BBC Online :
In just under five months Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton may be sleeping soundly in the White House. Before election day arrives on 8 November, however, she may be tossing and turning in bed, wondering if there’s something out there that could derail her presidential ambitions.
While the former first lady has a poll lead that ranges from dead heat to slightly ahead and an electoral playing field that gives her a decided advantage, Republican nominee Donald Trump – despite an up-and-down past month – remains in striking distance. Whether this is a reflection of Mrs Clinton’s weaknesses as a candidate or Mr Trump’s unconventional appeal, the reality is the race could still tip towards the Republican if something breaks his way. Here are five reasons why Mrs Clinton could suffer from election-related insomnia despite conventional wisdom that has favoured her for months. There are the things a candidate can control – the message, the on-the-ground organising, the advertising campaigns. Then there are the “black swans” – unpredictable one-off events that can render all of those preparations irrelevant.
If Mrs Clinton occasionally wakes in a cold sweat between now and November, it could be because she’s afraid of something totally out of her control. Given that Mrs Clinton’s poll standings have closely tracked American confidence in the economy, a financial collapse could prove devastating to her candidacy.
A terrorist attack on US soil could also turn the race on its head. Although Mr Trump is widely viewed as mishandling his response to the Orlando shootings in June, the November
attacks in Paris proved a boon to his primary campaign. A high-profile incident could make many Americans take another look at those who would be their commander in chief.
Then there are natural disasters and the competency of the ensuing government response. Hurricane Sandy helped boost President Barack Obama’s standing in 2012, while Hurricane Katrina devastated the Republicans in 2005. If tragedy strikes, there’s no telling how the politics of the situation could play out.
Hillary’s fear: As any horror movie aficionado knows, the scariest monster is the one that’s unseen. An “October surprise” on the eve of an election is the under-the-bed bogeyman that every politician dreads.
Ms Clinton has seen her ratings for honesty and trustworthiness damaged by stories relating to donations by foreign actors to the Clinton Foundation and her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.
Although the information that has emerged has been embarrassing, and the FBI investigation into her email practices paint an at-times-unflattering picture, they have not presented a mortal threat to her candidacy… yet.
But what if damning evidence surfaces – a “smoking gun” that even her supporters can’t explain away? There’s currently a batch of 17,000 emails the FBI recovered from Mrs Clinton’s server – documents not originally handed over to the government by Clinton personnel – that is being reviewed by the state department and will probably be made public by the end of October.
Then there’s the possibility of more hacked Democratic communications being published by WikiLeaks. The group’s founder, Julian Assange, has already hinted that Clinton-related documents could come out before the election.
In just under five months Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton may be sleeping soundly in the White House. Before election day arrives on 8 November, however, she may be tossing and turning in bed, wondering if there’s something out there that could derail her presidential ambitions.
While the former first lady has a poll lead that ranges from dead heat to slightly ahead and an electoral playing field that gives her a decided advantage, Republican nominee Donald Trump – despite an up-and-down past month – remains in striking distance. Whether this is a reflection of Mrs Clinton’s weaknesses as a candidate or Mr Trump’s unconventional appeal, the reality is the race could still tip towards the Republican if something breaks his way. Here are five reasons why Mrs Clinton could suffer from election-related insomnia despite conventional wisdom that has favoured her for months. There are the things a candidate can control – the message, the on-the-ground organising, the advertising campaigns. Then there are the “black swans” – unpredictable one-off events that can render all of those preparations irrelevant.
If Mrs Clinton occasionally wakes in a cold sweat between now and November, it could be because she’s afraid of something totally out of her control. Given that Mrs Clinton’s poll standings have closely tracked American confidence in the economy, a financial collapse could prove devastating to her candidacy.
A terrorist attack on US soil could also turn the race on its head. Although Mr Trump is widely viewed as mishandling his response to the Orlando shootings in June, the November
attacks in Paris proved a boon to his primary campaign. A high-profile incident could make many Americans take another look at those who would be their commander in chief.
Then there are natural disasters and the competency of the ensuing government response. Hurricane Sandy helped boost President Barack Obama’s standing in 2012, while Hurricane Katrina devastated the Republicans in 2005. If tragedy strikes, there’s no telling how the politics of the situation could play out.
Hillary’s fear: As any horror movie aficionado knows, the scariest monster is the one that’s unseen. An “October surprise” on the eve of an election is the under-the-bed bogeyman that every politician dreads.
Ms Clinton has seen her ratings for honesty and trustworthiness damaged by stories relating to donations by foreign actors to the Clinton Foundation and her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.
Although the information that has emerged has been embarrassing, and the FBI investigation into her email practices paint an at-times-unflattering picture, they have not presented a mortal threat to her candidacy… yet.
But what if damning evidence surfaces – a “smoking gun” that even her supporters can’t explain away? There’s currently a batch of 17,000 emails the FBI recovered from Mrs Clinton’s server – documents not originally handed over to the government by Clinton personnel – that is being reviewed by the state department and will probably be made public by the end of October.
Then there’s the possibility of more hacked Democratic communications being published by WikiLeaks. The group’s founder, Julian Assange, has already hinted that Clinton-related documents could come out before the election.
