Dr Mohammad Didare Alam Muhsin :
On 17th December, one day after the Victory Day of Bangladesh, a virtual summit was held between its Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her counterpart Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. Though the meeting was not face-to-face, there was no shortage of pre-preparation or arrangements for a summit. As usual, there was no dearth in the glamour and gravity of the summit as well. Although not held on the Victory Day, the meeting was held in the month of Victory – in the Mujib Year.
As we can see, in broad terms, the meeting marks reopening of the Chilahati-Haldibari rail link after it was cut off during the 1965 Indo-Pak war nearly half a century ago, the culmination of seven Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) signed between Bangladesh and India on cooperation in various sectors including agriculture, trade and energy and the inauguration of three development partnership projects.
The MoUs signed are: cooperation in the field of Agriculture; framework of understanding on cooperation in Hydocarbon Sector; protocol on trans-boundary elephant conservation; cooperation between Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Museum, Dhaka and museum in New Delhi; framework agreement on high impact community development projects; terms of reference of India-Bangladesh CEOs Forum; and supply of Equipment and Improvement of Garbage/ Solid Waste Disposal Ground in Barishal City Corporation. The inaugurated three projects are: the Bangladesh-India Professional Skill Development Institute (BIPSDI) at the Institution of Diploma Engineers Bangladesh (IDEB), Khulna; Vivekananda Bhaban (students’ hostel) at Ramakrishna Mission, Dhaka; and import of bulk LPG from Bangladesh to Tripura through trucks.
In keeping with India’s Neighbourhood First policy, PM Modi assured supply of Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, to be produced in India, on priority basis to Bangladesh when it is ready. He also accepted the invitation to join the golden jubilee celebrations of Bangladesh’s independence next March.
Let’s see, then, what are the big issues between the two countries at the moment? A major issue is the water sharing of 54 common rivers flowing between the two countries. In many of these rivers, unilateral withdrawal of water by dams upstream in the Indian part results in water crisis in Bangladesh part during the dry season. Though the impact of the Farakka Barrage on the Padma has not been resolved, there has been some relief on reaching an agreement on water sharing. The demand for an agreement to ensure that Bangladesh gets its fair share of water in the case of other rivers is long overdue. In particular, an agreement on the Teesta, another major river in the country, has been almost finalized several years back. Many were hoping that the summit meet would come up with a solution on the issue, which did not eventually materialize.
Another major issue between the two countries is border killings. It has become a stigma in the friendly relations between the two countries, which are bound by a very warm and sincere friendship with each other for a long time. According to the Ain O Salish Kendro (ASK), 25 Bangladeshis were killed at the border in the first six months of 2020 (January-June), of which 21 were killed in BSF firing. Border crossings of people living on the frontiers are more or less common across the world. Many of them cross the border only for daily life and livelihood, to go to the market or to meet their relatives on the other side of the border, by evading the eyes of the border guards. However, some people are involved in smuggling. It is pretty much expected that Border guards will take necessary measures to prevent such illegal movement. But, how necessary and acceptable can shooting be to this end? India shares borders with five other countries, including Pakistan and China. Such killings at these borders are almost zero. So, why is it happening in the case of the friendly country Bangladesh?
The Rohingya crisis has become another big issue for Bangladesh. About 1.1 million Rohingya refugees have taken refuge in Bangladesh after being displaced from Rakhine State at various times due to state persecution by the Myanmar government. As always, Bangladesh continues to try to resolve this issue diplomatically. So far, however, there has been no apparent progress in repatriating refugees due to a lack of appropriate response from the Myanmar government. India and China, two neighboring friendly countries, have an opportunity to play an important role here. So far, however, their position appears to have been indirectly in Myanmar’s favor. At first glance, it may seem as if they are in a race to see who gets closer to Myanmar. Although both countries have important geopolitical and economic interests in Bangladesh, do they seem to feel the need to take Bangladesh too seriously in this regard? Are they considering Bangladesh as a weak opponent? Or, they have assumed that, no matter what happens, Bangladesh is bound to stay with them.
It may be mentioned here that in various states of India, including Assam, a conspiracy has been started to push a section of the Bengali population living there to Bangladesh under the name of The National Register of Citizens (NRC). If the repatriation of Rohingya refugees could not be ensured, these insidious quarters may feel motivated to go ahead with their plans.
Another important issue in Bangladesh-India relations is Bangladesh’s huge trade deficit in its trade with India. According to the Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh imported goods worth 7,647 million from India in 2019, while exporting goods worth 930.6 million at the same time. In other words, Bangladesh has a trade deficit of 6,717 million with India this year. India is a much bigger market than Bangladesh in terms of population. So, why Bangladesh is not able to do good business there? Whatever the reason, this huge trade deficit indicates that Indian goods are entering Bangladesh without hindrance, but Bangladeshi goods are not gaining similar free access to the Indian market. This issue has come up as a regular issue in Bangladesh-India talks. The statistics show that no significant progress has been made so far.
If you keep adding issues one by one in this way, the list will be longer and longer. However, broadly speaking, these may be the burning issues of the moment. Now let’s take a look at what India wanted from Bangladesh. Evacuation of Indian rebel bases, if any, inside Bangladesh and the use of Bangladesh’s sea- and river-ports and the road-rail-river network to facilitate short-haul cargo transit to India’s northeastern states were India’s main demands on Bangladesh. And almost all of these demands have been met. Although the first demand was considered as a fair demand of a country, the issue of transit facilities was not an essential necessity. On the other hand, most of the demands of Bangladesh mentioned above are just due, not a matter of kindness.
