighten sharply, with possible adverse consequences for the global economy,” the IMF said.
Emerging markets would be especially vulnerable to “spillovers” if that happens, the report cautions.
“Gradual and well-telegraphed” moves by advanced economy central banks have so far been favorable for emerging economies, but financial flows could fall by “at least one-quarter” if central banks mishandle the transition, the fund said.
The analysis is the latest to tackle the myriad policymaking challenges as the world moves towards end a long period of low interest rates and monetary stimulus enacted after the 2008 financial crisis.
