Staff Reporter :
Country’s leading economists, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and other international agencies have predicted that the global economic growth is expected to slow down before the end of the year due to volatile situation across the world.
Besides, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has also put a negative impact globally as many countries including Bangladesh have been suffering.
Against this backdrop, the government of Bangladesh on Wednesday set a $67 billion export target for the current fiscal year.
Of the export target, $58 billion will come from merchandise goods exporting and $9 billion from the service sector.
“We are hopeful that the target would be achieved as the international buyers are placing work orders in Bangladesh even at the time of volatile global situation. The Russia-Ukraine war impacts have also been considered in fixing the export target for the current fiscal year,” Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi said while unveiling the export targets both for merchandise and services sectors at a press conference in the secretariat on Wednesday.
He said that the Russia-Ukraine war has also been affecting the supply chains and raising prices of many necessary commodities, especially food items.
“Inflation and joblessness are increasing in the USA and Europe. According to the IMF, the global growth rate would be 4.4 percent, and in the next year it might be even lower. The backbone of any country’s economic development is finding suitable policies and implementing them timely. Also, the government’s assistance in helping the private sector’s growth is important,” the Commerce Minister observed.
In the last fiscal year, Bangladesh earned $52.08 billion from merchandise shipment which is 19.73 percent higher than the target of $43.5 billion, according to data of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).
Similarly, some $8.0 billion was earned from the services sectors against the target of $7.5 billion which is 6.67 percent higher than the target.
Overall, both from merchandise and services sectors, some $60.08 billion was earned in the last fiscal year (FY22) registering 17.80 percent higher growth than the target of $51.0 billion, the EPB data said.
However, the World Bank’s latest global economic forecast warned that most countries should begin preparing for a recession. It added that the global economy had already been impaired by the aftereffects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which left international supply chains in tatters and significantly hampered income growth and poverty reduction efforts in developing countries.
According to Tipu Munshi, “The export target has been fixed considering the recession situation. Otherwise, it would have been higher. Bangladesh is getting some global geopolitical benefits. Orders from the USA have shifted from China for which Bangladesh along with Vietnam, Cambodia, India, and Pakistan are enjoying the benefit of it.”
The minister said that the rising cases of Covid-19, inflation, demand loss, and heatwave in the west may pose some risk to the export target.
“This is the first time export to a single country is crossing $10 billion, and that this country is the USA. Of the $10 billion earned from exporting to the USA, $9 billion came from the RMG sector. I am myself an RMG exporter and have been BGMEA President. I think the RMG orders will not decline,” he added.
Production will not be hampered by load shedding and rationing, he said adding that the load shedding won’t be year-long, it is only temporary.
According to the recently passed FY22-23 budget, Bangladesh’s GDP growth rate is 7.25 percent. The current fiscal year’s export target is 11 percent higher than the last fiscal.
Meanwhile, the actual export of the ready-made garment sector during the last fiscal was $42.2 billion. The target has been made $46 billion in the current fiscal for this sector.
Bangladesh’s ready-made garments industry has been bracing for another battle for survival as most factories are getting orders less than 30 percent of their capacity as record inflation rates across Europe and the US make consumers less willing to loosen their purse strings for new outfits and fashion accessories.
Meanwhile, some business leaders said that it would be difficult to achieve the export target considering the present global economic situation.
Export-oriented industries should get gas and electricity on a priority basis and the currency should be made export friendly in accordance with the competitive countries, they said.