On 17th December, one day after the Victory Day of Bangladesh, a virtual summit was held between its Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her counterpart Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi. Though the meeting was not face-to-face, there was no shortage of pre-preparation or arrangements for a summit. As usual, there was no dearth in the glamour and gravity of the summit as well. Although not held on the Victory Day, the meeting was held in the month of Victory – in the Mujib Year.
As we can see, in broad terms, the meeting marks reopening of the Chilahati-Haldibari rail link after it was cut off during the 1965 Indo-Pak war nearly half a century ago, the culmination of seven Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) signed between Bangladesh and India on cooperation in various sectors including agriculture, trade and energy and the inauguration of three development partnership projects.
The MoUs signed are: cooperation in the field of Agriculture; framework of understanding on cooperation in Hydocarbon Sector; protocol on trans-boundary elephant conservation; cooperation between Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Museum, Dhaka and museum in New Delhi; framework agreement on high impact community development projects; terms of reference of India-Bangladesh CEOs Forum; and supply of Equipment and Improvement of Garbage/ Solid Waste Disposal Ground in Barishal City Corporation. The inaugurated three projects are: the Bangladesh-India Professional Skill Development Institute (BIPSDI) at the Institution of Diploma Engineers Bangladesh (IDEB), Khulna; Vivekananda Bhaban (students’ hostel) at Ramakrishna Mission, Dhaka; and import of bulk LPG from Bangladesh to Tripura through trucks.
In keeping with India’s Neighbourhood First policy, PM Modi assured supply of Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine, to be produced in India, on priority basis to Bangladesh when it is ready. He also accepted the invitation to join the golden jubilee celebrations of Bangladesh’s independence next March.
Let’s see, then, what are the big issues between the two countries at the moment? A major issue is the water sharing of 54 common rivers flowing between the two countries. In many of these rivers, unilateral withdrawal of water by dams upstream in the Indian part results in water crisis in Bangladesh part during the dry season. Though the impact of the Farakka Barrage on the Padma has not been resolved, there has been some relief on reaching an agreement on water sharing. The demand for an agreement to ensure that Bangladesh gets its fair share of water in the case of other rivers is long overdue. In particular, an agreement on the Teesta, another major river in the country, has been almost finalized several years back. Many were hoping that the summit meet would come up with a solution on the issue, which did not eventually materialize.
Another major issue between the two countries is border killings. It has become a stigma in the friendly relations between the two countries, which are bound by a very warm and sincere friendship with each other for a long time. According to the Ain O Salish Kendro (ASK), 25 Bangladeshis were killed at the border in the first six months of 2020 (January-June), of which 21 were killed in BSF firing. Border crossings of people living on the frontiers are more or less common across the world. Many of them cross the border only for daily life and livelihood, to go to the market or to meet their relatives on the other side of the border, by evading the eyes of the border guards. However, some people are involved in smuggling. It is pretty much expected that Border guards will take necessary measures to prevent such illegal movement. But, how necessary and acceptable can shooting be to this end? India shares borders with five other countries, including Pakistan and China. Such killings at these borders are almost zero. So, why is it happening in the case of the friendly country Bangladesh?
The Rohingya crisis has become another big issue for Bangladesh. About 1.1 million Rohingya refugees have taken refuge in Bangladesh after being displaced from Rakhine State at various times due to state persecution by the Myanmar government. As always, Bangladesh continues to try to resolve this issue diplomatically. So far, however, there has been no apparent progress in repatriating refugees due to a lack of appropriate response from the Myanmar government. India and China, two neighboring friendly countries, have an opportunity to play an important role here. So far, however, their position appears to have been indirectly in Myanmar’s favor. At first glance, it may seem as if they are in a race to see who gets closer to Myanmar. Although both countries have important geopolitical and economic interests in Bangladesh, do they seem to feel the need to take Bangladesh too seriously in this regard? Are they considering Bangladesh as a weak opponent? Or, they have assumed that, no matter what happens, Bangladesh is bound to stay with them.
It may be mentioned here that in various states of India, including Assam, a conspiracy has been started to push a section of the Bengali population living there to Bangladesh under the name of The National Register of Citizens (NRC). If the repatriation of Rohingya refugees could not be ensured, these insidious quarters may feel motivated to go ahead with their plans.
Another important issue in Bangladesh-India relations is Bangladesh’s huge trade deficit in its trade with India. According to the Bureau of Statistics, Bangladesh imported goods worth 7,647 million from India in 2019, while exporting goods worth 930.6 million at the same time. In other words, Bangladesh has a trade deficit of 6,717 million with India this year. India is a much bigger market than Bangladesh in terms of population. So, why Bangladesh is not able to do good business there? Whatever the reason, this huge trade deficit indicates that Indian goods are entering Bangladesh without hindrance, but Bangladeshi goods are not gaining similar free access to the Indian market. This issue has come up as a regular issue in Bangladesh-India talks. The statistics show that no significant progress has been made so far.
If you keep adding issues one by one in this way, the list will be longer and longer. However, broadly speaking, these may be the burning issues of the moment. Now let’s take a look at what India wanted from Bangladesh. Evacuation of Indian rebel bases, if any, inside Bangladesh and the use of Bangladesh’s sea- and river-ports and the road-rail-river network to facilitate short-haul cargo transit to India’s northeastern states were India’s main demands on Bangladesh. And almost all of these demands have been met. Although the first demand was considered as a fair demand of a country, the issue of transit facilities was not an essential necessity. On the other hand, most of the demands of Bangladesh mentioned above are just due, not a matter of kindness.
(Dr Muhsin is Professor of Pharmacy, Jahangirnagar University).
