Md. Mazharul Islam & Md. Monirul Islam :
The COVID-19 pandemic is considered the most disastrous torment which the humankind has faced ever since World War II. Although the breeding ground of the pandemic is the China, the Asian country, now the virus has spread to each and every corner of the world except Antarctica. Infected cases are rising dramatically with its substantial quantity of deaths. As of June 11, 2020 about 7.5 million infected cases are detected and death tolls counted for 419.5 thousand. Bangladesh as a nascent developing country of South Asian region has been suffering drastically due to COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to the rapidity rate of infections and deaths. Moreover, Bangladesh is in a potential dilemma how to manage the pandemic as it has spread almost all the areas of the country. As the living place of 21 million people, the capital city, Dhaka is experiencing around 11849 infection cases as of June 11, 2020. This calls for the immediate investigation in detecting zone-based cases in order to set strategy for flattening the curve of COVID-19 pandemic by curbing this menace.
To respond to the intensity of pandemic, the government of Bangladesh intends to adopt the further scheme of lockdown in the forms of ‘hard’, ‘partial’ and ‘no lockdown’ in the Dhaka Metropolitan (DMP) area. In this backdrop, we attempted to detect the numbers of COVID-19 infection case density arisen in the (DMP) so as to suggest the policymakers executing the lockdown considering the magnitude of infections. No governmental effort without systemic examination would sustain to counter the COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh especially Dhaka city.
By using the density measurement approach, we tried to locate all the Thana under DMP where the number of infection cases existed in per square kilometer (case density) of these areas. In addition, we also attempted to find the literacy rates of the people in these specific areas for measuring the level of consciousness among them concerning COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesized that higher the literacy rate, higher the awareness of COVID-19 pandemic among the people in any part of Bangladesh particularly Dhaka city. To persuade the objective of the analysis, we used the data of Bangladesh Population Census 2011 collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and also utilized the same data in the case of the partition of Thana across the DMP. Besides, data of virus infections were collected from the Bangladesh government’s newly developed corona-updates website, www.corona.gov.bd.
In the analysis, the highly infected area in terms of case density is denoted ranged from 171 to 300, medium from 81 to 170 and lower from 1 to 80 cases per square km of area (Fig.1). The findings of the analysis depict that highly affected Thana are 7 in numbers including Tejgaon, Mirpur Model, Rampura, Kalabagan, Paltan, Sutrapur and Ramna; medium affected areas are 8 in numbers including Adabor, Dhanmondi, Kotwali, Sabujbagh, Gulshan, Mohammadpur, Gendaria, Chawkbazar Model; and lower affected areas include the remaining 24 Thana of DMP.
Another interesting finding of the analysis is that the areas with higher literacy rate (71-90%) are associated with higher infection rate of COVID-19 pandemic in Dhaka Metropolitan area (Fig. 2). This is because of the sizes as well as the population density of these highly educated areas. Besides, major infrastructures i.e. governmental and non-government offices, hospitals, schools, colleges are established in these areas. Therefore, our hypothesis-higher literacy rate ensures lower infection case in terms of people’s consciousness about COVID-19 pandemic, which is not supported in our analysis. On the other hand, people living in low infected area are less literate as per our findings.
The findings of the analysis have substantial policy implication considering the likelihood of governmental further effort of hard lockdown. We argue that highly and medium infected areas can be taken under hard and partial lockdown respectively. Besides, people living in lower infected areas with lower literacy rate who are usually unaware of proper health behavior relating to COVID-19 pandemic. In this respect, government can keep these areas beyond lockdown but initiate effective awareness campaign about COVID-19 pandemic. More importantly, law enforcers are recommended to facilitate the people in maintaining social distance and overall health behaviors especially where literacy rate is comparatively lower. Necessarily, protective materials like hand sanitizers, face and head masks, hand gloves and goggles etc. could be provided for the inhabitants of these areas who are poor and middle class. Moreover, the COVID-19 zoning of affected areas are labeled as green, yellow and red in terms of the intensity of infection, which might be the key pointer to the policymakers in taking the decision of lockdown enforcement. Finally, the scheme of lockdown and awareness campaign is very critical to flatten the upward sloping curve of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.
