AFTER the Prime Minister’s recent visit to China let us delve deep into a cost benefit matrix of what we have got and what we could and should have gotten. Dejected and weakened by the humiliating defeat of Congress led UPA alliance in the Indian parliamentary election, the Awami League regime has reactivated the “look east” diplomacy nodes again. It’s welcoming that, though being bounded by circumstances, we are diversifying our portfolio. But, since China is not run by uninformed persons, the leaders of Chinese Communist Party know very well whom to deal with for long term relations. Few deals were signed with China, however, there was no firm commitment from the Chinese side regarding the most important and biggest issue – the construction of the Sonadia Deep-Sea Port, which could cost about $14 billion. Dhaka and Beijing signed two agreements, one Memorandum of Understanding and two exchange of letters (EoLs) to enhance mutual cooperation in sectors like trade and investment, power generation and climate change. Of the two agreements, one is on establishing a coal-based 1,320 megawatt power plant in Patuakhali and another on economic and technical cooperation between China and Bangladesh. The Memorandum of understanding is on the construction of a multilane tunnel under the Karnaphuli River. The EoLs are on the exchange of a second batch of calamity rescue equipment between Bangladesh and China and over a feasibility study on flood prevention and management in Bangladesh. The issue of constructing the Sonadia Deep-Sea Port was present in the talks, but a cold response from the Chinese side led to its status of “Let’s continue the discussions”. As proposed by China, the two sides had earlier agreed to sign a framework agreement on the deep-sea port during Hasina’s visit. But the deal became uncertain just before she left for China on June 6. Officials at the Foreign Ministry said Dhaka declined to sign the agreement on the deep-sea port following differences of opinions and a shifting of the Chinese position. They said China had agreed to provide a soft loan for the port construction but later changed its mind and offered a commercial loan. It also set the precondition that it would do the design, construction and operation of the port. The conditions that China put forth was undoubtedly whimsical, but the essential question needs to be asked are why China is suddenly acting sporadically?We strongly believe that, it is reasonably understandable that China will not be interested to invest in such a big and time consuming project with a government which suffers from severe legitimacy crisis. China will not jeopardize its national interest by signing a deal with a government which is in a very feeble and precarious position and does not have a popular mandate. We welcome the government’s move towards our friends in the east after what we have seen as an unprecedented single handed almost totalitarian mastership by our big neighbour. But if the results from this visit by the PM tells anything it is probably that the Chinese will adopt a wait and see approach. So, this visit is again a wakeup call that no sustainable and long run economic progress is possible by a government which does not have a strong footing and legitimacy. A meaningful and authentic democratic transition is the way forward.The Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina have placed too much reliance on what her protected and undeserved beneficiaries told her about success of such foreign trips. The advisers are getting rich and enjoying expensive foreign trips with the Prime Minister. The crisis of political instability is a matter of political uncertainty any government without popular support has to face. No adviser can conceal the reality except from ignorant ones.
