Dr. Forqan Uddin Ahmed :
The geopolitics of South Asia is changing dramatically in recent times. Asia’s two nuclear-armed neighbors, India and China, are engaged in a game of influence in this region.
Both these countries are constantly working to maintain their dominance in geopolitics by bringing South Asian countries under their control. Vaccine diplomacy has been added to the race to dominate in this critical time of the Corona pandemic.
Apart from vaccine diplomacy, India is also pursuing various initiatives to expand its influence in South Asian countries. The country is constantly trying to dominate by signing trade, defense cooperation and strategic agreements with South Asian countries. India makes good use of its geographical position to dominate the geopolitics of South Asia. On the other hand, China, one of the economic and military powers in Asia, has already emerged as a major player in South Asian geopolitics.
China, however, is not a South Asian country like India. But China’s interest in South Asian geopolitics is growing. In South Asia, China wants to rein in India’s hegemony. In almost all the countries of South Asia, China is participating in the development of the countries through economic assistance and investment. Using its economic power, China has been able to build warm relations with almost all the countries in South Asia except India.
The key factor in Bangladesh’s geopolitical play is its geography. The country shares land borders with Myanmar and India. Towards the sea, Bangladesh maintains three – Chattogram, Mongla and Payra – out of the 12 ports in the Bay of Bengal. India, an economically emerging state, spans three sides of the border with Bangladesh and, now more than ever, has a keen eye for Bangladesh’s strategies and policies. Due to its geographical position, Bangladesh is a natural link between South Asia and Southeast Asia. Therefore, any regional coordination between the giant trade blocs of the Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (Saarc) has to include Bangladesh. The country is also a vital geopolitical ally to India, in that it has the potential to facilitate greater integration between Northeast India and Central India.
Bangladesh has so far maintained a ‘balancing game’ between China and India. But it is difficult and risky to keep this balance, because failure to maintain balance can create animosity with any one. Therefore, the success of Bangladesh’s foreign policy will depend on how efficiently Bangladesh can walk on the ‘rope’ of this balance. By making proper use of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh can become a hub of the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor and contribute to communication between South Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and China. But for that, Bangladesh must be at the forefront and long-term national interest must be given priority.
In addition to the Sino-Indian conflict, the quad has become another important factor in the geopolitics of South Asia. Recently, this alliance has created quite a stir in international politics. The main objective of the Quad, comprising the United States, Japan, Australia and India, is to make the Indo-Pacific region more effective in the international arena. China sees it as a threat to its sovereignty, independence, security, free trade and maritime cooperation between the member states. According to international relations analysts, China’s concern over the quad is due to recent US efforts to expand the quad into the quad-plus. China fears that the United States may pressurize Bangladesh to join the quad through India. If Bangladesh joins the quad in the face of that pressure, it could be a big headache for China. Meanwhile, the Chinese ambassador has also expressed concern over the issue. As a result, Bangladesh has faced a diplomatic challenge.
Another major diplomatic hurdle for Bangladesh is the ongoing Rohingya refugee crisis. The country currently hosts more than a million displaced Rohingyas from neighbouring Myanmar. Since the inception of the crisis, efforts made by the Bangladesh government for Rohingya repatriation have been inadequate. Decisive diplomatic actions must be there to accelerate the repatriation process. The willingness of the Myanmar government to provide repatriation seems uncertain, while the United Nations and other international humanitarian agencies don’t appear to be proactive enough. Although some Western countries have been delivering relief funds, this can’t be a permanent solution. The recent military coup in Myanmar and the assassination of Rohingya leader MohibUllah make the situation more complicated.
The European Union (EU) is Bangladesh’s largest trade partner. The EU’s aid to Bangladesh also accounts for 40 percent of the total aid that the country receives from the rest of the world. Although the EU-Bangladesh relationship seems aid-centric, there are other areas to work on to realise this relationship’s full potential.
Only the impartial and balanced foreign policy will play a significant role in the geopolitical condition of Bangladesh. Moreover, sound relationship with neighboring countries will strengthen Bangladesh’s geopolitical position. It is important to note that connectivity with the US, UK and EU must get the maximamhight and priority to be foucused.
(The writer is former Deputy Director General, Bangladesh Ansar and VDP).