The COVID-19 pandemic is considered the most disastrous torment which the humankind has faced ever since World War II. Although the breeding ground of the pandemic is the China, the Asian country, now the virus has spread to each and every corner of the world except Antarctica. Infected cases are rising dramatically with its substantial quantity of deaths. As of June 11, 2020 about 7.5 million infected cases are detected and death tolls counted for 419.5 thousand. Bangladesh as a nascent developing country of South Asian region has been suffering drastically due to COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to the rapidity rate of infections and deaths. Moreover, Bangladesh is in a potential dilemma how to manage the pandemic as it has spread almost all the areas of the country. As the living place of 21 million people, the capital city, Dhaka is experiencing around 11849 infection cases as of June 11, 2020. This calls for the immediate investigation in detecting zone-based cases in order to set strategy for flattening the curve of COVID-19 pandemic by curbing this menace.
To respond to the intensity of pandemic, the government of Bangladesh intends to adopt the further scheme of lockdown in the forms of ‘hard’, ‘partial’ and ‘no lockdown’ in the Dhaka Metropolitan (DMP) area. In this backdrop, we attempted to detect the numbers of COVID-19 infection case density arisen in the (DMP) so as to suggest the policymakers executing the lockdown considering the magnitude of infections. No governmental effort without systemic examination would sustain to counter the COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh especially Dhaka city.
By using the density measurement approach, we tried to locate all the Thana under DMP where the number of infection cases existed in per square kilometer (case density) of these areas. In addition, we also attempted to find the literacy rates of the people in these specific areas for measuring the level of consciousness among them concerning COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesized that higher the literacy rate, higher the awareness of COVID-19 pandemic among the people in any part of Bangladesh particularly Dhaka city. To persuade the objective of the analysis, we used the data of Bangladesh Population Census 2011 collected from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and also utilized the same data in the case of the partition of Thana across the DMP. Besides, data of virus infections were collected from the Bangladesh government’s newly developed corona-updates website, www.corona.gov.bd.
In the analysis, the highly infected area in terms of case density is denoted ranged from 171 to 300, medium from 81 to 170 and lower from 1 to 80 cases per square km of area (Fig.1). The findings of the analysis depict that highly affected Thana are 7 in numbers including Tejgaon, Mirpur Model, Rampura, Kalabagan, Paltan, Sutrapur and Ramna; medium affected areas are 8 in numbers including Adabor, Dhanmondi, Kotwali, Sabujbagh, Gulshan, Mohammadpur, Gendaria, Chawkbazar Model; and lower affected areas include the remaining 24 Thana of DMP.
Another interesting finding of the analysis is that the areas with higher literacy rate (71-90%) are associated with higher infection rate of COVID-19 pandemic in Dhaka Metropolitan area (Fig. 2). This is because of the sizes as well as the population density of these highly educated areas. Besides, major infrastructures i.e. governmental and non-government offices, hospitals, schools, colleges are established in these areas. Therefore, our hypothesis-higher literacy rate ensures lower infection case in terms of people’s consciousness about COVID-19 pandemic, which is not supported in our analysis. On the other hand, people living in low infected area are less literate as per our findings.
The findings of the analysis have substantial policy implication considering the likelihood of governmental further effort of hard lockdown. We argue that highly and medium infected areas can be taken under hard and partial lockdown respectively. Besides, people living in lower infected areas with lower literacy rate who are usually unaware of proper health behavior relating to COVID-19 pandemic. In this respect, government can keep these areas beyond lockdown but initiate effective awareness campaign about COVID-19 pandemic. More importantly, law enforcers are recommended to facilitate the people in maintaining social distance and overall health behaviors especially where literacy rate is comparatively lower. Necessarily, protective materials like hand sanitizers, face and head masks, hand gloves and goggles etc. could be provided for the inhabitants of these areas who are poor and middle class. Moreover, the COVID-19 zoning of affected areas are labeled as green, yellow and red in terms of the intensity of infection, which might be the key pointer to the policymakers in taking the decision of lockdown enforcement. Finally, the scheme of lockdown and awareness campaign is very critical to flatten the upward sloping curve of COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.
Md. Mazharul Islam is Research
Associate, Bangladesh Institute of Governance and Management (BIGM), University of Dhaka Affilt.,
Dhaka-1207, email: [email protected]
Md. Monirul Islam is Assistant Professor, BIGM, University of Dhaka Affilt., Dhaka-1207,
email: [email protected]
